The Chiefs win close. Mahomes says he isn’t sure if that’s good or bad. Let’s find out
They sometimes refer to Patrick Mahomes as a force multiplier. It’s part jargon, part descriptive, part obvious truth. When the men who work in the Chiefs’ front office and on their coaching staff use this term for Mahomes, they mean his value is in more than just his play.
He makes Andy Reid better, because new plays are possible and old ones more effective.
He makes the defense better, because they’re often playing with a lead in passing situations.
He makes Clark Hunt better, because the owner’s decisions are easier with the sport’s biggest star.
And he makes the playoff version of the Chiefs better because they are one of the select few teams that have been operating with 95 percent certainty that they would be in the playoffs.
The regular season, then, becomes something not entirely unlike a competitive preseason. The only thing that’s mattered for months is what the Chiefs will look like starting next weekend.
Which means they don’t have to look then like they’ve looked so far.
“Your base set of plays are relatively the same,” Reid said. “But you always have a few extra little wrinkles in there that you can dash out.”
Those wrinkles could be everything. Most teams — and for a long time the Chiefs were one of them — need all they have to make the playoffs. Once there, the outcomes feel entirely dependent on chance. A poorly timed fumble or holding call, a wild forward progress penalty,
This is particularly relevant for this specific team. The Chiefs are not like the others. Not like the other teams in the league now, and not like most other defending Super Bowl champions.
Beginning with the 2000 season, the Chiefs are just the fifth champion to increase its win total. Seven previous defending champions missed the playoffs entirely. You probably know the Chiefs are trying to become the first repeat champion since the 2003-04 Patriots, but did you know they have more wins than any defending champion this century other than the 2011 Packers?
The Chiefs had this success and have been occasionally criticized for it, usually on the grounds that they should have beaten teams by more. Chiefs fans don’t like to hear this, but the criticism is not without merit. Five teams had a superior point differential. Even if you throw out the Week 17 result the number would still be four, with the Chiefs just two points clear of the Bills.
But what if there is something going on here that is undetectable by stats like that?
What if the Chiefs — for whatever reason — play in a specific way that does not track with historical patterns?
What if — and here we’re getting to the core question about this team — they have a gear nobody else can match, but only use it when necessary?
“If you’ve watched us throughout the season, it feels like we always raise up and play better in the big games,” Mahomes said. “Which I don’t know if that’s a good or a bad thing.”
The postseason will serve as the test, but the Chiefs have left breadcrumbs pointing us toward believing that historical trends with point differential and team quality do not apply.
The 2013 Chiefs can serve as a point of comparison here. You might remember that was Reid’s first team in Kansas City. They started 9-0 against a remarkable run of backup quarterbacks, then took a bye and then lost six of their final eight, including the blown 38-10 playoff lead in Indianapolis.
That Chiefs team was vastly improved from the 2012 travesty, but also a cross country road trip from a legitimate championship contender. They were 10-0 against non-playoff teams; 1-6 against playoff teams. They were slow and not strong enough at the line of scrimmage. The defense had talent, but gave up an average of 36 points to playoff teams.
Their cumulative point differential: +125.
The 2020 Chiefs have flaws, yes, and if those flaws conspire to ruin their postseason nobody should be shocked. But they also won 14 of 15 competitive games against teams that have literally been scheming against them for years now. The Chiefs beat all five playoff teams they faced, including four of the top seven (all on the road) in Football Outsiders’ catch-all DVOA metric.
They blew out the Texans and Ravens. They controlled all 60 minutes in Buffalo. They led big against the Bucs, Dolphins and Saints. With the exception of the third quarter against the Raiders in Week 5, the Chiefs made every play they needed. They did all this with a championship pedigree that includes three double-digit comebacks in the most recent postseason.
Does that sound like luck? Or a skill?
Yet their cumulative point differential: +111. Throw out the Week 17 game and it’s +128 — a virtual doppelganger for the 2013 Chiefs.
There cannot be a functioning adult who believes the 2013 and 2020 Chiefs are similar.
So, which of the following scenarios is more likely:
1. The defending Super Bowl champions with core largely intact won 14 of 15 competitive games largely through luck that will now expire in the postseason and expose them as frauds.
2. The league’s best player at quarterback, a Hall of Fame coach, and a talented group with championship experience never viewed the regular season as their proving ground but still managed to win more often than anyone else largely by winning the important moments with a specific skill set that allows for seemingly unlimited options.
Mahomes is often plainly honest and self-critical when talking publicly about football. That’s not universal, by the way. So it’s worth paying attention to. He has said often this season that he believes he and his teammates perform a little better in the bigger games and moments, and he’s only half joking when he says he doesn’t know if that’s a good or a bad thing.
We’re about to find out the answer. But if nothing else, the Chiefs’ track record would indicate this is a good skill to have.