Mellinger Minutes: Chiefs’ biggest threats, a new run game (?) and the Royals’ plan
We went even longer than usual on the questions, so I’ll at least make a token effort to keep this top sorta concise. It’s actually inspired by a reader submission:
Who are the Chiefs’ biggest threats in the AFC?
Because there are seven playoff teams in each conference now, let’s do the top six, in reverse order.
6. Bills. These guys might be breaking down in front of us. That was a stomp job two games ago against the Titans, and it never felt like they were even with the Chiefs. Josh Allen is amazing when he’s on, and he’s got some good receivers, but the run game struggles and the defense isn’t the same as a year ago.
5. Colts. I love their roster, and believe in Frank Reich. They defend both the pass and run well, and do it with a roster most of the league would trade for. They’re seventh overall in DVOA, ahead of the Steelers among others Indy would be higher on this list, but I just can’t get behind 39-year-old Philip Rivers like that.
4. Raiders. The win over the Chiefs might be the most impressive by any team in any game this season with the exception of the Bucs emasculating the Packers. Love their weapons, love their toughness. But there’s a lot of inconsistency there, and Derek Carr still hasn’t shown he can beat pressure.
3. Titans. Now we’re starting to get interesting. Most would have them higher on this list, and maybe they should be. They certainly look better on film than through numbers. Mike Vrabel is a rising star. The skill talent is solid, they win on turnovers, and Derrick Henry might be the exception to the running back rule.
2. Ravens. I saw the same thing you did when they played the Chiefs, but in the Ravens’ other five games they’re outscoring opponents by an average of 32-14. They’re second in DVOA, and only that low because the Bucs just played the best game anyone’s played all season. I wouldn’t underestimate their potential in a postseason rematch against the Chiefs.
1. Steelers. I wanted to see Ben Roethlisberger after the surgery before buying in on these guys, and he’s completing 69.1 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and just one interception. He’s only been sacked eight times all season. Their schedule has been really soft, but I’m not sure what they could’ve done so far that they haven’t. The Steelers would present some interesting matchups for the Chiefs’ secondary and pass rush, but they also blitz way more than anyone in the league, which Mahomes usually dices.
This list leaves off the Dolphins and Patriots, who are interesting in their own ways. But I’m thinking the Dolphins are still a year away at least, and the Patriots have too many personnel limitations for even Bill Belichick. The Browns are 4-2 with a win over the Colts, but I don’t think you can do it with a defense like that.
One interesting thing is we should start to get a little more clarity in the coming weeks. By the end of next weekend we’ll have seen Steelers-Titans, Steelers-Ravens, Bills-Patriots, and Raiders-Bucs.
This week’s reading recommendation is Domonique Foxworth (who’s building a terrific post-playing career) on Tyrann Mathieu and the eating recommendation is the wood fired chicken tacos at Brewery Emperial.
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Well, two things.
First: let’s make sure this is real. The Bills made essentially zero adjustments until the end, content with letting the Chiefs run so long as it meant Mahomes couldn’t turn them into extras in his highlight film.
That’s progress, yes, absolutely, because the Chiefs have seen this strategy deployed in essentially every game they’ve played this season and this is the first time they’ve beaten it like this.
It’s one thing to do what the Chiefs did in the opener against the Texans. That was fine enough. But going for 245 yards on the ground is going to draw a different level of attention, and the Chiefs’ challenge is to be able to run the ball effectively enough that defenses trade out a defensive back or two for a linebacker or lineman.
Second: the pass blocking has been fine. I know that’s an unpopular take, but that’s what I see.
We can do this with numbers. The Chiefs are allowing pressure on 22.4 percent of drop backs, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. That ranks 19th. The Chiefs are No. 7 in pass blocking according to Pro Football Focus, with 24 of the 79 pressures and three of the seven sacks surrendered credited/blamed on Mahomes. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs pass blocking ranks second, behind only the Packers.
Those numbers might surprise you. Part of that is unless it’s Quenton Nelson pancaking three dudes on one snap, we tend to notice offensive linemen when they get beat. But part of it, too, I think, is that we tend to blame all pressures on the linemen when some of them are on the quarterback.
That’s why those PFF numbers are interesting. As I’m writing this the All-22 from the Bills game isn’t yet available, so let’s look at two examples from the Raiders game.
This is what Mahomes means when he says he’s drifting too far in the pocket. Quarterbacks are taught to drop back no more than nine yards. Mahomes goes 12 here, and the pressure comes from his left side, but only because Eric Fisher doesn’t know how deep the pass rusher’s target is.
