Mellinger Minutes: What to remember from Vegas game + what to look for vs. Brady’s Bucs
You certainly didn’t ask for, and you probably don’t need, a nerdy reason to be interested in Sunday’s Chiefs-Bucs game, which is essentially a national standalone broadcast and one of the NFL’s most anticipated games of the year.
But you’re going to get that nerdy reason anyway.
Most of the attention, of course, will be on the quarterbacks. And that’s the way it should be. Tom Brady has defined the position for 20 years. Patrick Mahomes sure looks like he’ll define it for the next 20.
Mahomes is, in some ways, a system update of Brady. He has all the brainpower and a Hall of Fame coach, but his player ratings have been improved by like 30 percent: more athleticism, more agility, stronger arm, etc.
Brady won six Super Bowls on the good fortune of partnering with Bill Belichick and consistently great New England Patriots defenses, as well as mastering an important but specific trait: He never panicked, always had a plan, was never left unprepared and executed in almost all the biggest moments.
Mahomes has one Super Bowl to his credit and is working on more with the good fortune or partnering with Andy Reid and an established winner, as well as mastering, well, pretty much all that there is to master about quarterbacking. We have not seen him panic or lack a plan or preparation. He executes in the biggest moments, and he has collective traits that are so often mutually exclusive:
He’s ruthlessly efficient at taking what a defense offers AND jaw-droppingly effective at also taking what he wants.
He’s perhaps the position’s most consistent highlight-maker AND its most conservative in terms of ball security.
I’m going to keep using this analogy because it fits: Mahomes is a jetpack with a 5-star safety rating.
But I digress. Those are the superficial reasons to watch.
The nerdy: The Bucs are the best team the Chiefs will have played so far, and their specific strengths will test and be tested by the Chiefs in interesting ways.
We’ve talked a lot recently about the Raiders’ playmakers, and that’s deserved. Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow are as good as virtually anyone.
Virtually anyone, but not the Bucs: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown. Come on. Ronald Jones is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, which seems unnecessary.
At this point in his career, Tom Brady is a lot like most NFL quarterbacks: He’s great when not pressured (71.7 completion percentage, 110.2 passer rating) and struggles against pressure (46.6 percent, 61.3), according to Pro Football Focus.
So, that’s one test: if the Chiefs can do what they couldn’t against the Raiders, and pressure a quarterback they know they have to pressure.
But the other one is perhaps even more interesting. The Bucs’ defense ranks third in yards, third in sacks, second in quarterback knockdowns and first in blitz percentage, according to Pro Football Reference. They are, in other words, among the most aggressive defenses in the league.
That’s the best way to beat — or not get trounced by — Mahomes. He’s completing 75.8 percent of his passes with a 128.1 passer rating with no pressure, and 47.6 percent with a 79.1 rating against pressure.
The problem for the Bucs is that their favorite way of pressuring — blitz first, ask later — is no bueno. Mahomes is good enough when not blitzed (66.9 percent passing, 7.9 yards per attempt, 104.9 rating) but something close to a Greek god when blitzed (71.4, 9.0, 138.8).
He is equipped with, as Andy Reid would say, lots of gigabytes to know where the blitz is coming from and the calmness to think through how to beat it.
We saw what happened when a blitz-heavy team went blitz-heavy against Mahomes: 19-of-23 for 250 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3.
Other teams seemed to notice that, too. The stats are comical. Here are the number of blitzes Mahomes has faced since Week 3: three (Patriots), five (Raiders), one (Bills), seven (Broncos), 15 (Jets), nine (Panthers), 11 (Raiders).
A Chiefs-Bucs Super Bowl is possible, so this is a particularly interesting trend, and would be even without the possibility of a Chiefs-Steelers playoff game. The Steelers are a mirror image of the Bucs defensively in terms of blitz percentage and pressures.
It will be interesting to see how drastically the Bucs alter what they typically do to meet Mahomes’ specific strengths, and, if we get the chance, even more interesting to see what the Steelers learn from it in the postseason.
This week’s reading recommendation is Kyle Bonagura on the day MIT won the Harvard-Yale game, and the eating recommendation is the shawarma at Papu’s Cafe.
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Chiefs-Raiders felt very 2018-ish, didn’t it?
There is no immediate reason to have faith in the Chiefs’ defense right now, and we’ll get much deeper into that in a moment.
But the Chiefs have played four competent teams in their last six games, and the defense has been forced in three of them — 490 yards and 40 points against the Raiders in Week 5, 435 yards and 31 points against the Panthers in Week 9, and just two stops (TWO!) against the Raiders in Week 11.
