Mellinger Minutes: Are you worried about the Kansas City Chiefs? Should you be?
There’s this moment in a lot of movies, even the good ones, when you think about checking your phone. It’s not that you’re not interested. Of course you’re not interested. You have a million things you could watch. You chose this movie. You’re in. But, you know.
You’re not so in that you’re not thinking of other things. Bill Simmons used to call this the VCR test, that moment when you look at the VCR to see how long is left. If he was still doing this type of thing, he might call it the Instagram or Twitter test:
You’re committed to the movie, but you’re thinking of other things between the open and the close. It’s natural.
Well, right now, if you’ll pardon the weird analogy, we’re sort of in the Instagram test portion of the Chiefs season.
They haven’t played a game with genuine, standalone intrigue since the Bills on Oct. 19. They will not play another game with genuine, standalone intrigue until the Raiders on Nov. 22.
The Chiefs have just two games remaining against teams who currently own winning records: Nov. 29 at Tampa Bay, and Dec. 20 at New Orleans. They are also the only teams left on the schedule in the top half of Football Outsiders’ DAVE.
It’s not that the rest of the regular season won’t provide intrigue, or won’t be useful in further understanding the potential of this group. It’s just that we know the real answers will come in January, and until then some Chiefs fans might be doing a lot of Instagram scrolling.
This is a theme we’ll get into here in the questions and responses below, and also perhaps later in the week.
But I wanted to speak generally here at the top.
The Chiefs are scoring 31.1 points per game. They have some stuff to clean up — mostly with individual execution — but considering how much we can assume Andy Reid is holding back if this is “struggling” then we should all struggle like this in our lives.
Willie Gay has a chance to change the defense in some subtle but important ways. His ability in coverage while not sacrificing against the run is the type of thing that can make everyone around him stronger.
The Chiefs have nine games left, and will likely be significant betting favorites in all except the Bucs and Saints games. One of the challenges will be for the Chiefs to retain weekly focus and effort, not just to win games but to use games against inferior opponents productively.
A lot of us will be focused on final scores and statistics and highlights, but there are always internal functions below the surface that are harder to detect.
We can use last year as an example. The improvements on defense were obvious and talked about regularly. The improvements on offense were more hidden, and particularly hard to detect when Mahomes was injured or visibly limited physically for so long.
The concerns that some of you are expressing about the offense aren’t as severe as what was being talked about after the loss to the Colts last year, and aren’t materially different than some of what was being said after the Patriots win.
But the Chiefs weren’t playing for November or December. They were playing for January and February, and with a few lucky breaks averaged 39 points and won every playoff game by at least 11.
To be clear: that doesn’t mean the same thing will happen again this year.
But it does mean it’s possible the Chiefs are following the same template.
This week’s eating recommendation is the french dip at Harry’s Country Club, and the reading recommendation is Sam Borden on Aaron Rodgers’ weirdness.
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Look. I get it. Those of you who’ve followed this team long enough have scars that even Patrick Mahomes and a parade cannot fully heal. The men who’ve worn that uniform have let you down in the past, and it would be unnatural not to feel some of that now.
But I keep thinking about two things, above all others.
The first is that we’re only seven games into this. If the Chiefs were playing perfectly, week in and week out, the natural fear would be that they’re peaking too early. In Week 8 last year, Mahomes was injured, the Chiefs had just lost three of four, and half of the locker room was ticked that fans were selling their tickets because they only cared about the offense.
The offense didn’t really get going until after Thanksgiving. That season worked out OK.
This is not me saying the Chiefs will win another Super Bowl. Maybe they will, maybe not. This is me saying that they have everything they need on the roster and coaching staff right now, and that there is a legitimate case to be made that this team is better than the one that beat the 49ers last year.
The second thing I keep thinking about is that if your team has Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Eric Bieniemy, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire and your biggest worry is the offense ... then you don’t have any big worries.
The offense is operating below its standards right now. That is absolutely true. We’re seven games in and we only have one Patrick F. Mahomes game so far (Ravens obvi). The offensive line is a lot of moving parts. The Chiefs could use a receiver other than Hill establishing himself as a major threat.
These things are all true, and we’ll get into more of this in a few questions.
But you know what else is true? The Chiefs are top 5 in points, turnovers, scoring percentage, points per possession, and DVOA.