Fisher’s protecting the spot seven to nine yards behind the line of scrimmage, like he’s supposed to. He can’t account for Mahomes going further. That pressure is on the quarterback.
OK, here’s a different example, and this one shows up more often:
If he keeps his eyes downfield he has windows for two receivers near the goal line at the moment he plants his back foot — that’s Demarcus Robinson on a slant from the slot, and Travis Kelce on more of a hook over the middle.
These are high-level criticisms, and to be clear only available to make because of multiple viewings (and pausing) with the All-22 tape.
But these subtleties can be the difference between the Chiefs being great, or merely very good.
Chris’ question is more about Remmers’ pass blocking specifically, so I’m expanding it a bit here to talk about the line in general, because it does seem like a lot of fans believe the pass blocking is worse than reality.
Mitchell Schwartz is the Chiefs’ best lineman. He’s better in pass protection than run blocking, but he’s better in both than Remmers.
The development that I’m curious about is whether the Chiefs have found an in-house upgrade for the interior of the line.
Andy Reid protects his players, so he said that Daniel Kilgore’s start at center was to let Austin Reiter fully heal a knee that’s showed up on the injury report. But that had every look of a coach’s decision. We’ll have the answer based on who starts against the Broncos on Sunday.
Because Kilgore was terrific. So was Nick Allegretti, who played left guard after Remmers replaced Schwartz at right tackle.
I’d want to see more, and obviously the coaches have a better handle on this than any of us, but I wonder if the Chiefs’ best offensive line, left to right, is Fisher, Allegretti, Kilgore, Wylie, Schwartz.
That’d be a tough break if Remmers lost his job at left guard because he had to fill in for the injured right tackle, but this is a cold business.
I disagree strongly with this, but am including it to see if I’m in the minority.
Some of this is that I believe it’s easy to forget that football is never perfect, and that the NFL is always tilted toward parity, which means more teams close to average and few close to great.
This is sort of like when people complain every year, in every sport, that officiating is worse than ever.
But I also disagree because I think the NFL in general and the AFC in particular are top-heavy in a way we usually don’t see.
The Ravens got worked by the Chiefs, but are we dismissing a team that’s beaten everyone else on their schedule and went 14-2 last year?
The Steelers have played a soft schedule so far but they’re top four in both scoring and scoring defense.
The Titans are undefeated with the planet’s best running back, intriguing skill talent, and one of the league’s best coaches.
I’m not going to paint the Bills, Browns, Colts or Raiders as top Super Bowl contenders, but they look good enough to be dangerous in a playoff game.
The NFC East can go play in traffic, but what have the Seahawks, Bucs or Packers done to say they can’t win a Super Bowl? I’d put the Rams in that group, too.
There’s a little reverse-engineering here, trying to find a reason for a result, but with the exception of the Bucs all the teams I’m mentioning here as top contenders have a lot of continuity.
It makes complete sense that teams with that profile have benefitted from such a jumbled offseason. I’ll be curious to see if that trend continues, or if it lessens as the season goes on and everyone has more time with each other.
Two springs ago, Mathieu and some of the Chiefs’ power structure went out to dinner to celebrate the contract. Patrick Mahomes was there. Andy Reid. Brett Veach. Others.
They talked about Mathieu becoming the Mahomes of the defense — vocal leader, beloved teammate, fixer of problems. They talked about bringing pride to the defense. They talked about the defense becoming a reason the Chiefs can win, and not an obstacle for Mahomes and the offense to overcome. They talked about winning the Super Bowl.
All of those things came true.
One other thing they talked about: Mathieu playing so well that he forces the Chiefs to give him another big contract, so they can have another one of those dinners.
As it stands, why the heck would the Chiefs not want to keep Mathieu around long term?
And why the heck would Mathieu not want to stay around long term?
The salary cap will continue to be an enemy here. But the same as we’ve talked about with other stars, you’d expect Mathieu to give some on structure so the Chiefs can ride this out until the wheels fall off.
That’s the continuing gift of Patrick Mahomes — if the player who had more leverage than anyone in NFL history was willing to do a club-friendly structure, then his teammates better be willing to do the same.
You’re asking about the timing here, too. And I don’t know. Doing the extension a year before it expires would make sense, but I’m hesitating a little just because of how uncertain the world remains.
For instance, if by the offseason we have a vaccine or at least know that one is coming soon, then maybe we have a heightened confidence that the 2021 season will be closer to normal, with full stadiums and a strengthened economy and the bigger 2022 salary cap that would come from it.
