Mellinger Minutes: John Dorsey, Kareem Hunt and everything to know about Chiefs-Browns
We come here today to pay appropriate respect to John Dorsey.
This weekend, at an undisclosed location, Dorsey will watch two teams he had a big influence in building compete against each other in the playoffs.
In the long history of the NFL, how many men have been able to say that?
The Chiefs went 2-14 the year before Dorsey was hired as general manager, along with head coach Andy Reid. He was fired — technically, he and the Chiefs “mutually agreed to part ways” lol — after the 2017 draft.
In his four seasons leading the front office, the Chiefs won more games than they had in the previous seven and acquired eventual Pro Bowlers Eric Fisher, Travis Kelce, Dee Ford, Marcus Peters, D.J. Alexander, Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, Alex Smith, Mitchell Schwartz*, and Anthony Sherman.
* Schwartz, hilariously, has not made a Pro Bowl but that’s ridiculous and he was a first-team All-Pro (a higher honor) in 2018 so I’m including him here anyway.
The Browns went 0-16 the year before Dorsey was hired as general manager. In his first draft in charge the Browns selected Baker Mayfield, Denzel Ward, and Nick Chubb. Dorsey also acquired Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Greedy Williams, Kareem Hunt, Sheldon Richardson, and Olivier Vernon.
Dorsey was fired after the 2019 season. The Browns have won as many games in the three seasons since his hiring as they did in the previous seven.
That’s an incredible accomplishment, helping reshape two organizations that were fundamentally lost into the reigning Super Bowl champion and a franchise that just won its first playoff game in a generation. Smart and dedicated football men can work their entire lives and not achieve something like that.
Now, there is another side to this. We know this. Dorsey has been fired twice in three years by two franchises that were getting better. He left the Chiefs with salary cap problems, and has been described as a poor leader of a department.
We also know the Chiefs’ earth-shifting selection of Mahomes was more about now-GM Brett Veach and Andy Reid, and that the Chiefs continued to remake the roster — Tyrann Mathieu, Frank Clark, Juan Thornhill, Anthony Hitchens, Bashaud Breeland, Charvarius Ward, Damien Williams, Sammy Watkins, etc. — between his firing and the Super Bowl win.
So, sure. There are reasons he’s not currently a general manager.
But as he’s reportedly in the mix for various openings, how many candidates have a better interview presentation than: Look, buddy-boy, how about you turn on the TV Sunday afternoon and see if there are any players you like?
This is a sort of superficial point, I suppose, and by this point Dorsey’s name is probably as relevant to Chiefs fans as Herm Edwards’.
But the man did some good things here, and had a significant part in ushering the Chiefs from the tragic clown show of 2012 to what is now the most successful stretch of franchise history.
That part is worth mentioning, too.
This week’s eating recommendation is the Señor Chang at The Bite, and the reading recommendation is Janny Scott on how Neil Sheehan got the Pentagon Papers.
* Yes, it’s probably best for journalism nerds, but what do you expect from me?
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We’ll get into this more here below and throughout the week, but the Browns are capable of beating the Chiefs.
As I’m typing this right now the Chiefs are favored by 10 points, which is an implied win probability of 84 percent according to the first result on a Google search.
I know it’s tempting to see that as a lock, but 84 percent free throw shooters miss, and the Browns do have a path here. Their secondary can be had, but Myles Garrett is one of the league’s best pass rushers and will be going against a group that — last we saw — was trending in the wrong direction.
On offense, the Browns have a terrific line that should be able to provide Baker Mayfield time to throw and Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt lanes to run. Jarvis Landry is their best playmaking pass catcher, but Rashad Higgins has come on lately and Austin Hooper is formidable over the middle.
Again: we’ll dive deeper into all of this below.
The Browns might be the best of the four possible matchups for the Chiefs. Whatever it’s worth, I ranked the Colts as the best, based mostly on 39-year-old Philip Rivers. But there’s a case for the Browns as well, one that centers mostly on the secondary being vulnerable and Olivier Vernon being injured and unable to provide that complementary rusher for Garrett.
