Mellinger Minutes: love letter to sports, Chiefs look *really* good, Royals improvement
This hasn’t made a column or the podcast or anything else yet, because there’s just been so dang much going on, but in the moments before the Chiefs and Texans kicked off the NFL season last week I looked out from the press box at an NFL stadium with two good teams and thousands of excited fans and felt some wild combination of emotions.
Pride. Joy. Happiness. Uncertainty. Excitement.
Humans have a remarkable ability to normalize radical events, and before we go further can we agree to not turn this into a court case about America’s handling of coronavirus?
Please?
OK, thank you. The point is that this is pretty remarkable. Cases continue to surge in many places, including some areas with teams, and the bubbles of the NBA and NHL appear to be working, MLB is moving toward the postseason, and the NFL is developing a rather fantastic record in testing.
This is no small thing. We see the problems in many places in college football, and the wide divide between those who are playing and those who aren’t.
Keeping an invisible and often undetectable-until-it’s-too-late virus from wrecking something as large and interfacing as professional sports is one step below a miracle.
The NFL deserves special recognition here. The protocols, the testing, the contact tracing. They’re a model for how to operate right now, though an admittedly difficult model to replicate because not all of us have the means of billion dollar TV contracts and the motivation to protect them.
Here it’s also worth pointing out that the NFL has completed 4.8 percent of its competitive weeks to get to the Super Bowl, and in some ways it’s only been the easiest part.
But it’s been objectively impressive to see how the NFL has operated. They’re doing this without a bubble, which would increase safety but also open potential new problems with mental health. They’re doing it with a combination of science, education, and trust.
They’re showing one side of a divided America that masks and protocols are important, and they’re showing the other side that it’s OK to live, with care.
We’re all adjusting. Kids are in school again in many places, with masks. We’re working from home, or meeting in person with distance. A lot of us had never heard of Zoom before March, and now we don’t go a day without four or five video meetings. We’re getting through, is what we’re doing.
I don’t say any of this to pretend we’re not living during a global pandemic. Of course we are. Nearly 5,000 Americans have died in the last week, and it’s hard to know sometimes exactly where the line is between living our lives and protecting them.
We’re all still guessing, is the point, but we’re doing it with more information. There’s some craziness out there, but many more acting responsibly.
Sports have been an important part of that, at least for me.
I wish we’d have done a better job addressing the virus. I wish it hadn’t been politicized. I wish we could stop acting like being asked to wear a mask to stop a deadly virus is a form of tyranny, and I wish we could stop acting like wanting to go watch a football game is reckless endangerment.
Having sports back has given me energy, uplifted my mood. That’s objectively silly. But it’s also true. Maybe it’s done the same for you.
Either way, just thought it’s worth mentioning here at the top. Thank you, sports. Love you bae.
This week’s eating recommendation is the basil fried rice at Hot Basil and the reading recommendation is Jayson Stark on the almost literally unbelievable family secret of former White Sox pitcher Richard Dotson.
Thanks to everyone who’s listened to our Mellinger Minutes For Your Ears podcast, and here is a big warm invitation to start if you haven’t already. We had some delivery issues in the beginning, but those are fixed now that we’re out from behind the paywall and free on Apple or Spotify or Stitcher or whoever you animals get your shows these days.
Reminder: if you’d like to participate in the show — and I’d love for you to do that — please call 816.234.4365 and leave your first name, where you’re calling from, and almost literally question.
Please give me a follow on Twitter and Facebook and, as always, thanks for your help and thanks for reading.
College. Can I say college? I want to say college.
The college positions looked like they suffered the most from not having a full preseason.
I understand your question refers to the NFL, and I’m not trying to avoid it. But I thought it was clean. Last week, right up until gameday, Andy Reid was among those openly curious about the level of play we’d see with a condensed practice schedule and no preseason games.
Incomplete passes?
Timing off?
More injuries?
Big plays caused by lack of communication, or rhythm?
We can find specific pieces of evidence to fit any point we want to make, surely. Tom Brady had to learn a new system for the first time since his rookie year — not entirely new, of course; the Bucs are running some of what he did in New England — and he struggled.
How much of that was the altered offseason? How much was the Saints’ defense? How much was Brady being 43 years old with Total QBR that’s declined every season since 2016?
Flipping around to different games on Sunday* and I was specifically trying to look for instances where the altered offseason showed up and I came up empty.
* This is probably one of those questions I know the answer to, but should the Mellingers invest in Redzone? I’ve never paid for it, just because my Sundays have typically been at a Chiefs game instead of at home. Am I stupid for even asking?
The college games looked choppy to me, though.
Locally, that was most apparent with K-State.
They were playing at a disadvantage here anyway. Arkansas State had spring practice, and an actual game the week before against Memphis.