That cannot happen.
Again: We’ll get deeper into that soon.
But for now, it’s worth noting that the Chiefs have the greatest problem-solver in league history.
Patrick Mahomes is a gift, and we say stuff like that a lot, and we’ll keep saying it as long as it’s true. He does so many things well that it’s exclusionary to talk about just one, but on a day like this it feels right to focus on the fun.
One of the wild things about watching Mahomes regularly is the experience becomes a mind bend. He does the extraordinary so often that you can lose touch with reality. If you eat filet mignon every meal it probably starts to taste a bit like hamburger, but can we just take a moment here to point out a few plays?
Like, this is not normal. Rolling right, away from pressure by two talented pass rushers, throwing across his body toward the middle of the field to a receiver with three defenders around him.
Watching that live, I hardly blinked. He does stuff like this all the time. But it’s not normal.
Same with this one: look deep, pull back at the last moment, scramble to the weak side away from pressure, twist and throw against the momentum 20-some yards downfield, perfectly placed away from good coverage.
Or there’s this: fourth down, the Raiders bring an effective blitz that should wipe out the play, but Mahomes erases that by backpedaling five yards against the pressure, knowing he has enough arm to make up the difference and enough brain and accuracy to put the ball exactly where it needs to be for the conversion.
This was the very next play. Gosh, that must be aggravating to play against. But, anyway, this play should’ve been dead twice. First, the Raiders get interior pressure from two different guys, Mahomes breaks out and still doesn’t have an open receiver. The linebacker is there to make the play, but Mahomes sidesteps one more time and places the pass perfectly to Kelce on the sideline.
It should be emphasized here that Kelce is probably the only tight end on the planet who can make this catch and get his feet inbounds. The combination here is unfair. But, still. Mahomes, man.
Now. The context just makes this more absurd, because this was not among the 10 most aesthetically remarkable games of Mahomes’ career. He was ruthlessly effective — 34 of 45 for 348 yards, two touchdowns and an interception where the receiver ran to the wrong spot — but that was largely more about Mahomes’ brain than his physical gifts.
He knew where the ball needed to go before the snap, and he got it there. The Chiefs’ production was more about intellect than athleticism. But, man, the athleticism is fun, too.
He’s different. We’re in Year 3 of saying this now, but it’s worth emphasizing: Chiefs fans have the chance to watch perhaps the greatest quarterback of all-time from the ground up.
This is one-in-a-lifetime stuff for a fan. Don’t forget that.
This is the 11th season I’ve covered the Chiefs, and from the beginning, and even decades before, that the following has been true:
You never knew when the Chiefs would Chief, but you always knew they would Chief.
The meaning of those words has changed — from incompetence to being just good enough to break your heart — but it’s always been true. Mahomes has done something I would’ve thought impossible just three years ago.
Chiefing now means winning a game they would have lost, often with Mahomes and Kelce and Hill doing something athletically impossible for most professional football players.
I wrote something similar in the Insta-reaction, but Mahomes has so twisted reality that many of you were hoping your favorite team would give up the go-ahead touchdown to a bitter rival in the final minutes and THAT WAS SOMEHOW A RATIONAL THOUGHT.
The only negative I can see about Mahomes is that he’s teaching a generation of Chiefs fans to expect the absurd, and that’s going to be fine for the next 10 to 15 years. But man these kids are in for a rough introduction to reality once they’re adults.
Well, let’s be honest here. The Chiefs have two of the best five or so receivers in football with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Technically, Kelce is listed as a tight end, but come on.
That said, most of what you list here is temporary.
Watkins’ hamstring is healed; a new calf injury popped onto the injury report late in the week, and that’s why he didn’t play. It’s unclear the extent of Byron Pringle’s injury, but you wouldn’t assume that’s long-term.
And Mecole Hardman hardly played because he hadn’t practiced in two weeks. He’d been on the COVID-19 list and it’s reasonable to assume he would’ve been inactive if not for Watkins’ calf injury.
The Demarcus Robinson stuff is real and becoming a concerning trend.
At full strength, Watkins is WR2 ... and I’m not sure how many teams can boast a more effective third pass-catching option than him.
I thought Hardman was in line for a boost this season, but that hasn’t come. Robinson should be beyond these errors. His value is stability. He knows the offense, should have an on-field sync with Mahomes. I continue to believe Pringle should get more snaps, but he has to be healthy.
The truth is that all these problems are temporary or manageable or both. This has been true for years: If you are a Chiefs fan and your primary concern is anything about the offense, then you do not have a primary concern.
Of course, it’s also true that the primary concern is not anything about the offense.