If that’s the case, then yes. For sure.
If it’s not, the sides may agree to wait until they have more information.
But either way, at this point, it’s hard to imagine why either side would want change.
If I’m reading the spirit of your question correctly, the reason it matters in a Chiefs game is as a strategy to limit the number of snaps an opponent must defend Patrick Mahomes.
This can be an easy thing to miss, but it matters.
The Chiefs have had 50 possessions this season. That’s tied for the fewest in the league, even behind nine teams that have played fewer games. But they’re averaging 2.86 points per possession, which ranks fifth in the league.
Assuming the same efficiency, if they ranked league average in number of possessions, they’d have scored 25.7 more points. If they ranked first in number of possessions, that’s 62.9 more points.
Now, if we’re talking specifically about just one game, the effects are a little different. Each team gets the same chance at the ball. What matters is what you do with those possessions.
But the same way a basketball team with inferior talent wants to slow the pace, it’s in the Chiefs opponents’ best interests to limit possessions.
Across seven or eight possessions, maybe you can keep things close. Across 12 or 13, the task is more difficult.
How much time you got?
The word weaponize. The phrase full stop. Intentional and purposeful lying to make a point. Personal attacks based on something that should be a simple disagreement. Any point being made as us vs. them, presented in a way that you either agree completely or you hate puppies and children.
Undercooked chicken, and overcooked steak. Ranch dressing anywhere near something I’m going to eat. People who disrespect restaurant servers or teachers. Technology, when it doesn’t work.
Anytime anyone — and I’m including my wife and kids here — touch my face. Parents who take youth sports too seriously. Bullying.
Micromanaging. Complaints about the paywall. That feeling I get in some DIY projects, when I’m out over my skis and should’ve just left it alone or hired someone.
Also: mayonaise.
Not sure if this is the article you saw, but it’s the first result when you Google yankees royals trade whit merrifield josh staumont.
The hypothetical deal proposed: Merrifield and Staumont for prospects Luis Gil, Alexander Vizcaino and Josh Smith.
I can tell you the Royals have had no interest in taking mid-level prospects for Merrifield, let alone Merrifield and Staumont, let alone Merrifield and Staumont heading into a season in which the new owner wants to see big league progress.
None of the prospects are in MLB Pipeline’s top 100. None are expected in the big leagues next season. Let’s stop talking about this.
There was a time the Royals were open to trading Merrifield. Heck, there was a time the Royals wanted to trade him, presumably for high-end talent with an expected peak that would more align with the rest of what the Royals have.
There was a time they would have taken even value, is what I’m saying, but that time is past. Someone would have to overpay.
The broader point to make here, though, is that the Royals are sending signals that they are done talking rebuild. The core of what the front office hopes will be the next playoff team will be in the big leagues next year. Merrifield and Staumont are big parts of that.
If they make a significant trade, the one that would make the most sense could be trading from a place of strength (starting pitching) for a place of need (position players, particularly outfielders).
There are other factors at play, though. The front office has a new owner that just paid a billion dollars for the team, then immediately got blasted with a season that wrecked everyone’s financials. That owner has seen a team lose 100 games two seasons in a row, and then in 2020 was no higher than fourth in the division from the fifth day of the season on.
Sherman has subtly made it clear that on-field progress is both expected and required. Dayton Moore and his assistants know this. They understand it. This isn’t setting up a playoffs-of-bust season, that’s not what I’m saying.
What I’m saying is that in the words of an old Kansas City football coach, it’s time to take the diapers off. They need to make progress. And progress would be made difficult by trading two of the big league team’s better players (who are under long-term control) for some guys who might or might not be in the big leagues in a few years.
You probably know I’m a Skylar Thompson guy. I hate that injury for him. He was playing well, he looked confident. It sucks.
That said, we’re a game and a half into Will Howard and K-State hasn’t lost.
The TCU win was more on the rest of the roster than the quarterback, let’s be clear about that, but we haven’t seen a collapse.
You’re asking a forward-thinking question, and anybody who thinks they can predict anything in 2020 — let alone something as fickle as college football — is a delusional fool.
But the next game is against Kansas, which, come on. Then it’s West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Baylor and Texas.
If K-State can get three wins out of that, now we’re talking about a 6-4 team. There’s certainly the potential for more, and everyone but Oklahoma State has a loss already. Crazier things have happened than K-State making a run at this.
Then again, crazier things have happened than K-State finishing 2-4 or something with the backup quarterback.
