Mellinger Minutes: Chiefs hit the fun part, and a theme of expectations and perspective
Here is some relevant news for Chiefs fans: the Steelers, even after losing to Washington Alex Smiths, would hold the No. 1 seed if the season ended today.
That’s because the first tiebreaker is conference record, and the Chiefs’ loss came to a conference opponent. If that evens out, the next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. The Chiefs do not have a Steelers common opponent left. The Steelers play the Bills on Sunday, so a loss there would give the Chiefs the advantage even with a second loss unless that loss came against the Chargers.
The next tiebreaker would be strength of victory — the combined records of all the teams the Chiefs and Steelers defeated.
I have to be honest with you — I’m not going to calculate that right now, but this is where playing the NFC East might actually be a bad thing for the Steelers.
This is also where the game against the Saints in two weeks might matter, which brings us to the thing I really wanted to talk about anyway.
Because now we get to the fun part of the Chiefs schedule.
The Chiefs have, if we’re honest, had it relatively easy so far. These things change constantly but at the moment the only playoff teams the Chiefs have played so far are the Bills and Bucs.
The Chiefs won both, and looked like the better team doing it, but now we get to see them against the Dolphins (No. 2 in scoring defense) and the Saints (No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA).
A truth that Chiefs fans have not wanted to accept is that homefield advantage has not mattered all that much for their team in years, and that’s particularly true in 2020, but playing both games on the road makes for a nice bonus.
We know this team pretty well. Their quarterback is playing the position better than anyone ever has, surrounded by one of the league’s great support systems. The defense is choppy in places but overall effective: sixth in scoring defense, with 24 or fewer points surrendered in all but three games.
We’ve known all that for weeks, and probably going back to last year. But my contention is that we will know more from the five-game stretch that began with the revenge game in Las Vegas and will end with the Saints than any other portion of the Chiefs’ schedule.
My contention is that the Saints will present the Chiefs’ greatest challenge of the season, both in terms of overall team strength and particular advantages in the run game, Alvin Kamara out of the backfield, and a defense that will feel up to the challenge.
That’s a late season potential Super Bowl preview, which is a delicious possibility.
The Chiefs clinched a sixth consecutive postseason, but their seasons long ago stopped being about the first 16 games. This was true for Smith’s last year or two, and it’s obviously true now.
The regular season matters a lot less than the Chiefs’ ability to create the best version of themselves for the playoffs.
But let’s set all of that aside for a moment and look at the potential playoff path:
Colts at home in the wild card round, Bills in the division round and Steelers in the AFC Championship.
That feels ... manageable.
I actually think the Chiefs’ toughest non-Steelers playoff matchup would be the Titans, but that’s probably a discussion for another day.
This week’s eating recommendation is the drunken noodles at Lulu’s and the reading recommendation is Greg Bishop on the football life of Andrew Whitworth.
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Potential spoiler alert here, but perspective and unrealistic expectations are going to be a theme this week.
Some of you will like it, more won’t, but my job here is not to be your friend. My job is to be your guide on Kansas City’s favorite piece of weekly gimmick sports journalism. And some of you need some truths.
The Chiefs are 11-1.
Eleven and one.
They beat the team that beat them, and are 5-1 against teams .500 or better.
The Chiefs are second in the league in scoring, and sixth in points surrendered. The defense had a shaky few games against the Panthers and Raiders, but has given up an average of 20 points while creating four turnovers the last two games, one of which came against a Hall of Fame quarterback and loaded group of receivers.
We can talk about the offense struggling against the Broncos, I guess, but they also gifted seven points with a non-challenge, and with even subpar execution in the red zone would’ve gotten above 30 points. Patrick Mahomes is averaging a higher EPA right now than in his MVP season.
They are Super Bowl champions and have lost one game in the last 393 days. The last time they lost with a healthy Patrick Mahomes was against the Texans last year, and that was so long ago people weren’t making Bill O’Brien jokes.
Look, I get it. The Chiefs have been Super Bowl irrelevant for so long that every play now can feel like a referendum on a potential dynasty.
And this is an imperfect team. We’ve talked about that before, and we’ll do it again here below. Their flaws could keep them from winning another Super Bowl. Feb. 2, 2020 may very well be as good as it gets.
But to whatever extent the Chiefs have problems, they are problems that 31 other teams — including the Steelers — would trade straight up.
