Mellinger Minutes: 11 hilarious Mahomes throws, tough Chiefs defense + lots of Royals
Hopefully this doesn’t come across as a directive to click away from here, but we have something like 4,000 words on the Chiefs plus 11 ridiculous Patrick Mahomes videos below, so we’re going to start with the 2020 Royals.
May they be appropriately remembered, and here’s to starting the process of imagining the 2021 Royals.
We will start with the bad. Major League Baseball allowed more teams into the postseason than ever before, and even with a shortened season presumably benefiting lesser teams, the Royals were never a threat.
In many broad strokes, the Royals went backwards. Three of the American League’s best five records came from the Central division, the imbalanced schedule shining an unforgiving light about how the Royals compare.
The Royals won just one of 10 games against the White Sox.
They won half of their other games.
The White Sox aren’t going anywhere. Luis Robert (22), Eloy Jimenez (23), Nick Madrigal (23) and Tim Anderson (27) are under club control anywhere from two to seven more years. Lucas Giolito is 25, and just struck out 97 batters in a little more than a third of a normal season.
This is all very un-good for the Royals.
But we learned some good things about the Royals in 2020, too. They finished 12-6 over the last three weeks or so. You can make your Kyle Davies jokes, and some of them will be funny, but that counts for something.
Most notably, we learned the young pitching is as far along as could be reasonably expected. Brad Keller continues to flip strikeout-to-walk ratio analysis on its head. Brady Singer looked the part from his first day, and his last four starts were nails — 24 innings, 25 strikeouts, 17 baserunners allowed, 1.50 ERA, .114/.205/.165 slash against. Without Singer, more people would be noticing Kris Bubic: 30 strikeouts and a 2.96 ERA over his last five starts.
Keller is the old man of that group, and he turned 25 in July.
Josh Staumont and Kyle Zimmer dominated. Jesse Hahn, Trevor Rosenthal and Greg Holland present good arguments for this front office’s ability to build a bullpen. Jakob Junis’ stuff plays up as a reliever. The Royals have much more pitching on the way, including a prospect (Asa Lacy) or two (Daniel Lynch) that some scouts believe could be better than anyone on the big league staff.
Salvador Perez was spectacular: .333/.353/.633 with 11 homers and 12 doubles in just 37 games. The questions about his long-term durability and productivity if he stays at catcher will remain, but that was an emphatic return from Tommy John surgery.
But other questions remain unanswered. Big questions.
Is Adalberto Mondesi among the worst players in baseball, the way he was in July and August? Or is he among the best, like in September?
Can Nicky Lopez hit big-league pitching?
Who the heck plays in the Royals’ future outfield?
Do the Royals have enough pitching to absorb the inevitable injuries and disappointments?
We would have clearer answers to these questions with 102 more games, or even if baseball’s rules were allowing for more organized workouts this offseason to make up the difference.
My best guesses are (in order) that Mondesi will become an All-Star caliber player with maddening stretches of inconsistency*, that the differences between Lopez’s strikeout-to-walk ratios in the big leagues (92-36) and minor leagues (139-167) are a bad sign, that the Royals would love Nick Heath to be part of the answer, and maybe?
* The key with him, as it’s always been, is strike zone management. He took eight walks in September, compared with three in July and August combined.
I’m thankful that MLB finished the season, even at just 60 games. Beyond the feel-good part, I hope the impact is that America sees it’s not about eating as much as it is self-discipline prevention like masks and hand washing and distancing. The playoffs will be fun.
But the Royals really could have used the rest of a normal season. It would have been long, and at different times boring and frustrating, but we’d know a lot more about the team than we do right now.
We’re going to talk more about all of this below, so for now here’s a shorthand of what I expect the approach to be. The front office will operate as if Mondesi will be a star, even if Bobby Witt Jr. looks to be a heck of a fallback option. The organization will need a lot of important players — not just Mondesi, but Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler, Franchy Cordero, Heath, etc. — to make the most of the next few months ahead of spring training.
I’m not expecting any major moves, though I do believe Danny Duffy could be had for the right price. The approach will generally be of continued patience. Perhaps a veteran outfielder will be brought in. Everybody is always looking for pitching.
This remains a long-term play, even as fan patience is wearing thin.