They were also missing nine starters from a COVID-19 outbreak, which is presumably why the line moved so much, but still. Talking strictly about rust or rhythm, Arkansas State had a distinct advantage.
And it showed.
Not as much with how Arkansas State played, though they did play well in this way, particularly hitting on the trick plays. But there were more than a few big plays K-State missed, especially in the passing game.
Skylar Thompson could’ve been protected better by the line, but he missed by half a second or a few inches on some passes that he probably feels like he’ll hit later in the season.
That’s not an excuse. You need to win games at home when you’re favored by two touchdowns.
But I did think that showed up a bit.
The Texans are a good candidate for regression. You can make that case. They’ve underperformed their talent on both sides. JJ Watt is 31 years old and has played one full season since 2015. DeAndre Hopkins is grateful to be Arizona. Bill O’Brien.
But to me, the Texans have to be expected as a playoff team. The division is potentially pretty good, and the Texans have a fairly brutal schedule — they go Ravens, Steelers, Vikings, Jaguars, Titans, Packers now — but if you have Deshaun Watson surrounded by skill position talent you should be able to score some points.
Maybe we should agree on what we saw Thursday.
I didn’t see a dominant performance, particularly late, which might prove to be an indicator because of what is now a mess at cornerback. Bashaud Breeland’s suspension is three more games, and we don’t know how long Charvarius Ward’s hand will take to heal.
That is, potentially, a big problem, even with L’Jarius Sneed having a strong debut.
A year ago, the Chiefs finished 25th in Pro Football Focus’ ratings, 14th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and seventh in points surrendered.
That’s fairly telling — you can make them out to be whatever you want, basically.
There’s a convincing case to be made that the defense will be better than last year. If you’re into such things, I posted some videos of Frank Clark’s get-off from Thursday, which appeared quicker and more effective than at any point last season:
Willie Gay Jr. didn’t play much on defense on Thursday, which was at least a mild surprise because he seemed to be progressing nicely throughout training camp.
Dorian O’Daniel essentially filled the role I expected from Gay Jr., including with s sack of Watson. It was a nice combination of smarts and talent — O’Daniel looked to be the spy on Watson, recognized that the linemen weren’t watching him, and shot the gap to make the sack.
The Chiefs have enough talent up front that we should expect a more consistent pass rush, especially if the offense gives them leads. The depth at corner is going to be challenged here early, and that’s worth watching, and the Chiefs struggles against the run continued.
Overall, though, this had the look of a top-half defense, at least for me.
And if you give that offense a top-half defense we may start wondering what a virtual parade would look like.
I love this question for lots of reasons. Very nice balance between sarcasm and real. Take a bow, Kyle.
But aren’t we all on the same page with Mahomes and Reid?
Reid’s track record is established. We know what he’s done with Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick. Alex Smith played (by far) the best of his career with Reid. Small sample size and all that but Matt Moore completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 659 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.
We know quarterbacks are better with Reid than they are without.
We know that quarterbacks who can throw to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are better than quarterbacks who can’t.
We also know Mahomes is different. We know his combination of arm talent and agility is rare, and that the combination of his intelligence and diligence essentially makes him a unicorn.
Mahomes is set up for success, but he also saves plays when they’re broken, and creates yards that don’t reasonably appear to be there.
One of the hidden strengths with Mahomes is his decision making. The gunslinger thing was easy to say on him, especially out of the draft, because he attempted (and completed) some wild throws.
But not a lot of people recognized that his interception rate was in line or even below the quarterbacks he was being compared to. Big 12 defenses generally stink, yes, but he was also being asked to floor it on every possession. He was, by design, making riskier throws than most.
This is a fun stat. Since 2018, Mahomes has the sixth-lowest interception rate (1.55 percent) among the 33 quarterbacks to make at least 16 starts.
He’s behind Aaron Rodgers (0.5), Drew Brees (1.00), Russell Wilson (1.23), Lamar Jackson (1.51), and Carson Wentz (1.52). He is, basically, a rounding error from being fourth.
He’s ahead of, among others, Kirk Cousins (1.58), Dak Prescott (1.64), Tom Brady (1.72), Matt Ryan (1.72), Deshaun Watson (2.13) and Ben Roethlisberger (2.31).
He also ranks first in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt and touchdowns. He’s second (Jackson) in touchdown percentage.
You’re essentially getting all the benefits of a gunslinger, except with Alex Smith’s care of the ball.
We have 20 years of Reid and a lifetime of watching football to know that kind of thing can’t be taught to anyone.
Think about it like this.
Forced to choose, would you rather trade Andy Reid for Jeff Fisher or Patrick Mahomes for Jared Goff?
Yes.
I wonder if we’re seeing the most aggressive erosion of the NFL’s middle class yet.