We can recognize and discuss flaws while keeping that perspective. Or, at least, that’s what we’re going to attempt here.
Wish me luck!
The first, and it’s not particularly close.
There’s this bit that a lot of Chiefs fans seem committed to, where anytime their team isn’t winning a blowout it’s the defense’s fault, no matter what.
This is a long time for the late-model Bob Sutton to be haunting dreams.
Last year, the Chiefs defense finished seventh in fewest points allowed, and was better than that when it mattered — 11 points per game over the last seven in the regular season, and just 20 in the Super Bowl against a team that finished second in the league in scoring.
This year, the Chiefs defense is sixth in fewest points allowed, and other than the Raiders and Panthers games has given up 24 or fewer every time out. They are sixth in turnover percentage, and ninth in scoring percentage.
But every week, it seems that a portion of Chiefs fans are intent on crushing the defense and ignoring any stalls by an offense that’s been given every advantage.
This is not a call for the Chiefs offense to be slammed. Just a way of saying the standards should be higher for the offense, but it seems like the opposite is true for a chunk of the fan base.
Which is really weird.
See this, this is what I’m talking about. Steve speaks for many, and should be speaking for even more.
The mistakes on defense stick out. That’s not a Chiefs thing. That’s a football thing. You notice when the pass rush doesn’t get home, or when a receiver is left open. The successes tend to blend into the background.
To be sure: The Chiefs’ defense can get better.
We talk a lot about the run defense, but they haven’t defended the pass as well, either, and it’s notable that they have not faced a lot of great passing offenses. They’ve also been terrible in the red zone.
Some of these issues could show up in the postseason, though the defense’s toughest matchup in the AFC would be against the Titans. If the Chiefs are good enough and lucky enough to make the Super Bowl, the hype on how they defend Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees or whoever will be loud and it will be real.
Andy Reid’s teams have typically had defenses that ranked better in points than yards, and that’s been consistent enough to believe that’s part of the plan.
They don’t need shutouts to be successful. Their bar is lower than it is for the Steelers.
A typical game will include the Chiefs wrecking a few drives, creating a turnover or two, and leaving enough receivers open and allowing enough holes in the run game to give up somewhere between 17 and 24 points.
You may or may not focus on the mistakes, but that’s the general description, as long as the other team stays below 30 points the team’s success or failure in the playoffs will be on the offense.
Which would be a pretty good place for the Chiefs to be.
For the sake of answering this impossible-to-answer question, let’s replace Mahomes with an average-to-solid quarterback. Someone like Teddy Bridgewater, or Alex Smith before his leg shattered, or maybe the 38-year-old version of Ben Roethlisberger.
* Ducks.
The Chiefs would still have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. They would still have Andy Reid and Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones. They would still be a good team, same as they averaged 11 wins in the three seasons before Mahomes started.
The defense has been consistent enough that the 2010 version of Matt Cassel could’ve won a lot of games this season. If the Chiefs just scored 21 points in every game — that would be 27th in the league, by the way — they would be 7-4.
Now, you can counter with the idea that teams would attack a non-Mahomes quarterback differently, and you’d be right, but I’d then counter than I’m just a man and we both know this is a ridiculous premise so I’m doing the best I can.
I believe this Chiefs team with a normal quarterback would’ve almost certainly lost the game in Las Vegas, and probably lost the Chargers and Bucs games, and maybe lost the Panthers game.
Throw in the Week 5 loss to the Raiders and we’re looking at, what, 9-3? Maybe 8-4?
That sounds about right, actually. If the Chiefs finish 14-2 — just throwing that out there — they will have averaged about a win and a half more in Mahomes’ first three seasons as QB1 than in Alex Smith’s last three.
Which tracks with what a lot of us have seen. They are a better regular season team, and demonstrably better playoff team with Mahomes. He didn’t make the Chiefs a contender, but he took them from contender to a champion and potential dynasty.
He’s good at everything, is what’s happening.
It really is absurd. He can make throws like this ...
... and this ...
... while leading the league in interception rate.
And, guys, he’s not just leading the league in interception rate. Mahomes has thrown two interceptions all season. He could throw interceptions on each of his next two throws and STILL BE LEADING THE LEAGUE IN INTERCEPTION RATE.
He’s good in every possible situation, but I’m glad you’re bringing up the 4-minute stuff because it’s a chance to post this play from the Bucs game that we didn’t talk about enough.