Next season is critically important. The Royals will debut a number of homegrown players to the big leagues including, perhaps, Witt Jr. and Lacy. The idea will be to acclimate them all not just to big-league competition, but to 162 games*.
* Hopefully!
We will, vaguely, be in the 2011-2012 version of the last rebuild: transition, youth, moments of failure and success.
The traction is starting. The Royals are becoming interesting again.
This week’s eating recommendation is the shawarma at Aladdin Cafe, and the reading recommendation is one of my favorite writers with this wild tale: Gene Weingarten on a neighbor asking for a tomato.
Thanks to everyone who’s listened to our Mellinger Minutes For Your Ears podcast, and here is a big warm invitation to start if you haven’t already. We had some delivery issues in the beginning, but those are fixed now that we’re out from behind the paywall and free on Apple or Spotify or Stitcher or whoever you animals get your shows these days.
Last week, we appreciated Alex Gordon and took the best question in the history of the show.
Reminder: if you’d like to participate in the show — and I’d love for you to do that — please call 816.234.4365 and leave your first name, where you’re calling from, and almost literally question.
Please give me a follow on Twitter and Facebook and, as always, thanks for your help and thanks for reading.
This might be a topic later in the week so I’ll try to keep this short:
BJ, No.
Let’s not start this.
No.
The Chiefs will lose. At some point. Maybe. I think so. Possibly.
They will lose because injuries pile up. They will lose because the interior of the offensive line will give in. They will lose because of fumbles, or special teams mistakes, or other forms of the vagaries of football.
Here’s the path to beat the Chiefs: overwhelm the interior of the offensive line, contain Mahomes’ escapability as much as possible, and for goodness sake eliminate the deep pass. When you have the ball, run it as much as possible.
When you decide to throw, make sure you double Frank Clark or Chris Jones, keep the ball away from Tyrann Mathieu and put the linebackers and defensive backs in spots where they have to make one-on-one tackles.
The Chiefs are not perfect. They are as fun as football teams can be, but they are not perfect.
They will lose, you guys.
Maybe.
The honest answer is that a lot of us — I AM GUILTY OF THIS — are distracted by shiny objects.
Mahomes is the shiniest object in sports right now, and not only will I not apologize for being distracted by him — I’m going to double down with the next answer.
But, Mauricio: you bring up a great point.
The defense was fantastic. This was the fewest yards they’ve given up since the Thursday Night Kneecap game in Denver last season and, considering the opponent and moment, I would argue the best game in Steve Spagnuolo’s time here.
Frank Clark will be the first man named. On first look, Clark seemed to have the toughest assignment in the group: contain Lamar Jackson’s scramble, play the run against the league’s best run offense, and if you have time leftover please get to the quarterback.
He did all that, and finished with a sack and two hurries.
Chris Jones pressured Jackson out of the pocket, and then took smart angles to prevent big plays. Taco Charlton made an impact in 14 snaps. The linebackers kept discipline. Juan Thornhill played his best game of the season. Mike Pennel’s impact showed up. The corners held up.
Here’s a thing that’s true: the Ravens averaged 394 yards and 35.5 points in their first two games, and managed 228 yards and 13 points (on offense) against the Chiefs.
It was the Ravens’ fewest yards since Lamar Jackson became the quarterback, and the second lowest point total (12 in last season’s playoff loss).
The NFL is a very week-to-week existence, but other than the first quarter of the playoff game against the Texans the Chiefs defense has been terrific since the last drive against the Titans in Week 10 last season.
They’ve done that against a wide variety of schemes and quarterbacks — Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Derrick Henry, the 49ers, and now Lamar Jackson.
They’ve given up 20 points in each game and if we lived in a world in which the Chiefs’ opponent scores 20 points in every game then we would live in a world in which the Chiefs win every Super Bowl from now until Patrick Mahomes gets bored and takes up bull fighting or something.
Now, we should recognize at least two things that worked in the defense’s favor last night: Mahomes at his Mahomes-est remains the team’s best defensive player, and the Ravens absolutely panicked.
If there was a weekly time suck like this based in Baltimore, it would be justifiably crushing the Ravens for abandoning the run, losing touch with what they are, and the general defeatist body language of Jackson and his teammates for much of the last three quarters.