Well, that’s not the way I’d put it. Mizzou is a 6-point underdog against Kentucky this weekend. This isn’t a game at Clemson or anything, but I’m not sure it’s fair to say a loss would mean they lost steam from a canceled follow-up to an emotional and potentially pivotal win.
Might just mean they got beat by a team they’ve lost to five years in a row.
But I do think it’s an interesting chance to learn a little more about Eli Drinkwitz, and the connection he’s building with his new team.
There was a lot to be impressed by from the LSU win, but one that stuck out was the belief. They had a lot of breaks go against them, and they kept fighting. They had a lot of chances to give in, or to see the outcome go the other way. LSU may or may not be any good, but Mizzou is running against the wind in terms of recruiting rankings, if nothing else.
The point is that the moxie Mizzou showed in that game matters. It’s encouraging. Now the trick is to make sure it’s not a fluke.
Kentucky is an interesting opponent. They gave up 71 points in their first two games, and nine in their last two, including a 34-7 thrashing of Tennessee. They run the ball well. They pass the ball less well.
You can say this about any game, but Missouri needs to limit the turnovers. That’s a huge part of Kentucky’s last two wins. Mizzou can’t expect a repeat of the LSU game in that way.
But, anyway, now I’m getting away from your question.
No, I don’t think the week off should hold Mizzou back. If anything, it’s an extra week to rest.
I’m with you. I’m surprised.
There are a million reasons we can come up with. The cable news world will blame this on social equality stances, but nobody’s been more vocal on that than the WNBA and their ratings are up. Meanwhile, you’re not seeing jockeys or horses in BLM gear and the Preakness was down 56 percent.
I’m not dismissing social justice demonstrations completely. Of course some will be turned off by that, and prefer their entertainment without messaging. But there’s no logic in pretending that’s the entire problem, or even a big part.
My assumption is that a lot of people who are vocal on that still watch, or wouldn’t be watching anyway.
So, the answer is more complicated than a lot of people would prefer for their agenda.
For me, three answers make more sense than anything else. In no particular order:
There’s so much on. The NBA Finals have never had to compete with the NFL, and vice versa. We’ve had days where baseball’s playoffs, the NBA’s playoffs, college or pro football, and golf tournaments have competed against each other. There’s only so much time in a day.
New habits. Sports stopped for months. They went away, but we still had our lives to live. Maybe people found new shows to watch — Netflix never paused — or new ways to spend their time. Maybe people got used to a beer on the back deck, or family bike rides, or new pride in growing a garden. Maybe they — gasp! — started reading more.
It’s all so weird. The NBA playoffs are supposed to be in packed gyms, the noise from sellout crowds and music vibrating the seats. The interaction between players and fans is part of the fun. That’s been replaced by what looked more like televised closed scrimmages. The same is true in most sports, and 20 percent capacity for football or World Series games can’t replace the energy that draws a lot of people to sports. It’s a lesser entertainment product, if we’re honest.
It’s an interesting trend.
The empires of leagues and teams are not built on those of us who know who the next day’s starting pitcher is, or that the Chiefs’ next opponent plays the run well or, for that matter, think about how these declining ratings and attendance will impact future NFL salary caps.
The fortunes are made on attracting casual fans, and getting them to go to one extra game, or sit through some commercials because they’re hooked on a storyline.
And it’s easy to see how those casual fans could find other ways to spend their time now.
The words I’m about to type might make me sound like a 90-year-old man, but everyone involved with that program needs to show way more patience than anyone involved in that program has shown in a decade.
Kansas football is in its current mess ... and before we go further, at the risk of dumping salt in an open wound, let us quickly define “current mess” as a team that has:
- lost to a Sun Belt team by 15 at home.
- lost each of its other three games by an average of 31.3 points.
- lost to an average conference team by 21 and called it “the best game we’ve had so far.”
- had eight in the box, including three players in a linebacker’s spot between the tackles ...
... and still gave up this:
OK. Definitions out of the way. The point is that KU football is not in this mess simply because Lew Perkins screwed up by firing Mark Mangino, or simply because Turner Gill was a terrible hire, or simply because Charlie Weiss pulled an all-time con job on Sheahon Zenger, or simply because David Beaty was overmatched, or simply because of all the challenges the program has with geography, recruiting base, tradition, the basketball program, fan interest or anything else.
The program is in this mess BECAUSE OF ALL THAT, plus a line of self-inflicted programs from terrible decisions by administration.