This was a 2nd and 6 on the last possession, with 3:13 left and a three-point lead at the snap. You’ll have to trust me that nobody was open here. Kelce popped clear for a moment, but it was just as Mahomes felt the pressure and spun out to his left.
Then he cuts inside the edge rush, sees open space and goes for the sticks. Then he slides, inbounds, to keep the clock running. If Mahomes throws incomplete here, the Chiefs have 3rd and 6 on their side of the field. Depending on the play call there, a punt would’ve given Tom Brady the ball with around 3 minutes left, field goal for overtime or a touchdown for the win.
Instead, the Chiefs’ next snap came at 2:25, and they eventually kill the clock.
Anyway, here’s the play:
Again, we should’ve talked more about this last week but it got lost under an avalanche of Tyreek Hill craziness and the 3rd down conversion later on that last drive.
One of the amazing things about this quarterback is that he has so consistently done everything that could be realistically asked of a quarterback, no matter the situation, no matter what a defense does before or after a snap.
He just doesn’t miss. He doesn’t have bad games.
Look, I’ll say something unpopular here: I’m not sure Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t be the MVP. I think he has a damn good argument, centered basically on his numbers being more or less a mirror image of Mahomes’ with an inferior group of pass catchers.
But Rodgers — one of the best of all-time, and a walk-straight-to-Canton legend if he never takes another snap — was hot garbage in a 38-10 loss to the Bucs. He completed just 16 of 35 passes with two interceptions and no touchdowns (unless you count the pick-6).
Mahomes just doesn’t have games like that. Some of the credit goes to his teammates and coaches, but he’s the one making the plays, and doing it with unprecedented consistency at a position that must react to more moving parts than anywhere else in sports.
If we weren’t watching this every week, I would tell you what he’s doing is impossible. Heck, before the 2018 season, I believed this was impossible.
Well, I’m a go-for-it guy anyway. I thought the Chiefs should’ve gone for it against the Broncos, and I’ll tell you why.
You feel good about Butker from 43 (and even 48 after the horrendous delay of game call) but it’s still not automatic and the numbers will tell you that going up by 6 in that situation is not an enormous difference from being up 3.
Either way, you’re choosing a best-case scenario that gives the opponent a chance to beat you. And a missed field goal would’ve given the opponent the ball at the 33 (and then the 38 after the HORRENDOUS delay of game call).
Or, you can just use the greatest combination of quarterback and Nos. 1 and 2 receiving threats in football history* to get three lousy yards and send everyone home. I choose that option every time.
* Is this an exaggeration? If so, it’s not by much.
This might sound weird, but for me, the hardest I’d think about kicking in that spot (or the one they faced the week before in Tampa) would be against the Steelers.
My thinking there is that the Steelers’ defense is a verifiable monster, so even with my rocket ship offense the chances of a conversion are lower than they would be against a normal team.
Also, I’m aware of Ben Roethlisberger’s career and respect his ability but would feel good about keeping the league’s No. 21 offense from reaching the end zone.
But I’m probably not answering the spirit of your question here. If I put my Andy Reid hat on, I think the only quarterbacks he’s actively trying to avoid in the last 2 minutes play in the NFC:
Brady, Rodgers, Wilson and maybe Brees.
To me, that’s the list.
Which would create a GREAT situation in a potential Super Bowl.
Preach, brother Taco.
I’m probably a bit of an extremist on these fourth down decisions, but I don’t think teams should always go for them. I’m a believer in data, but I don’t think teams should be straightjacketed by the numbers, and can understand why it could be smart to punt or kick in a specific situation where the numbers say go for it.
For instance, there are times when the numbers could say going for it will produce more points than kicking it, but if all you need is three and you feel good about your kicker or you don’t feel great about the play you’d call then kicking it makes sense.
I would also argue that the Chiefs’ calculus here should be different now with a competent defense than it should’ve been in 2018, when fourth and anything less than 70 should’ve been a go.
But I do believe the Chiefs should be more aggressive on fourth downs than most teams, because their capability of converting is higher than most teams.
You play to your strengths, same as anything in life, and if you are lucky enough to have an offense with Mahomes, Hill and Kelce together you should give that offense every opportunity possible because you know the other side is hoping you’ll punt.