The Chiefs did their part, and played as close to their best as can be reasonably expected.
But that was not the Ravens’ finest hour.
You could lop off Mahomes’ 20 best throws and you’d still have a highlight reel better than just about anyone.
But, yes. Since you asked, I counted 11 plays that made me laugh or shake my head.
Eleven!
That’s a quarter of his drop backs that end with hilarity or awe. We’ll go through them in chronological order. But before we do that, it’s worth pointing something out.
We spent some time last week talking about Mahomes’ tendency to drift in the pocket. He does this a lot. It’s a bad habit, one I assume he came by honestly at Texas Tech and didn’t need to correct because he can make throws from anywhere.
But in the NFL those details matter, not just because a bad habit like that makes throws more difficult, but also because it makes protection more difficult. The linemen are protecting a spot, and they can’t see when that spot moves. It can jam up the whole operation.
Well, one of Mahomes’ great subtle geniuses is his ability to self-correct almost immediately. He wasn’t perfect against the Ravens, but he was close, and he did not drift. He’s like one of those self-teaching robots that are going to kill us all someday.
Anyway, OK, let’s get to the clips:
The ol’ “fake a screen to the left, no, wait: fake it to the right, no, just kidding: screen up the middle to your badass tight end play” never gets old.
If you didn’t laugh at the Sausage screen you have no soul.
Your guy faked a jump pass, scrambled left, threw right (sidearmed) to convert 3rd down.
This ball went through a window that Mahomes could only imagine when he threw it.
Got some strong Wasp vibes on this one.
This pass is perfectly placed, and I’m including the play here because I’m guessing we’re going to see more and more of Clyde Edwards-Helaire put one-on-one against a linebacker who may very well be fast (like Patrick Queen here) but nonetheless has no chance.
Let’s split Mahomes wide left, hand it off, then pitch it back and have him throw to the spot he just vacated. This play didn’t even really work all that well and it went for eight yards.
Plays like this are a separater for the Chiefs and Mahomes. It’s not just design and talent. It’s brains, too, like shifting the defense to your right so you can dump an easy pass to your first-round running back to the left for an easy 3rd down conversion.
Defenses live for this: a free rush at the star quarterback. This is where they hit the man hard, then do some weird dance, scream into the air and feel like kings. Except when the quarterback sees the free rush without looking, steps into the pocket a step, turns sideways at the right time, then gets his shoulders back square to thrown downfield for a first down. Mercy.
Many quarterbacks are dangerous when scrambling to their strong side — righties to their right, lefties to their left. But how many are this consistently effective going the wrong way? We see this so often — Mahomes gets out to his left, squares his shoulders back toward the field, then finds some weird new arm angle to shove the ball through a tight hole — that it can sometimes feel normal. But it is not normal. No sir.
And then, come on. Did you really need to throw a touchdown to your left tackle? The best part of this play is that Mahomes said it was so open in practice he started making Fisher work for the catches, just to test his range. Paid off here, because Fisher had to jump for it.
ELEVEN.
Goodness. I need a cold drink.
They can’t all be like the Ravens game, but there is a 0.0% chance that this is a coincidence.
The Chiefs played a C+ game against the Chargers, and have the level of professional pride that means they were demonstrably upset with winning a division road game like that.
The coaches also wanted their piece. Steve Spagnuolo is brilliant at finding creative ways to pressure while still covering the back end. Reid and Eric Bieniemy and everyone else on the offensive side seemed to be tripping over themselves to call the next dazzler.
One of the points I tried to make in the game column is that the Chiefs are now a level above the task of winning NFL games. They can do that. They’ve proven that.
The Chiefs are now on a level where the competition is themselves, and they seem to not just be OK with showing it in the biggest moments but to thrive at the opportunity to do so.
The Texans provided the first chance in the league’s season opener. The Ravens were the second chance, in one of the most anticipated games of the year. The Chiefs will have more — Bill Belichick’s defense this weekend, the suddenly trendy Bills on a Thursday night road game, Sunday night at the Death Star in Week 11, Tom Brady’s Bucs in Week 12, the Saints (if they’re still good by then) in Week 15, and then of course the playoffs*.
* HOPEFULLY!