And now we talk defense.
First of all, I’m going to need a paragraph here to geek out about Bill James asking me a sports question. The 12-year-old Sam would probably spontaneously combust if he saw this. What a world.
OK, anyway.
Yes. I absolutely agree with this. The most convenient comparison is also useful. There was a time that Alex Smith was considered a broken quarterback. A bust. In his first six seasons he’d completed just 57.1 percent of his passes for 53 interceptions and 51 touchdowns.
The 49ers were dysfunctional in those days, and on many levels. Smith was unprepared for the NFL, and the 49ers made it much more difficult than he deserved.
Then Smith encountered competent coaching, and holy smokes: 65 percent completions, 132 touchdowns and 43 interceptions over the next seven seasons. Passer rating is imperfect, but Smith’s jumped from 72.1 to 94.9.
Smith did not grow a better arm, or smarter brain, or quicker feet. He was just given more support. He was given more help in diagnosing defenses, especially right before the snap. He was given open receivers and, eventually, confidence.
Smith is a remarkable human being, so he’s said that he’s grateful for those struggles in San Francisco because they made him appreciate and maximize the support he got first from Jim Harbaugh and later Andy Reid.
But, let’s be honest: It would’ve been a lot better for his career if his first start was with Reid as the coach, Kelce as his tight end, Hill as his receiver and Kareem Hunt as his running back.
Carr is on a similar trajectory, though Smith would’ve traded his Bay Area struggles for Carr’s in a second.
With Dennis Allen and Jack Del Rio as head coach, Carr developed a well-earned reputation for peaks and valleys. He threw 32 touchdowns in his second season and won 12 games in his third. But he had a knack for panicking, particularly against pressure.
If he didn’t know exactly where the ball needed to go — or if his pre-snap read proved incorrect — the Raiders were in trouble.
Gruden has essentially rebuilt Carr. The analogy is a kitchen remodel where they take everything down to the studs. Give Carr credit for taking the coaching, and even more credit for implementing the plan.
He’s completing 70 percent of his passes over the last three seasons. A year ago, he had the most effective season of his career. Through 10 games, he’s taken another significant jump. There are no perfect stats in football, but he’s fourth in QBR — behind only Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.
He looks the part, too. I don’t think anyone will confuse Carr for a Hall of Famer, but he has a noticeably different confidence now. The way he reacts to negative plays is interesting. This is anecdotal, and I don’t pretend to watch all the Raiders’ snaps, but a bad play used to wreck Carr’s body language. Shoulders drop, facemask points to the ground.
Now, he seems to take those as the exception, understanding what went wrong, confident he’ll be able to fix it.
The Raiders’ roster is vastly improved under Gruden, and that’s part of this as well. Quarterbacks do not operate in vacuums.
But here’s a spot where my view has evolved. At the beginning of this season I thought the Raiders had most everything they needed except the quarterback. Now, I think the quarterback may be good enough for them to go forward as a Super Bowl contender.
This is a good time to go to Pro Football Focus. Here is how they’ve charted Carr’s pressure game-by-game:
Week 1 vs. Panters: 3 of 30 dropbacks (10 percent).
Week 2 vs. Saints: 13 of 42 dropbacks (31 percent).
Week 3 vs. Patriots: 12 of 24 dropbacks (50 percent).
Week 4 vs. Bills: 16 of 34 dropbacks (32 percent).
Week 5 vs. Chiefs: 10 of 32 dropbacks (31 percent).
Week 7 vs. Bucs: 13 of 41 dropbacks (32 percent).
Week 8 vs. Browns: 7 of 30 dropbacks (23 percent).
Week 9 vs. Chargers: 8 of 26 dropbacks (31 percent).
Week 10 vs. Broncos: 5 of 27 dropbacks (19 percent).
Week 11 vs. Chiefs: 11 of 33 dropbacks (33 percent).
So, no. The Chiefs are not the anomaly here. Their pressure rates are right in line with what the Raiders have typically allowed. Using Pro Football Reference’s numbers, only five teams allow less pressure than the Raiders.
But here’s the problem: the Chiefs are all-in on pressure. The front office has used the bulk of its resources in terms of both money and draft capital on pass rushers. The coaching staff emphasizes it with personnel groupings and play-calls.
Only six teams blitz more often, according to PFR, and only five create more consistent pressure.
The defense is constructed in a way that pressure is not a bonus. It is a requirement. The corners are physical and the safeties smart but they just can’t hold up when the quarterback has 3 or 4 seconds to throw. When that pressure isn’t there, the whole thing breaks down.