The NFL is so different now than even a decade ago, and who knows what it’ll look like in another decade. But I believe it’s reasonable to expect that in 20 years we’ll all be astounded that an NFL team had a quarterback this good with a receiver that fast and one of the greatest tight ends of all time.
That’s a gift, and one that should be maximized.
How much time you got, buddy?
We got into this a little in the Insta-reaction, but these short yardage struggles are not new or unexpected.
Unless you are Patrick Mahomes or Mike Trout you cannot be good at everything, and the Chiefs’ offense built for open spaces, not power.
Even in the best circumstances their offensive line will struggle with power runs up the middle, and these are not the best circumstances — their best overall offensive lineman (Mitchell Schwartz) and best power blocker (Kelechi Osemele) are injured.
Reid has always used gadget plays to make up for some of these short yardage deficiencies, and this year has leaned on them more than ever. At this point, it’ll be noteworthy when the Chiefs play an entire game without snapping the ball with their quarterback in motion.
In keeping with our theme this week, let’s also maintain some perspective. Before these last two weeks the Chiefs had scored touchdowns on 68 percent of their red zone possessions, which ranked in the top 10.
Two consecutive red zone disasters have sunk them to 57.4 percent, and 24th overall, which gives you a choice.
You can either believe that Reid and his coaches have forgotten how to score touchdowns in the red zone, or you can believe that the Chiefs red zone offense is closer to what we saw for the first 10 games when nobody noticed it much either way or these last two.
Sometimes I feel like the last person not intent on making things the best or the worst of all time, but I believe it’s possible to see the red zone and short yardage stuff as a legitimate concern that will be addressed soon and effectively.
Well, we’re going to disagree on the premise here. Effort is not the problem with Jones, and I realize that — especially with an interior defensive lineman — we can cherry pick clips to make any point we want but I watch every snap of every game at least three times and I see a lot more of this ...
... and this ...
... than I do him giving up.
Are there times he’s taken out of the play quickly? Sure. Of course. But he’s also an enormous man who the Chiefs rely heavily on, and they don’t need false hustle when he’s got no chance, draining energy that can be used when he does.
Jones’ biggest problem right now, from what I can see, is that offenses are emboldened to block him with two and often chip with a third.
He’s the only one consistently winning one-on-one matchups right now, which is why he’s not given very many one-on-one matchups.
We talked a lot last week about Frank Clark’s part in this, and he managed just one pressure and one pass deflected against the Broncos. I haven’t charted the snaps, but it looked like he was given many one-on-one matchups.
I did think defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s blitzes were more effective than they had been in recent weeks. At least some of this can be attributed to the difference between Tom Brady’s savvy and Drew Lock’s, but Spagnuolo helped Daniel Sorensen, Willie Gay and Charvarius Ward (among others) get free runs at the quarterback.
After the Aaron Donald freakshow, Chris Jones is in that second tier of star interior linemen. He destroys one-on-one matchups, and wins against two more often than virtually anyone.
But an effective pass rush cannot be created by one man alone. Jones needs help.
This is another unpopular take, but I wouldn’t prioritize the interior of the offensive line.
Disclaimers apply here, because if a potential star slips to where the Chiefs will be drafting, then sure, absolutely, do it. But generally speaking the Chiefs are built for their overwhelming talent on the edges to make up for planned mediocrity on the interior of the line.
You can’t spend money and draft capital on everything, and the Chiefs have done well using their money and highest draft picks in other places.
If we’re talking about the draft, one thing the Chiefs have done really well — and this goes back to John Dorsey — is draft a year ahead of the need. That’s a luxury afforded to front offices with job security and good rosters, and the Chiefs have both.
That’s part of why I’d expect them to target pass rushers first, then defensive backs and receivers.
The caveat here is that the pass rushers typically go higher than the Chiefs will draft, but in recent drafts Montez Sweat, Maxx Crosby, Harold Landry and (ahem) T.J. Watt have been selected after or near where the Chiefs can expect to be in next year’s draft.
The Chiefs would be silly not to look at interior offensive linemen, and they are not silly, but unless it’s a sort of Godfather selection it would be off brand of them to skip a pass rusher for an interior lineman.
Their problems in short yardage can be managed, is the thing. We see that because they currently deploy the league’s most dangerous offense. But if they don’t maintain their relative strength in defending the pass, then we’re going back to 2018 and nobody wants that.
Sunday at Miami: Chiefs lose 27-24 and people lose their everlasting minds.