Patrick Mahomes is on pace for 4,340 yards, 37 touchdowns, two interceptions, 380 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. He’s an MVP favorite. If that’s struggling, we need to redefine the word.
This is a reminder that painting with broad strokes means your painting is going to stink. Because there are Chiefs fans like this, and there are also Chiefs fans on the other extreme, who’ve gone arrogant with a winner, and the same can be said for fans of any team that’s won a Super Bowl and been very good again the next season.
But I do think Marty hits on something worth examining here:
The only thing that matters is the playoffs. Nobody Can Tell You How To Be A Fan™ but the space should allow for more worry free watching, right?
The point is not to beat the Jets this week, or the Panthers the next week. The point is to stay healthy and look for specific points of progress. The wild screens and one-of-a-kind throws Mahomes makes in between are just extra.
If you can’t enjoy watching a Super Bowl champion find new ways to win, and start off 6-1 on the way to 8-1 — and, I’m assuming, a blowout of the Raiders off the bye to go 9-1 — then that’s on you.
I mean, I get it. Mahomes introduced himself in 2018 in such a breathtaking way that anything other than six touchdown passes while juggling knives and creating a vaccine seems a bit like a letdown.
But here’s a challenge. Remove your Chiefsdom for a second, and think about this as a Steelers fan, or a Ravens fan, or a Titans fan.
Don’t you think there’s a chance you’d be rolling your eyes that Patrick Mahomes now has more weapons on offense, and that the defense has given up 20 or fewer points in all but one game of the highest scoring season on record?
There’s a lot to unpack here. Yes, it would be a disappointment if the Chiefs don’t make the Super Bowl. Yes, they have a lot of advantages. No, those advantages don’t include no real road games. And no, the Chiefs are not the only good team in the AFC.
The Steelers are undefeated, with the AFC’s best defense. The Ravens are first in DVOA, and have so many markers of a great team: balance between offense and defense, consistent success in takeaways/giveaways, ability to run and pass, as well as defend the run and pass. The Colts are interesting. The Titans have lost the same number of games as the Chiefs, and to a better team.
There’s never an easy path to the Super Bowl (though the Chiefs came close last year). The Chiefs will have to earn it and, yes, absolutely, everyone on that team and staff will and should be disappointed if they don’t play in the Super Bowl.
But they still need to do it.
This is what Reid and the coaches mean when they talk about their biggest challenge being consistent focus. It’s natural to look ahead, or let off the gas. But NFL seasons are about stacking improvement on improvement, and what the Chiefs do or don’t do now will show up in the postseason.
This is exactly that kind of improvement that I’m thinking about. Really, this might be the most important, along with the offensive line and run game.
Gay has always been a tremendous fit for both Steve Spagnuolo and what this specific defense needs.
He’s known for his speed, but he’s also a willing and able tackler between the hashmarks.
He played a season-high 39 snaps, and a season-high 17 in coverage against the Broncos. Pro Football Focus graded it his best game of the season, which matched the eye test. He appears to be a sound tackler and has good instincts about where to be in coverage.
Two plays stand out from the Broncos game. First, watch the discipline from No. 50 to not chase the play action, then the agility to turn around, locate the receiver in his zone, and the athleticism to deflect the pass.
Now, watch him (top right part of the screen) follow the play and accomplish two tasks simultaneously: he’s positioned well enough that Lock knows he can’t run for the first down, but he also maintains coverage to drop and knock the pass away. I’m not sure when the Chiefs last had a linebacker like this.
These are important traits. If Gay continues this trajectory, the Chiefs are going to have a weapon against passes to tight ends and running backs that they’ve lacked for years. Assuming L’Jarius Sneed makes a full recovery, they’ll also have speed in the secondary they’ve missed recently.
You think Sneed may have mattered against Henry Ruggs?
I’m glad this question was asked, because it goes with the theme of what we’ve been talking about.
The Chiefs are going to cruise to 13-3, maybe 14-2. The No. 1 seed is worth stretching for a little bit — remember it’s the only way to get a first-round bye now — but even that isn’t as important as what the Chiefs are in January.
They have the chance to be better than last year. More complete. More dynamic.
Games against the Broncos or Jets or Panthers or Falcons shouldn’t do much to challenge the Chiefs on the scoreboard.
But the regular season scoreboard is not what matters here.
Now, I promised you more on the offense...