So, anyway, the Chiefs are the deserved favorite and I’m expecting them to win. I believe it’s more likely the game ends with the Chiefs in victory formation than it does with the Browns celebrating.
But the Browns can win this game. It’s unlikely, but not impossible.
The potential exists that the Browns just won their Super Bowl. That’s a thing that may be true, and if it is then the Browns could be some old-school, vintage, Brandon Weeden-, Hugh Jackson-kind of Browns this weekend.
But the Chiefs aren’t going to count on that, and I’m not telling you how to fan, but if I were you I wouldn’t either.
Because this is a good team, you guys. They force turnovers, they have perhaps the league’s best offensive line, with enough weapons that would not be bringing a knife to a shootout.
But that’s probably a little beside the point. When we (or JuJu Smith-Schuster) say “Browns is the Browns,” the implication is that no matter how many shiny objects they have on the roster they are still doomed by a failed infrastructure and general organizational competence.
I find that to be patently false.
Think about what the Browns just did: they beat a team that’s owned them, in the playoffs, on the road in a city they had won just six of the previous 48. They did this with their head coach and best lineman out with COVID-19, and after a week of preparation disrupted by the virus.
They also did it convincingly.
The Chiefs are objectively better than the Browns, and will be deservedly picked to win by virtually everyone.
But this isn’t a playoff game against the Jets. This Browns team is better than the Texans team the Chiefs got in this round last season, for instance.
That’s one way to look at it!
Here’s another:
This isn’t really helpful for the point, but I’ve come to think that the way fans and a lot of us in the media see these things says more about the person doing the analysis than it does about what’s being analyzed.
If you are the type of fan who just thinks MAHOMES, then you’re probably thinking a lot about how what’s left of Ben Roethlisberger just threw for 501 yards against the Browns.
If you are the type of fan who still thinks about Dee Ford lining up offsides, or about what might’ve happened if Bill O’Brien or Dan Sorensen didn’t exist in the division round last year, then you’re probably thinking about how the Chiefs’ defense is built around the pass rush and the Browns have arguably the best pass protection in the league.
I’m part of this too. We all are. So it probably says something about me that I believe the Chiefs should win this game, but that I also believe the Browns have a path here, and that the Chiefs’ road to the Super Bowl will be more difficult now than it was last year.
And isn’t that the way it should be?
This could be a shootout. The Browns have played three playoff teams since December, and put more than 40 on each of them.
They deploy a wicked throw-run combination, which makes it hard on the linebackers and safeties on playaction.
There was a lot to be impressed by from the Browns on Sunday night, but the top of that list for me would be how well the offensive line held up against a tough front and with guys who’d hardly practiced together.
The Chiefs’ defense — and the pass rush specifically — has shown subtle signs of improvement as the season has gone on.
The trend isn’t as strong as it was a year ago, but it’s still there. The defense played well with the notable exceptions of the fourth quarters against good teams like the Bucs, Dolphins and Saints.
All things considered, the Falcons game was probably the best of the year for the defense, and a lot of that was on the front seven — fewer than 100 yards total and 4.0 per try, and four sacks with consistent pressure.
There are reasons to believe this is more than happenstance. The Chiefs are relatively healthy on defense. Frank Clark played his best game of the season against the Falcons, and this is when he heated up last year.
All that said, the other side gets paid too, and this Browns line is terrific.
So if you’re asking what I’m expecting, I’m expecting the Chiefs to win with a lot of points being scored — 38-28, something like that.
We’ve talked a lot about the Browns so far, and for good reason, but this is probably where we should be putting more of our attention. Because the Browns can play their best and it won’t matter if the Chiefs are at or near their best.
The result of this game will be much more about the Chiefs than the Browns.
Here are facts: Patrick Mahomes just played the “worst” four-game stretch of his career. The last time he played, he appeared confused or surprised by blitzes and pressures, something we’ve rarely if ever seen before. His accuracy dipped, and at other times he and his receivers didn’t see routes the same way.
Here are other facts: the Chiefs have lost one competitive game in the last 13 months. The worst four-game stretch of Mahomes’ career featured four wins, eight touchdown passes and 311 yards per game. His last throw was a perfectly executed game-winner late in the fourth quarter.