Dec. 20 at New Orleans: Chiefs win 38-34 and people are like, “Well, that’s not a disaster but is Bob Sutton running this defense again, amirite?”
Dec. 27 vs. Falcons: Chiefs win 38-20 because by then the Falcons have realized that Raheem Morris is a good coach but the roster needs fixin’.
Jan. 3 vs. Chargers: Chiefs win 31-17 and the analysis is split between Chiefs Are Worst 14-2 Team In History and MAHOMESMAHOMESMAHOMESMAHOMES.
This is something I might write more on later in the week, so I’ll keep this answer relatively short but it seems like the discussion on this is beginning in the wrong spot.
Sporting Kansas City is not responsible for the success or failure of a women’s team here, anymore than the Royals are responsible for the success or failure of the T-Bones, or the Chiefs are responsible for the success or failure of the Storm.
This is 2020, so I should probably say it’d be great for Kansas City if the women’s team is successful. That’d be great. Nobody is against this.
But Sporting has issues of its own right now. As a business, in terms of yearly operating revenue, the profits are either small or nonexistent. In 2020, like all sports teams and most businesses, the club has lost a fortune. In 2021, the club will likely lose another fortune.
Buying a sports team right now is a bold move, and my assumption is that Chris and Angie Long have a well thought out plan and long-term strategy to make it work. They are friendly with Cliff Illig and others within Sporting’s management, but if the new club’s success depends on financial support from a business that’s burning cash right now then the new club does not have a sound plan.
It would be great if Sporting did more. Spent. Offered their stadium at a sweetheart rate. Whatever. There’s a chance for some synergy there, if you’ll pardon the jargon, and perhaps that’ll come.
But the new team should expect to rise or fall on its own volition, which means better ownership, more attractive marketing, and a branding strategy that goes beyond youth teams.
The new team should expect to rise of fall based on what it can motivate Kansas Citians to do. If some of that comes from Sporting, eventually, then great. But that can’t be the plan.
Again, more on this later this week, I think.
I want to be in a socially undistanced crowd and feel the spontaneous joy of a big moment. That’s the whole thing, basically.
But you want a list? Here’s a list:
- I want to take my family to a Royals game, eat tatchos out of a plastic helmet, and offer the people behind us some of the kids’ popcorn.
- I want to be at an NCAA Tournament game, with Gus Johnson on the call, so you know a buzzer beater is coming and when it does I want to feel the energy and watch the kids in the band go nuts and maybe even come out of it with an amazing picture like the one Blair has here.
- I want to be on a Southwest flight to a Chiefs game, the cabin stock full of red, with random tomahawk chops breaking out. I should say here that these are things I never thought I’d miss, because I’m enough of a curmudgeon that I like to just watch movies or read a book on a flight, but man. Come back, unbridled enthusiasm.
- I also want to walk through an Arrowhead parking lot that smells like a barbecue contest, and run into someone I know who offers a burger or a rib and we start telling old stories.
- I want to be out to dinner with my wife on a Saturday night, the kids in bed with a babysitter on the couch, and we’re about to head back but then there’s a close game with like 3 minutes left on TV so we stay for one more drink that turns into three.
Last week, I splurged on some Expedition Stout. It had been long enough that I forgot how good it is. Mercy.
I love a big, heavy, dark beer, so you’re in my wheelhouse here. You probably know about the headliners, not just Expedition but KBS and CBS and Prairie Bomb and Ten Fidy and Bourbon County.
I adore all of them and more, but they’re all expensive, too. I like to keep a few in the fridge, for special occasions, but a working man can’t subsist on that kind of thing.
Some favorites in the next price point down include Omar by Crane, Brooklyn’s Black Chocolate Stout, Obsidian by Deschutes, Mothers Winter Grind, 4 Hands Absence of Light, Free State Ironman, and basically anything Boulevard because they don’t miss with dark beers.
I should admit here I’ve been off my game in trying new beers from Crossroads favorites like Double Shift, Alma Mader, City Barrel and Torn Label. If you have a dark beer from one of these or others that you love, let me know, I’ll check it out.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for a friend who just texted out of the blue wondering if I could use some firewood. The answer to this question is always yes, even when I had a delivery a week or two ago. If it’s a Tuesday night and 62 degrees outside, we’re burning.
This story was originally published December 8, 2020 at 5:00 AM.