Andy Reid’s teams often “slump” this time of year. The extreme example is the 1-6 stretch that began in Week 6 in 2017. That one was so bad Reid gave up play calling to Matt Nagy.
The theory that makes the most sense is that Reid gets so far ahead of opponents in the offseason, which clears September, but then opponents counterpunch this time of year and it takes a bit for Reid to figure out how best to respond.
Generally speaking, opponents are playing deep zones. It’s a smart play. The dare is for the Chiefs to stay disciplined and patient, without the luxury of throwing to Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman over the top.
The counterpunch needs to be a combination of the run game, cleaner execution, and a whole lot of Kelce and the running backs with short and intermediate routes. In theory, those plays should be set up for a lot of yards after the catch.
No football team will ever be fully healthy for long, but it is worth remembering the Chiefs are playing without their best offensive lineman and a receiver that we have evidence showing the team works much better with him on the field.
The Chiefs are adjusting on the fly, and as they’re doing it their worst performance is one of these four:
- the time they turned an eight-point fourth quarter deficit into an overtime win.
- the time they never trailed in beating the Patriots.
- the time they scored 32 points against the Raiders.
- the time they won a division road game 43-16.
That doesn’t suck!
I also think about this: the Chiefs have gone guns blazing exactly once this season, and it was the night they emasculated what is now a 5-1 team on national television.
That doesn’t erase the problems with execution. That’s not something you want to turn on and off. The Chiefs need to be better here, particularly with the receivers after Mahomes breaks the pocket, and with Mahomes himself picking the right moment to break the pocket.
Those things need to be better. We have a few years of evidence that says they will be better. That’s not a guarantee. But it is a thing.
If the execution does sharpen, the Chiefs have a gear they can get to that nobody else in the AFC can match.
That’s a pretty good place to be. If the Chiefs are at their best, nothing else matters. If they’re at less than their best, they still have a chance.
The answer I’ve received from multiple people isn’t fun or exciting but it is consistent:
Berry was cleared by doctors, but did not feel comfortable playing until Week 15. That would explain why they kept saying day-to-day and why he didn’t go on IR.
There were people inside the organization who thought he might even get some snaps in the preseason that year, in preparation for the season opener. But a player’s return from injury requires unanimous agreement from three parties: the team, the player, and the doctors.
The team and the doctors agreed. Berry did not.
Please don’t read this as a knock on Berry. He was coming back from a second major football injury, plus the cancer treatments. It is impossible for me or virtually anyone else to know what that does to a body or mind. Berry knows his body better than the doctors or the team.
It’s an entirely bizarre situation. One of the strangest in modern NFL history. He was at the height of his powers in 2016, a torn Achilles in 2017, and a heel condition in 2018. He hasn’t played since. He was a three-time All-Pro and played a total of one game after his 30th birthday, and essentially has not been heard from since. He’s a ghost.
One of the cruel twists is that there is legitimate reason to believe if Berry was healthy the Chiefs would have beaten the Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship Game, and I certainly believe they would have beaten the Rams in that Super Bowl.
Odom went to two bowl games, and Drinkwitz is 2-2 so I don’t want to get over the skis here.
But how could you not be impressed with Mizzou right now?
The LSU had the feel of something monumental in the moment, but those feelings can be fleeting, and need to be backed up by sustained success. In some ways, the Kentucky win was even more impressive than overcoming some mistakes and winning a shootout with a last-second goal line stand against LSU.
Kentucky had beaten Mizzou five years in a row by, basically, being tougher. And stronger. And more resilient.
A game after winning while giving up 41, Mizzou won by scoring just 20 because it was tougher. And stronger. And more resilient.
A game after overcoming three turnovers, Mizzou cleaned up and committed zero.
They ran the ball 62 times, which still looks like a typo.
The stage is not too big for Drinkwitz, which is notable, because his entire head coaching experience comprised of one season in the Sun Belt.
We’re going to continue to learn more about Drinkwitz every game. Saturday night in Gainesville will be the team’s toughest challenge since Alabama. Then two weeks later the same could be said against Georgia. The SEC is a brutal place to try to climb a ladder.
But for now, how could anyone not be encouraged?
Woof. What a mess.
That program has strung together so many bad decisions over so many years that when it’s combined with the inherent difficulties KU football will always have it’s hard to see the way out.