Because, you’re right, we’re seeing some really big contracts here, and not just for quarterbacks — DeAndre Hopkins, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Cooper Krupp, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Yannick Ngakoue, Joey Bosa, Jalen Ramsey, Chris Jones, Cameron Heyward, and those are just the guys I can think of off the top of my head.
There will likely be a $30 to $40 million gap between what NFL teams thought the 2021 cap would be before COVID-19 and reality.
Teams can be creative — the Chiefs more than most — but at some point the numbers can’t be manipulated.
There will always be a market for stars. They’re hard to find, and can be harder to replace. Rookie contracts are set.
That means the middle class is going to have to pay the difference.
Specific to the Chiefs, the best example might be Charvarius Ward. He’s scheduled to be a restricted free agent after this season. For our purposes here, let’s assume that he repeats a strong 2019 — not better, not worse.
Well, Kendall Fuller signed for four years and $40 million ($23.5 million in guarantees) early this offseason. Desmond Trufant signed for two years and $20 million ($13 million guaranteed). Steven Nelson signed for three years and $25.5 million ($7.5 million guaranteed) before last season.
In normal times, my guess is that Ward would be in line for something like Fuller’s deal, maybe better.
Now? With a shrunken cap being taken up more and more by (deserving) stars?
Maybe the best Ward could do on the open market would be closer to Nelson’s low guarantee, or even Bashaud Breeland’s one year, $3 million deal (incentives could push it to $4.5 million).
There just isn’t as much room.
The columns would be the same.
But let’s just say some of my Twitter and email responses might be a bit different.
Maybe?
When you use the emerging rushing game as the qualifier I assume we’re talking about statistics here.
But the Ravens run the ball a lot, too. Even if you take out Jackson’s runs. The Ravens gave 393 carries to their running backs last year. That was as much or more than 11 NFL teams ran the ball in total, including quarterback scrambles, jet sweeps, called quarterback runs, everything.
Jackson still led the league in touchdown passes, touchdown pass percentage, and QBR. He was the deserved league MVP.
But at least some of his production came because opponents could not focus on one thing. The Ravens ran the ball effectively, both with Jackson and their running backs.
Small sample size and all that, but what we saw last week was an improved Chiefs offensive line and a particularly improved running back. Damian Williams is a good back, but the Chiefs have not had someone capable of what Edwards-Helaire did on Thursday since Kareem Hunt.
Maybe that means Mahomes doesn’t have to go all And-1 mixtape and end up with 5,000 yards passing again, but it also could mean his completion percentage is higher, his interceptions lower, his efficiency improved.
If Mahomes didn’t exist in 2018, the league MVP would’ve been Drew Brees, who had Alvin Kamara, who went for 1,592 total yards and 18 touchdowns.
Edwards-Helaire is more similar to Kamara with the receiving threat, so his presence could be viewed as a positive for Mahomes, and not a negative.
Edwards-Helaire is a star, but he is also not the biggest star on this Chiefs offense, or even in this Chiefs backfield. That will always be Mahomes. Reid calls a lot of pass plays, even when he has a star running back.
The game goes through Mahomes, in other words, whose production will be boosted by Reid’s structure and the talents of Hill, Kelce and Edwards-Helaire, as well as the cumulative effect of all this stress put on defenses.
Would it surprise anyone, then, if Mahomes completed something like 68 percent of his passes for 40 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and 4,300 yards?
Guys have won MVPs with lesser seasons than that.
I’ll be honest: one week in a weird, sometimes hallow, absurdly shortened season should not matter much.
Also, I’ll be honest: it sure does feel like the Royals’ last week or so does matter.
They needed something positive. The last week has been almost nothing but positive.
Here’s the Royals’ last time through the order:
Danny Duffy vs. Indians: 5 2/3 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 4 K.
Brady Singer vs. Indians: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K.
Kris Bubic vs. Pirates: 5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K.
Carlos Hernandez vs. Pirates: 3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 2 K.
Brad Keller vs. Pirates: 9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K.
All except Duffy are 25 or younger, and under club control through at least 2024.
That’ll play.
There’s more to it, though. The Royals have more starters coming, including Asa Lacy, who many believe is the best of any of them.
This is where a disproportionate amount of the Royals’ future has been wagered. They need to be right on these guys, and they need to be right on enough hitters to make it matter.
There is absolutely hope for the near future. The Royals should expect to be competitive next year, and contenders after that. If that doesn’t happen, some difficult conversations are going to be had.
The trick is that the AL Central, which used to be sort of a cheat code, is now a bad place to be a rebuilding baseball team. The White Sox have the American League’s best record. The Twins are a game behind. The Indians can’t walk to the bathroom without tripping over some young pitching stud, and the Tigers have some high-end talent of their own.
This group is going to have to believe in results that haven’t yet come, and it’s going to have to benefit from the presumed stability provided by good and deep rotations. That can be one of those subtle mental advantages this front office has always pursued: tough losses are easier to move past when you believe in the next day’s starter, for instance.