So, the answer to your question has a little nuance. The Chiefs are not an outlier in struggling to pressure Carr. But they are built in a way that makes them less equipped to defend without pressure.
(EDITOR’S NOTE: We’re having some sporadic formatting problems, especially with Facebook questions. We’ll put those in italics. Here’s Ben Booth.)
This defense was soooo good late last year and all the way to the Super Bowl! I’m not sure what has changed. Mahomes is the man but you have got to think this will catch up with us eventually. Thoughts?
I’m surprised. This is not a great defense, and hasn’t been for years. But they had nearly a full season’s worth of track record that showed them to be a reliable defense, and among the best in the league at preventing points, which is really the only thing that matters.
Even now, we can sit here and complain, but the Chiefs are seventh in points against (21.4 ppg).
So these are high-level criticisms, but we’re talking about the defending Super Bowl champions who have won 18 of their last 19 — so by definition any criticism is high-level.
Doesn’t mean those criticisms are invalid.
The concerning part is the trend line, which we mentioned before. Until two games ago, the Chiefs were the league’s only team to allow 20 or fewer points in all but one game.
That kind of consistency paired with this offense is almost literally unbeatable.
But now, it’s also true that the defense has played just one good game out of its last four against competent NFL competition*.
* We are keeping the Broncos and Jets out of this conversation.
This is not all bad. The Chiefs’ defense is essentially in the same spot it was a year ago. The Chiefs have the luxury of approaching the regular season a bit like an NBA team — winning is important, but it’s expected enough that the most important thing is presenting the best version of themselves for the postseason.
The most illustrative example: Twitter was full of milk-carton jokes for Frank Clark a year ago, and then he dominated in the postseason.
This group’s collective track record is worth the benefit of the doubt.
But the current trend lines are worthy of the current concern.
My assumption is that Thornhill has done something or not done something to lose some trust with the coaches. Because Reid calling him that — a situational guy — was stunning.
“We’re just gonna bring him back slowly,” Reid said. In real-time I heard that as a reference to the ACL injury, but with time to think about it I’m less sure.
Because, yes, Thornhill is still just 11 months removed from a torn ligament in that knee. But if they’re bringing him back slowly because of that, they’re admitting an earlier mistake.
Thornhill played 64 percent of the Chiefs’ snaps in the season opener, and no fewer than 97 percent in each of their next five games.
Unless there’s been an aggravation of the injury that we don’t know about, the demotion is presumably more about performance than physical limitations.
But the broader point is that we’re seeing a defense in transition. Not just Thornhill and Saunders, as you mention, but now L’Jarius Sneed is working his way back, the Chiefs continue to balance snap counts among the linebackers, and the defensive line is still settling on the right mix.
What I’m saying is the problems right now could be reasonably expected to be temporary.
The truth is the Chiefs are good enough to win the Super Bowl either way. But they’re not the favorite without fixing these issues.
Steve Glasscock: What was the Chiefs defense’s sideline kerfuffle about last night?
This is a spot where locker room access would be beneficial to our readers.
A press box seat would’ve given us a better view of who was involved, and what led up to it. And an example of why the ability to ask questions directly is so important.
The Chiefs made zero defensive players or coaches available after the game. The pace of post-game on the road is quicker, and we usually get fewer players anyway. But after that game the team’s PR department chose to go all offense, which is better from their point of view and disappointing for a fan trying to understand what’s going on.
These sideline arguments are not proof of something broken, by the way. Most fans know that, but it’s worth emphasizing here. Creative tension can be productive.
But the same way locker room access helped us understand the dynamics of the broken defenses of 2017 and 2018, the ability to see these guys interact and ask them questions away from press conferences would be helpful right now.
So, short answer: I don’t know.
Slightly longer answer: I’m very much looking forward to the time when I can get those answers for you.
Dude.
This is, too: Melia going brick wall on San Jose was just the second time an MLS team failed to score even one penalty in a shootout. The first was in 2010, in an Open Cup match, when the Chicago Fire lost to the Charleston Battery. Melia was the keeper in that one, too.
Sporting’s playoff win over San Jose was a trip. There were wild highs, like Gianluca Busio’s stoppage-time goal off a gorgeous back-foot pass from Khiry Shelton. There were wild lows, like San Jose’s last two goals, which just should not be allowed by an organized defense.
And then in the end, when Melia gets between the sticks, is there anyone watching who didn’t believe Sporting would win?
The guy is just different in those situations, and especially with what happened in the Chiefs game a few hours later the natural comparison is there between Melia stopping penalties and Mahomes getting the ball at the end with a chance to win.