So you can ask yourself a simple question. Do you trust Mahomes? Has he earned the benefit of the doubt?
My view is that a disproportionate amount of his — Chris Farley air quotes here — struggles should be viewed through the offensive line.
The NFL provides a 100 percent injury rate, and the offensive line is the most physical position on the field. So injures can’t be an excuse, but it is true that this isn’t the group the Chiefs expected to have and that communication has been made more difficult.
We have talked a lot about how the 21 days between competitive games might effect the Chiefs, and usually that’s been done in terms of bodies healing.
But I also have been thinking about how this is 21 days for that group to meet, watch film, dissect all sorts of blitzes and quadruple-check the protection calls to make sure everyone is seeing and hearing the same things.
If I’m right about all of this — the line’s communication leading to a lot of Mahomes’ “struggles,” and the time off serving well to fix the problems — then I’m not sure how relevant those last four games are.
There’s a chance we see a significantly improved line.
I’m not saying this is how it will go. But I do think all of this is logical.
This is obviously posting after the college game, and we’ll have time before spring training starts so let’s focus on the first two questions.
I do think the Chiefs will win, and I think they’ll do it in a fairly convincing way but also one that allows for some doubt about the AFC Championship game.
I’m probably in the minority here, but I believe that the Bills and Ravens are each capable of beating the Chiefs but that the Ravens are the bigger threat.
I say that with a little hesitation because the Ravens should have been able to score more than 20 points against the Titans, and because Lamar Jackson’s interception was so horrendous that we can’t yet dismiss the idea of him faltering in the playoffs.
But I say it because I believe Jackson is back or close to his MVP form. He completed 71 percent of his passes against the Titans, accounting for 305 total yards and an absolutely stunning 48-yard touchdown run.
The defense has steadily improved, and has a nice mix of pass rushing chops and ability in the back end.
The Bills have been the trendy pick now for a month or so, and we can all see why. Josh Allen has become one of the league’s most dynamic players, and they appear to have figured some stuff out on defense. They win on special teams, and have guys all over both sides of the ball who can change a game with a big play. They are absolutely capable of beating the Chiefs or the Ravens or anyone else.
I just have a feeling about the Ravens. I believe in that coaching staff and the roster, and can see how they’ve become galvanized after last year’s playoffs.
Plus, the Petty Patrick factor would work well for the Chiefs against a quarterback taking some of Mahomes’ love.
I will not pretend to be an expert on the Browns, or to have watched all of their snaps this season. But I will say I’ve watched them more than most other teams, for whatever reason, and don’t think they operate like that.
What I’m saying is I don’t think you go into a game focused on Hunt or Chubb. I think you go into a game focused on Hunt AND Chubb.
Chubb is the better runner*, with a rare toughness even for that position.
* He’s the first back since Adrian Peterson in his 2,000-yard season with 190 or more carries and a 5.6 or better average. You might be interested to know the only four backs to have multiple seasons of 190 or more carries and 5.6 or more yards per attempt: Peterson, Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, and Jamaal Charles.
But we’ve also seen Hunt run through people, and he’s the bigger threat in the passing game.
Hunt and Chubb are different backs with slightly different skillsets, but this isn’t like Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn. I’m not sure how much of a strategy designed to stop one won’t apply to the other.
Which is actually kind of the problem.
The Chiefs would have a challenge facing a team with either Hunt or Chubb.
Getting the Browns with both, along with the offensive line, capable pass catchers and a wildly talented quarterback having the best season of his career ... this is not a team that Chiefs fans should be taking lightly.
Look. I will not lie to you. I do not get the reference. But I do get the sense that this is a good joke for those who do, so it’s being included here.
It probably will not surprise you to hear that I didn’t watch the Nickelodeon broadcast. My household is a bit different, because our 6-year-old is hooked and would probably prefer a live All-22 broadcast over Nickelodeon, and our 4-year-old would not be interested in any football broadcast that didn’t directly provide him chocolate after every score.
But that doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate the effort, or the willingness to do something different.
Leagues and teams are losing young fans. Some of that is natural — the NFL didn’t have to compete with PS5s when I was kid, for instance.