Reid’s teams have always been more consistent than NFL rules typically allow, but now this group has cultivated the metaphorical assassin worldview where the moment is never too big but, rather, seems to make themselves bigger.
Yes. I have many thoughts.
First: can you possibly understand the ego required to win a Super Bowl, sign for half a billion dollars, be called one of the four best in the world at you do and STILL take that as disrespect?
Second: can you possibly understand the greatness required to be called one of the four best in the world at what you do and be ABSOLUTELY CORRECT that you’ve been disrespected?
It’s mind blowing, really.
I know we say this a lot here, but it should not be forgotten or taken for granted:
We are watching the best to ever do it, from scratch.
Probably, but before we go any further I’d like to direct your attention to this, from Frank Clark’s answer when asked after Monday night’s game about being the underdog.
“Typical. Coming off a Super Bowl winning year, you’ll get doubted. You’ve got these teams you come up against and it’s not going to be first time and it’s not going to be the last time. I think it’s more important that we come into every week knowing that teams are going to look at us as the top dogs and knowing we’re going to be doubted outside of that.
“Who wants to see the winners win at the end of the day? That’s our view. If you go down the history of sports, with the Patriots, the Chicago Bulls, you know different teams in their own time when they’re winning. Did people cheer for them? Nope, not necessarily. Everybody always wants to see the top dog get knocked off. And that was one of those weeks you see all the analysts, everybody talking about it, you know, Ravens over the Chiefs. But we came out, executed, and got it done. That’s all that matters.”
The mental gymnastics!
This is a smart, highly trained, elite athlete at the height of his powers claiming two things that fundamentally cannot co-exist: that they are both the top dog and disrespected.
The stuff about the Patriots and Bulls is just ... chef’s kiss. The Patriots are regularly the most popular or among the most popular teams in various metrics. The Bulls are still one of the NBA’s most popular teams, and Jordan hasn’t played for them in 22 years.
I get what he’s saying about some fans wanting to see the champion knocked off, but come on, you can’t play in a league of 32 teams and expect everyone to root for you.
This is sort of peak athlete stuff here, and you can go ahead and inject it into by veins. The stubborn delusion that’s so unapologetically adopted by so many athletes is one of the sweet background songs of following major sports.
So, go on Chiefs, you adorable, hilarious, disrespected powerhouse.
A related question:
The best teams evoke strong reactions, and I’m not sure anyone this century has been better at this than the Patriots.
Win six Super Bowls and you’ll make a lot of fans but you’ll also make a lot of fans sick of seeing your ugly face. The Patriots combined that with an arrogance stolen from a comic book, boosted perfectly by constant smoke and occasional fire involving, well, let’s be kind and call it pushing the boundaries of rules.
If the Chiefs are in the beginning stages of hoarding Lombardi trophies then of course a lot of fans will be turned off. Clark does have a point: a certain number of fans get tired of seeing the same teams win.
The Chiefs have some cockiness, too. Mahomes, Kelce, Clark, Mathieu, Jones — these guys have rap star egos. Tyreek Hill is out here predicting seven Super Bowls.
But if that’s the way this goes, the Chiefs are a good bet to be more Bulls than Patriots. They are more innately likable. The Patriots were so cold, and with the exceptions of Randy Moss and Rob Gronkowsi did their damage with flawless execution more than overwhelming talent. They wanted to choke chance out of the game, winning on field goals if they had to.
The Chiefs are a revelation, a collection of specific talent perfectly positioned to thrive in the NFL of speed and athleticism. They are aggressive. Fast. Creative. Their quarterback has an easy way about him publicly, and their coach is one of the most liked in the industry.
So, yes. If the Chiefs win like they expect to win they will absolutely become the team many fans are sick of seeing.
But it’s hard to imagine them being the villain, at least the way we’ve come to see the Patriots fill that role.
Yeah, this is a problem. The Titans have what looks like an outbreak: nine confirmed positive COVID cases. They’ve closed their facility. Same with the Vikings, who played the Titans on Sunday.
This is what the first stage of the NFL’s nightmare scenario. Without going to a form of a bubble like the NBA and NHL this was always likely. The key now is doing a better job of containment than baseball, which nearly lost two eventual playoff teams when the Marlins and Cardinals had outbreaks.