The most obvious example: they’ve made so many bad hires that most coaches who might be good hires aren’t interested. The last three hires have been a con man who used the shine of Belichick and Brady to make a fortune, a position coach from a historically underperforming program, and an out of work old timer who used to be pretty good. Who would be next?
A less obvious example: each of the last three coaches have gone desperate and tried roster-building shortcuts that left the next guy in progressively worse shape. The desperation has built, and nobody’s been able to break the cycle.
I’m not here to make the case that Les Miles will turn this around. He probably won’t. But they’re stuck financially, and either way need to have the discipline and humility to stop trying to shortcut their way back to relevance.
Well, thanks. That’s kind of you.
I actually don’t find it harder to connect. Not anymore, at least. Maybe my answer would’ve been different at the beginning of the season, or back in the spring.
But isn’t this how everything is now?
Our 6-year-old spent his first six weeks of first grade learning on an iPad. I am (in theory, anyway) a professional. I should be able to adjust as well.
The thing that makes those shows work (or not) is the chemistry of the people involved. If they’re stiff, afraid to step on toes, afraid to be themselves, then it doesn’t work.
Blair, Vahe, McDowell, Herbie and I have known each other for years. We’ve traveled together, had dinner together, had (occasionally) beers together. We’ve talked about our families, our childhoods, our frustrations, our successes. It just works.
I don’t mean to say doing it virtually isn’t a factor. Of course it is. The biggest thing is it’s a little harder to find a flow. When you’re sitting next to someone it’s easier to read body cues, to know when someone else has a point they want to make, and to know when there’s an opening for you to say something.
That becomes harder over an internet connection. It’s the same theory for why radio and TV shows prefer their guests to be in studio.
But, again, these are the times we’re in. We adjust. We try to make the best of it, try to find new ways to do the job.
I hope it works.
Well, thanks!
That’s interesting that you say that, too. I suppose it’d be easy enough to figure out for sure, but I’m not consciously trying to write more. At least when compared to normal times. If you’re comparing to when we didn’t have any sports, yes, I’m sure this is true.
I have been trying to write shorter, though. I’m glad you noticed this. Thank you.
I hope part of you noticing is that hopefully even the longer ones read quicker, but I have been trying to keep columns shorter.
Not because of a shortening attention span, though. Every six months or so I like to do a sort of audit of my work. I don’t read everything, but I take a few hours and go through a bunch of recent columns and look at broad strokes.
Is there a topic I’m writing too much about? Not enough?
What are the chances for great columns that I missed, either because I didn’t see it or didn’t execute what I saw well enough?
Are there phrases or structures I’m overusing?
What are other people doing that I should think more about?
This is actually something I tell students to do. When I was a student, someone told me to do it and I’ve found it helpful.
And one thing that’s showed up to me is that I can write too long.
There’s the old Mark Twain line: “If I had more time I would write a shorter letter.”
So, in the last year or so I’ve really tried to be conscious about this. Some of that is in the planning and writing. Some is in self-editing. But I want to respect the reader’s time. Some columns need to be 2,000 words. But others are a lot better at 900 than 1,500. Strip it down. Make every word count. Make your point and get out.
The Minutes, obviously, are an exception. I’ll let it eat here. But I am trying to get away from the 1,800 word game column. I want clarity, and hope I’m better at knowing when that should be prioritized over accounting for every detail.
So, again: thanks. Maybe this sounds weird but this is one of the coolest questions I’ve had here.
Well, I’ll tell you what we didn’t do. We didn’t sit inside because there was too much snow.
When I was little, it was probably the same as everyone else. We’d go sledding if we could, or play video games if we couldn’t. My mom was OBSESSED with winters and the cold so she’d make hot chocolate. Dad would make a fire, and maybe chili.
Is it weird that some of my best memories are from snow days?
In high school we developed a routine. We’d meet at Burger King for breakfast (shoutout french toast sticks) then go play football in the snow and then cards. Depending on the season, attendance could be spotty during football or basketball practice but we could usually find enough to make it work.
Once — and now that I’m thinking about it the temperatures must’ve been like -473 — it was so cold I had to scrape ice off the inside of my windshield. I have no idea how that happened. It was a 1978 Buick LeSabre, and I suppose it’s quite possible someone left a window cracked or something, but man.
So, actually, speaking of all this ... this week I’m particularly grateful for the look on our kids’ faces when they came downstairs and saw the snow. Magic.
This story was originally published October 27, 2020 at 5:00 AM.