But some of that is self-inflicted — less outreach, more effort put toward corporate sponsorships than families, higher ticket prices, etc.
I’ve wondered at times if leagues should create more shows targeted directly at kids. Animated shows, even, with athletes as the heroes. Part of how I fell in love with football was all the NFL Films stuff, including the bloopers. Part of how I fell in love with baseball was This Week In Baseball — HOW about that?
Those shows felt like they were mine, even as a kid, made digestible but also a little ambitious. Maybe this is my own ignorance coming out right now, but I’m not sure what’s filling that space now other than hoping kids run into highlights on YouTube.
The idea of a live broadcast on a kids network, hosted by personalities kids are familiar with, and done in a way specifically targeted toward kids ... I mean, it makes a lot of sense, right?
Maybe closes that gap that exists between what an 8-year-old can understand and what’s on a broadcast typically aimed for more experienced fans?
I still think leagues should think about more standalone content targeted for kids, and I still think teams should hold back 10 to 20 percent of capacity at reduced prices for families, and I still think leagues are in danger of being short-sighted by prioritizing corporate sponsorships over developing the next generation of fans.
I believe all of that.
But I also believe the NFL did a really cool thing with the Nickelodeon broadcast, and one that could prove to be a smart business decision.
You might know I’m a bit of an extremist on fourth down decisions. This is my nature. I believe strongly in data over hunch, in boldness over passiveness.
I believe that the culture of football coaching has long been about conservative decisions, with the idea that more games are lost than won.
I also believe that the NFL as currently constructed is so different than what’s been baked into the culture for decades that it’s no longer applicable. Back when the idea of more games being lost than won took hold, the world had never seen or been able to fathom something like Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen.
Also, the world did not have access to the data that shows teams are harming their own chances of winning by punting when they should go for it.
It’s incredible to me that football coaches obsess over so many tiny details, searching for any possible edge they can find, but routinely mismanage such a basic decision they know will often surface.
The Titans’ punt you’re referencing cost them 7 points of win probability. SEVEN!
The frustration only grows with the understanding that Vrabel and Mike Tomlin — he has to be included here, because he also made a doozy of a punt decision on Sunday — are two of the best coaches in the league.
These are very smart men, forward thinkers, with track records of using creativity to find edges for their teams.
WHY CAN’T THEY TRUST MATH?
I know you’re using hyperbole to make a point, but no, I don’t think Vrabel (or Tomlin) should be fired. Again: they’re among the best to do it.
But I do think someone they trust — whether that’s an assistant, the GM, the owner, a friend, whoever — owes it to them to make the case about being more logical with these decisions.
Because at some point, it’s not about being conservative or aggressive. It’s about being right, and giving your team the best chance.
This is just the order these are coming to mind.
Why is Steve Balboni first? What is wrong with me? Why am I doing this? I don’t know, but the man played multiple years in his prime with the unapologetic George Costanze horseshoe baldness. He looked like a 51-year-old, twice-divorced insurance adjuster and he was batting cleanup for the Yankees! Just an incredible run.
Patrick Mahomes probably has the most famous hair in Kansas City history. That’s probably not controversial. Fun fact: Mahomes had his real barber cut his hair before shooting that State Farm commercial in a barber shop.
Jarrod Dyson really made the most of his two postseasons in the sun with the Z on the sides.
Graham Zusi is a legend.
Jared Allen made millions of dollars while wearing a mullet. Which is also legendary.
Eric Hosmer had a sort of fauxhawk that became a thing.
Anthony Sherman would have a smooth post-football transition into character acting if anybody needs a surly bouncer at a borderline seedy Boston club.
Drew Butera had precious locks.
Tommy Townsend looks borderline biblical.
I’m also just going to leave this here. We should probably end this now.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for these steaks the other night. You guys, I’m not kidding: perfect. I’d be embarrassed if you knew how rarely I do steaks on the grill, so I wasn’t quite sure how they’d be but I navigated the direct and indirect heat like a boss. Sirloin out here tasting like wagyu. It was so good I immediately started dancing on the Titans’ logo.