The point here isn’t to beat a horse that hasn’t breathed in a decade. The point is that a problem that’s been going on this long for this many different reasons can’t be fixed overnight. Or in a year. Or two. Or three.
Did you know that since 1966 only two KU football coaches have been there for five consecutive seasons?
Miles was KU’s fourth new coach in 10 years, and that doesn’t include Clint Bowen’s time as interim.
I am not making the case that Gill deserved more time. I’m CERTAINLY not making the case that Weis deserved more time. Or Beaty. And I’m ABSOLUTELY NOT making the case that Les Miles is the answer.
What I’m saying is that KU can guarantee it will never find the answer if it keeps churning through coaches this quickly.
There may be a point when Miles gives them no choice. There are a lot of reasons to doubt him, and a lot of challenges he and his assistants need to overcome.
But they’re at least approaching it the right way in roster building. The cycle of quick fires incentivized Miles’ predecessors to chase quick fixes to problems sunk in quicksand, and the result is overloaded recruiting classes that left rosters short on scholarships and long on juco kids who had little buy-in.
Miles is going after high school recruits. He’s getting them into the program, through the strength program, learning how the thing operates from the ground up.
Again. I’m not saying he’ll fix it. Or that he’s the right man to do it. But this is the right plan, and the only one that has a chance of working.
I want Drew Lock to do the backpack thing and rap lyrics on the sideline until he retires at 42.
But I also want him to last until he’s 42.
He beat Belichick, so god bless, but our guy was struggling.
So, I have no idea what Halloween will be like this year. It’s usually a literal shut-down-the-streets sort of thing in the neighborhood, but this year?
Might just be a few selected neighbors who make up for it with handing out the candy of 10 oxen.
But, anyway, you asked a question.
Are going as: a cobra snake and dragon.
Should go as: professional wrestlers, and if we stay with their personalities the younger one would be a party frat guy and the older one would be a police officer.
This is an interesting question. I hope the answer is that it’s easier than ever to make connections, and easier than ever for people to read your stuff.
I hope the answer is NOT that the way to get noticed is to say something ridiculous on Twitter, or otherwise take stands that you patently do not believe in other than their ability to get some reaction from some guy in some place.
The trick about a lot of jobs in sports media is that they are the easiest thing in the world to do poorly, and much more difficult to do well. And when I say difficult, I don’t mean it in the way that a surgeon’s job is difficult, or a teacher’s.
I mostly mean that you just need some self-discipline to do the work even when nobody’s watching, and to be thoughtful even when you’re unsure if anyone will notice, and to be honest enough to speak from your heart even when the reaction won’t be what you’d prefer (and that can be taken a number of ways).
I suppose the scope of the job is broader now. When I started, there was no Twitter, and Facebook was still mostly cat videos and connecting with family and old friends.
The way you got noticed then — or, at least, the way I tried to get noticed — was by showing up and doing the work and making it as good as you possibly can. You got noticed first by your immediate co-workers, then your boss(es), and hopefully it grew from there.
I wonder if the route has changed now. There are fewer editors, fewer bosses, and more — gawd I hate this term — content creators.
I’m not going all old man, in-my-day-a-movie-cost-a-nickel here. There is an overwhelming amount of great work being done, and lot of it is being done by men and women without so-called brand names. That’s incredibly exciting and inspiring for those of us who do this work, love this work, and believe in this work.
But I do fear that some who are otherwise smart and talented and motivated enough to do exceptional work will be tempted by the shortcuts that are available now and that I never had to worry about.
I heard this all the time when I was starting out, but I’m not sure I believed it was as true as it is: your career in this business can be whatever you want it to be.
If you want to be a baseball beat writer, and are willing to pursue that goal above all others, you can. Same thing if you want to be a columnist, or profile writer, or whatever.
One step further: if you want to be known as thoughtful and a thorough reporter and clear or elegant writer, you can do that.
If you want to take the shortcut and grab cheap attention with silly schticks, you can do that, too.
Your work and the market will decide what kind of audience you get, and how seriously they will take you. But you can make yourself whatever you want.
This week, I’m particularly grateful that our first grader is finally back in school. Both kids need it, on many levels. But I’m also particularly grateful for the extra time we’ve had with them. We’d all rather it be normal again, but we can’t control that. All we can do is be as safe as we can and make the best of what we have, right?
And I’ll remember this time forever, of being able to see them learn up-close, and take them in the yard to play catch for “recess,” and see them adapt in ways I was honestly sure they wouldn’t.
This story was originally published October 21, 2020 at 5:00 AM.