Sporting is going to need to clean some stuff up. This is the best team they’ve had in a few years, but they have to defend better. They can’t rely on Melia that much consistently.
They know that. I’d be surprised if they’re not better in the conference semifinals. But, yes, what a moment for Melia. That guy is going to be on the wall at some point.
Look, I understand that K-State has been torpedoed with COVID-19 cases the last few weeks, but even if we ignore the fact that mitigating the virus is absolutely part of competition this season we can agree that K-State has to be better than this.
Iowa State is, in theory at least, a peer program. This could be one of the better teams in program history — who can be sure about something like this in 2020? — but K-State shouldn’t be losing to anyone 45-0. That’s wretched and embarrassing.
Games like this make brights spots go dark. The offense and defense each played its worst game of the season.
There was a time that K-State could at least dream about a Big 12 championship, but they’ve now lost three in a row, including two by blowouts. Baylor next week, and Texas after that. Finishing with five straight losses would erase a lot of the momentum and goodwill that Chris Klieman has built since his arrival last season.
That was brutal.
I’m not sure I’d bet on that.
Basketball has fewer players and smaller traveling parties, so in theory the operation should be streamlined. In theory, basketball can learn from football, both from what worked and what didn’t.
But in practice, community case numbers are much worse now than at the beginning of football season and those of us who’ve been college students have real world experience that contradicts the idea that any real lessons will be learned by athletes and coaches who often feel invincible.
Basketball season will be happening in places (including the Midwest) where outdoor socializing is much more difficult. We can believe that college basketball players — particularly those with professional ambitions — will be diligent about avoiding risk, but there are two problems with that.
First, what does avoiding risk really mean right now? Especially in a social and densely populated place like a college campus?
Second, all it takes is one case, and for that one case to become four and the program is shut down for two weeks.
Here it’s worth noting that on Monday we saw Duke and Arizona cancel season openers, Baylor drop out of an event this week with coach Scott Drew testing positive. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes also tested positive.
So, well, not the most awesome start.
I hate big crowds and I hate the wave even worse, but I swear on my life that this is true: I would ecstatically participate in the wave right now if I could experience the discomfort of being in the middle of a big crowd.
I promise. I would do it.
I would pay top dollar to go back and time and give everyone on the 1995 Chiefs a Twitter account.
The last Kansas City Kings team would have been a great time. George Brett, that’s probably too obvious, but that would’ve been a good time after he punched Graig Nettles and went ape about pine tar and missed a World Series game with hemorrhoids.
Mark Quinn. Steve Bono, but ironically. Priest Holmes would have been beautifully weird, I’m pretty sure. Bennie Thompson who, I’ve been told, was one of Lamar Hunt’s favorite players. That always makes me laugh.
Jason Sutherland. Todd Reasing. Michael Beasley. Actually, scratch all that. Norm Stewart and you can have the rest.
Mark Mangino has a fun account, but nothing like it would’ve been if it existed when he was coaching and in a world without lawyers.
Trey Hillman’s twitter would’ve been unintentionally hilarious. Gunther Cunningham, my goodness. Marty during Raiders week. Mercy.
But, honestly, we’re just wasting time here. The answer is almost anyone who played defense for the Chiefs in the 1990s.
I appreciate the question, but not really.
First, I’m not sure my audience isn’t different than the national, broad-strokes TV numbers that show fewer people spending time watching sports.
Some of that is how good and interesting the Chiefs are. Some is it feels like we’ve built a really cool community here. It’s one of my favorite parts of the job, actually. Might be the favorite.
We’re in this together, experiencing the same things together, and I hope that’s part of what brings you back.
But let’s assume there is a smaller audience for sports content right now. I’m still not bothered for at least three reasons:
1. I have enough things to worry about without adding what I can’t control.
2. I’m here for whoever wants to ride along, but the people who watched sports last year and aren’t right now probably aren’t reading much of my stuff anyway.
3. I know this is corny, but with where we are politically and socially right now I believe we need sports as much as we ever have.
This should be obvious, but I’ll say it anyway. I want everyone in the world to read every word I write, and to be so moved by it that they send me a million dollars.
But I’ve never been in this for audience share, or to work the margins. I’m here to connect with sources enough that they’ll help me understand, and to connect with readers enough that they’ll want to stick with me.
I don’t feel encumbered in any way.
This week I’m particularly grateful for the way our kids watch football games. The 4-year-old just talks about how much he likes the Chargers (especially their uniforms ... and let’s be honest, he has a point). The 6-year-old goes helmet-and-mouthguard and runs plays of his own between the ones he sees on TV.
This story was originally published November 24, 2020 at 5:00 AM.