You’ve heard me say this a million times, but we’re all guessing with COVID, so instead of speculating on what the league can or should do let me point out what the league has in place.
The protocols are as strong as could be imagined, with the notable exception of a bubble. The league has advanced testing, with quick results. Contact tracing is strong. Teams have every reason to stress distancing when possible, as well as masks and hand washing and all the other COVID things.
Having a week between games is a bonus. If the cases can be isolated to those who’ve already tested positive, then the Titans move on. The Vikings, too.
If not, then those secret contingencies the league hoped it wouldn’t need are going to be stress tested.
One lesson from baseball I hope was learned: this doesn’t have to be the end.
It’s easy to forget now, but a lot of fans and media wanted the league shut down when the Marlins and Cardinals had outbreaks. Sure seemed like that’s what was going to eventually happen, at certain points.
But there’s an old baseball saying about not making a decision until you have to, and through some luck and a lot of adherence and a LOT of doubleheaders we had a sort of baseball season.
Here’s hoping the same happens now, and that the NFL keeps this from getting as close to the edge as we saw baseball.
Not really. Sorry. Just being honest here.
Alex Gordon has been the team’s primary left fielder since 2011. He’s retiring.
Whit Merrifield played more games in both center and right field than anyone else, and his best position is second base. Hunter Dozier started 18 games in right field, but could be the team’s first baseman of the future. Bubba Starling started 16 times in center, but he’s 28 years old with a .204/.246/.298 slash line*.
* The case can be made that few lost more from a shortened season than Starling. The Royals have wanted regular action for him for years, and with 102 more games they may have been able to find it. As it stands now, it’s hard to make the case.
Jorge Soler is a better DH than right fielder, though if the centerfielder ends up being someone like Nick Heath then Soler makes a little more sense. Edward Olivares is going to be considered. Franchy Cordero is interesting if — IF — he can be healthy. Khalil Lee, Kyle Isbel and Seuly Matias remain promising in different ways.
We’ve already named 10 players, but this is also true: if Adalberto Mondesi and Bobby Witt Jr. each become what the Royals hope, the team could decide the best position for one — Witt Jr. would be my guess — could be center field.
Now we’ve named 12 players.
And I really don’t know how to clarify the situation without rampant speculation.
I’m telling you: the Royals could use 102 more games.
I hear you. But I also think this is true:
Part of why September stats are so notoriously misleading is that you have so many matchups between teams or individual players with nothing on the line. That environment is fundamentally different than the baseball games in which reputations are made.
But consider that 16 of the Royals’ 25 games in September were against teams that qualified for the postseason.
The playoffs are watered down, nobody’s arguing that, but the point here is that when Adalberto Mondesi went to the plate during the most productive month of his career he was usually seeing a highly motivated pitcher good enough to be on a playoff team.
I’m not here arguing that Mondesi is going to slash .356/.408/.667 for the rest of his career.
But I am saying he did not slash .356/.408/.667 in September by eating off a bunch of 4A jagoffs.
That would surprise me.
I asked Gordon about his plans, and he was vague, other than wanting to drink a beer, eat some pizza, and beat Whit Merrifield at golf.
Gordon is certainly smart and respected enough to be a manager, but I don’t see it in his personality. He talks constantly of wanting more time with his family — a lot of guys do, but I believe Gordon when he says it — and managing takes up more time than playing.
My expectation is that Gordon won’t do much publicly in the next year or so. The Royals will hold an Alex Gordon Day, and he’ll throw out the first pitch, but he seems like a man who wants to help his kids with their homework, drive them to school, maybe coach their teams, and generally make up for the time he’s been away all these years.
He has an open door to some sort of role with the team, but I’m not sure the best fit. I’d be surprised if he committed to the time away required to scout, or coach.
Maybe he’s invited to spring training to talk with young players. Maybe he’s on call for consulting on certain personnel projects. Maybe he’s something like a liaison between baseball operations and the community — I could see him being a great link between the club and youth leagues.
I really don’t know and, much more importantly, I’m not sure Gordon does either. He has time to figure it out.
In the words of Chris Klieman: that’s day to day, and COVID test to COVID test.
