The Kansas City Royals will see uncertainty and potential opportunity this offseason
The challenge, from almost the literal beginning of John Sherman’s time as Royals owner, has been for the organization to come out of the pandemic in better shape than it entered.
This can be measured in many ways, and inherent in the challenge is that Sherman and his investors are going to have to be OK with significant operating losses.
But at least from a baseball perspective we can see the changes take shape this offseason — Sherman’s first full winter in charge, and one that baseball people are cautiously optimistic will lead into a 162-game 2021 season.
One place is subtle. Teams across the country responded to a revenue shortfall by laying off staff. The Royals will lose some with two minor league teams contracting, but the scouting department is positioned to add four experienced evaluators in different roles. Each was let go in purges by other clubs.
Each will have a place with the Royals, who continue to walk their talk of building around culture and trust.
That’s below the surface, and only part of how our current reality is and will continue to affect the Royals.
Because if Sherman and the Royals are all-in on coming out of the pandemic better than they entered, opportunity is everywhere.
Indians closer Brad Hand led the league in saves, finished with 29 strikeouts and just four walks across 22 innings with a 0.773 WHIP ... and had his $10 million option declined.
Braves reliever Darren O’Day had a 1.10 ERA and 0.796 WHIP ... and had a $3.5 million option declined.
Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong answered questions about his option being declined — /begin emphasis/ — during a conference call set up to celebrate his second consecutive Gold Glove.
We could go on and on here. The point is not that the Royals will be interested in all or even any of these players.
The point is that baseball teams are making decisions that would be outrageous in any other offseason. The point is that free agents have largely received cold interest the last two offseasons, with the sport enjoying record revenues. So how do you think free agents will be greeted now?
The opportunities for bargains will be there, even as the Royals join in trying to cut costs. This was to be a lighter payroll year anyway with Ian Kennedy and Alex Gordon off the books. But in this environment they will likely non-tender Maikel Franco, who would otherwise earn about $8 million in arbitration. They will also have discussions around Jorge Soler, who would likely earn about $9 million in arbitration.
Maybe that money would be better spent on three players, or even four, who could help lengthen the Royals’ lineup.
That won’t be the only change. They will consider long-term contracts for Adalberto Mondesi, who enters his first year of arbitration, and Sal Perez, who is due $15.5 million in the last year of his contract.
The Royals want to give Franchy Cordero a chance to play everyday. Bubba Starling’s time may be up, in part because the Royals want to see Kyle Isbell and Khalil Lee in the big leagues. They need a centerfielder. They have guys who can play centerfield, but that’s different than having a centerfielder — the difference between, say, Whit Merrifield chasing fly balls to the track and Lorenzo Cain.
This is where the potential for the biggest change comes, because the Royals will be open to trades, including Whit Merrifield and Brad Keller. The deals would need to be strong, but the Royals have some depth and enough specific needs that the right move would make sense.
This will be remembered as a defining time for the Royals. They’ve long been known as one of the sport’s most patient franchises. Some clubs would’ve given up on Alex Gordon after 2010, or Alcides Escobar after 2013. A lot of owners would’ve fired general manager Dayton Moore after 2012, and a lot of GMs would’ve fired manager Ned Yost in July 2014.
The Royals stayed patient from top to bottom. Some of that was a lack of alternatives, to be sure, but the steady rise from 97 losses in 2009 to a world championship in 2015 — they improved their win total six consecutive years, which had never been done — came largely from patience.
There are signals everywhere — including from Sherman — that the team will operate with subtle differences now. They will be more transactional, and less sentimental. They will follow data a little more, and intuition a little less.
This group will succeed or fail mostly with the high-end talent already on hand — Perez, Mondesi, Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Bobby Witt Jr., and Josh Staumont at the core. Include Keller and Merrifield if the Godfather offers don’t come, and others like Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier, Isbell, and Lee if development does.
It’s up to others to work themselves into the group, and up to the front office to find more who can join.
The former is made more difficult by the continued lack of opportunity for minor-leaguers, and the latter is at least made more interesting by the game’s changing economics.
The Royals’ 2021 season was always going to be about change. It was always going to be about further transitioning to a future of Singer and Bubic, and of potentially pairing Witt Jr. with what the Royals already have in the big leagues.
That’s the group that will make this rise or fall. But the Royals promised themselves to be better when this pandemic is over than when it started, and they’ll have some unexpected options to pursue.
This story was originally published November 6, 2020 at 5:00 AM.