You can see the Royals improving. But can you believe it’s enough?
We may get to a place where none of this matters. Years of planning, years of working, years of deciding, years of developing. And, honestly, it could all end up as a supporting role in some other franchise’s highlight.
But ... we might as well see, right?
This is the homestretch of a 2020 baseball season that’s been strange for everyone and a mix of frustration, promise, highlights and disappointment for the Royals.
But first — before we examine where the Royals’ rebuild is in broad strokes — let us acknowledge that as much as anything this 2020 season has shown us how far their effort is behind the Twins (among the World Series favorites), Indians (can’t go a day without finding another pitching prospect) and White Sox (without exaggeration, one of the most talented teams in recent memory). The Tigers are a game ahead of the Royals in the big league standings and own the sport’s No. 2 farm system, according to MLB.com.
No team operates in a vacuum, and the Royals’ graduation of prospects to the major leagues is happening in a widely different environment than 2012 to 2015, when a total of just two American League Central teams won more than 90 games.
“Completely different,” Royals general manager Dayton Moore said. “Completely different.”
But, at least for a moment, let’s move on from the fact that the White Sox have the American League’s best record with a core that is both largely young and under long-term club control.
The rest of these words will be about the Royals.
The Royals entered the weekend 21-29, which is a 94-loss pace over 162 games — Please! Come back, 162-game seasons! — good for last place and a significant improvement from before the recent six-game win streak.
Some of the struggles can be fairly attributed to the growing pains of a young club — erratic defense, rotten clutch hitting, inconsistencies from a core group the Royals need to be consistent.
Other concerning trends have emerged — Adalberto Mondesi needs to be more productive, the defense needs to cover more ground (especially in the outfield), and the offense needs to get away from relying so heavily on a small group of hitters.
There has been development. Positive signs. Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, and Josh Staumont deserve to be the first mentioned individually here.
Singer and Bubic are the first men up from the 2018 draft class that may soon do the heavy lifting on a championship-level rotation. Staumont is the 14-strikeouts-per-9-innings headliner of a revamped bullpen that’s provided an element of stability after last season’s disaster.
More are on the way, too. The Royals believe pitchers Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, and especially Asa Lacy are potential future All-Stars. They have high hopes for Kyle Isbel and especially Bobby Witt Jr., not to mention a belief that more production can be had from a group fresh to the big leagues that includes Nicky Lopez, Edward Olivares, Nick Heath, Tyler Zuber and Carlos Hernandez.
The Royals’ immediate future is now largely in the hands of guys who’ve played little or no big league baseball.
That makes for an uncertain go, but here’s a scenario the front office could probably live with — the core group pushes near or above .500 the first three or so months of a hopefully (VERY HOPEFULLY) full 2021 season, then begins to fade down the stretch of the first 162-game schedule of their lives.
Lacy and especially Witt Jr. will likely begin the season in the minor leagues, but their Kansas City debuts could come sooner than later.
The only certainty of young ballplayers is that their development won’t come in a straight line, but you can see how the Royals are stacking enough pieces together to make a real run.
At some point — after next season, perhaps — Moore will ask owner John Sherman to spend on free agents or trades to fill holes.
We’re not to the point of knowing what that will be. The Royals have no position on the field that is either a lock or definite hole.
Catcher, shortstop, second base — the Royals have a lot invested there, but who can be sure what that will look like in two years?
Center field, first base, third base — the big league roster lacks long-term locks, but the organization has candidates to fill.
Broad strokes, here is an incomplete list of what went right this season: young pitching developed (Kyle Zimmer deserves mention), Hunter Dozier continues to grind productive plate appearances, Mondesi had a run he can dream on this offseason, Lopez seems to have settled, they stayed relatively healthy (especially the pitchers) and Mike Matheny has handled radical change (within himself and around him) admirably.
Broad strokes, an incomplete list of what went wrong: Mondesi stared down offensive failure for two months, the defense wasn’t close to good enough, the hitters mostly stunk in important spots, no young hitters broke through, and the rest of the division surged.
The Royals are further behind right now than they should be. They mixed too many bad decisions with some bad luck in losing 207 games the last two seasons.
They objectively improved in 2020, but with an imbalanced schedule that amplified a team’s standing within its own division the Royals have been in last place for all but two of the last 49 days.
That’s a lot to think about this offseason, beginning in two weeks, when they and the Tigers (whose farm system is generally ranked higher) watch the rest of the AL Central compete in the postseason with players who will be around for years.