It’s a heck of a win. This isn’t one of those top-5, get-them-hyped-up-just-in-time-to-lose-by-20-in-the-CFP-semifinal OU teams, but still. There won’t be many Big 12 teams that can brag on a win over the Sooners this fall.
Skylar Thompson and the offense looked much sharper against Oklahoma than in the loss to Arkansas State, particularly in the second half. If you believe the logical explanation that a lack of practices fed into the problems two weeks ago then, yes, you can dram a little here.
They’re in the mix, sure. You beat Oklahoma in the conference opener and that’s where you are. At this point, the only thing I’m sure of about the mix is that Kansas is not in it.
K-State will need some progress. They will need some luck. They will need a lot of negative COVID tests.
Texas might be the conference’s best team, but they’re still Texas, and they can obviously be scored on. The winner of this league is going to have a loss, maybe two. K-State has a win over the league’s dominant power. That’s a heck of a start, at least.
Yeah, it’s hard to know what to take from games like this. The talent levels and expectations are just so different. The way they fought was good; the way they trailed 28-3 at halftime was less good.
I like where you’re focusing here, though.
Because the differences in physical talent are so big it can be hard to analyze play calling, or execution, or any number of things. But being called for just three penalties is pretty encouraging.
This could be a one-off — we spent a lot of time talking about the Chiefs having just one penalty in their opener, then less time talking about their 11 penalties against the Chargers — but it’s a start.
Context matters here, too. When the guy across from you is stronger or faster or both it becomes tempting to hold a bit, to cut corners in some way that you hope the officials don’t see. That Mizzou refrained, and did so while competing, is a nice sign.
But we’ll know more about them and Drinkwitz after this Saturday’s game against Tennessee, and as the season goes on.
The more I learn about Drinkwitz the more encouraged I am. But it’s still so early.
Honestly, I’m good with just about any on-field or personnel decision Les Miles and his assistants want to make right now. Because I’m not sure how much any of it matters.
Miles may be in over his head. He certainly wouldn’t be the first KU football coach like that, and he probably won’t be the last. At this point, we have more reason to doubt him than we do believe.
But this is only his second season, and it was always logical to expect a step back in on-field performance.
If nothing else, Miles deserves credit for trying to build this thing with some sustainability, with high school recruits instead of the juco grab bag that his predecessors each railed against and then deployed.
I want at least another year or two before we start analyzing smaller points like this.
There are reasons to be skeptical about Miles, and we’ll get to those this fall. But I’m not worried about the smaller stuff right now.
I have!
I’m a casual NBA guy. I love basketball, and find the NBA’s storylines, the athleticism, and the shotmaking to be incredible.
But I don’t have a particular rooting interest* and there is only so much time to watch sports.
* Though if it was entirely up to me the Lakers would win in 3 and LeBron would average 60.
The weekends are loaded with football, I watch the Royals whenever possible, work in some soccer, and, anyway, there’s a time limit on how long our TV can be on a basketball game at night before my wife wants to watch Yellowstone.
But the actual games have been tremendous. The Nuggets were fun to watch. The Celtics’ ability to blow leads is impressive. Anthony Davis is the best No. 2 LeBron has had,* and the Heat are a blast. Bam Adebayo is so much better than I expected.
* Dwyane Wade was a better player than Davis is at the moment, perhaps, but Davis is an infinitely better complement to LeBron.
The games are weird, like everything else in the world right now. I didn’t expect this but I miss having fans at games in basketball more than baseball and football. I’m not quite sure why that is, but thought it’s worth bringing up since you asked about the TV product.
But, either way, watching LeBron in is SEVENTEENTH SEASON and fourth team he’s taken to the Finals is very compelling.
* I know everyone says third, but for all intents and purposes the Cavs teams pre- and post-South Beach were very different teams.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for this moment on Monday morning. My wife had taken our 4-year-old to preschool, which meant our first grader was on his own remote learning for a few minutes before I got off a call. When I came downstairs I peaked in the room and he was submitting an assignment on his iPad.
I can’t wait for him to be in a classroom again, but it’s been really cool to get a glimpse of him learning and adapting, and be a small part of that process along with my wife and an amazing first-grade teacher.
This story was originally published September 30, 2020 at 5:00 AM.