Now, the other Royals question on a lot of minds...
Here’s a fun thing you can do with MLB’s new Film Room: create an Adalberto Mondesi highlight reel from his first two weeks of September:
I didn’t include his eight stolen bases this month.
You get talent like that on your team, you give it every chance you can.
Look, I don’t know what to believe. He’s obviously seeing it well right now, but it’s also true that even during his nine-game hit streak he struck out 14 times and walked just three. He is, according to FanGraphs, one of the game’s worst fastball hitters and the worst curveball hitter.
It’s hard to imagine a future of stardom that doesn’t also include a future of better plate discipline, and it’s hard to find a lot of examples of guys who developed great plate discipline this far into their career.
So, yeah.
My guess is that Mondesi’s future is a lot better than his last two seasons, but that it’s also not as good as the expectations many had on him. The scenario the Royals would sign up for today is one in which he vaguely resembles 2018, even if it doesn’t get better: .276/.306/.498, with 13 doubles, 14 homers, 32 steals, 11 walks and 77 strikeouts in 75 games.
But you can make a case that he’s going to soar, or crash. He appears to struggle with confidence. The Royals don’t say that publicly (and they shouldn’t) but that’s what I see. Maybe you see it too. The body language. The slumps. The occasional lack of focus. The dots are there to be connected.
If he gets beyond that — if he starts to believe what so many around him believe — then maybe he’s a 25-homer, 50-stolen base switch-hitting shortstop with above average defense.
That qualifies as stardom.
But if he doesn’t (and soon) the doubts will add up. The stack will grow. And at some point, maybe the climb is too much.
I want to add one point here. Mike Matheny pushed Mondesi up in the order, from eighth to second, after his first home run of the season on Sept. 7. I wondered if that was a mistake. At that point, Mondesi had six hits in his last four games, but I wondered if moving up so far up and so quickly would mess with what was building.
The Royals have been aggressive with Mondesi from the very beginning, and here we are, so I’ve wondered if they should let him hide a bit. Let him develop more of a track record, more of a belief, before force-feeding him so high.
Looks like the right decision so far.
Because, my gosh. When he’s going like this he’s fun to watch and easy to believe in.
Not really.
I guess I don’t know what we should define as a moderate demonstration compared to radical or soft or whatever adjective you want to use.
One that would fit what the Chiefs did before Thursday’s game: unprecedented.
The country is so divided right now — laughably so, to the point that kneeling for the anthem is a political stance, but standing for it isn’t — that I’m not sure how productive it would’ve been to raise black-gloved fists and come out of the tunnel to some NWA or Public Enemy song.
Patrick Mahomes, Tyrann Mathieu, and Deshaun Watson were among those on the video that essentially bossed Roger Goodell into an apology and pushed the NFL toward supporting a message for social justice.
So I don’t think they’re going to be afraid of some booing.
I would also say that the booing will be taken by many players as a sign that they need to continue doing it.
Further, I would say that if what we saw on Thursday can be described as moderate then maybe we can agree that the players aren’t demanding anything extreme. They’re not trying to turn America into Cuba. They’re asking that people be treated equally.
We can have a healthy debate about how to get there, but we can’t start until we agree to listen to each other.
For far too long, the conversation hasn’t begun because it hasn’t progressed beyond the form of peaceful protest. Sitting was bad, but kneeling was disrespectful. Now standing and showing unity gets a team booed (by relatively few, but still).
We’ve got to get past this superficial and irrelevant starting point. The athletes have stayed quiet for a long time, and are now (presumably) turning off fans and decreasing future earnings to ask for a conversation.
That just doesn’t seem like a lot to ask for, but we can’t even get there if we’re still hung up on these aesthetics instead of the actual ways we can learn from each other and be better together.
It’s a good line, and going 0-3 against the Sun Belt is a heck of a point to put on a trend that’s been years in the making:
The Big 12, other than Oklahoma (kind of), stinks when compared to the rest of major college football.
The Big 12 has not won a Collage Football Playoff game. The Big 12 last won a national championship after the 2005 season, which is so long ago that Texas’ best players from that team are retired from the NFL (Vince Young last played six years ago) and Mark Mangino hadn’t even gotten KU good yet.
I don’t know what the solution is.
Honestly, I’m not sure if there is a solution.
I underestimated the effect of Texas A&M opening its state’s recruiting to the SEC, and I overestimated Texas’ ability to get its (stuff) together. Baylor has had some nice moments under multiple coaches now, but even if we assume Dave Aranda will keep that going (no sure thing) there’s a gap between current reality and Baylor being a national championship-level program.
It’s easy to feel like the Big 12 is Oklahoma trying to finesse a CFP spot, Texas holding on because its options aren’t better, and a bunch of programs trying to get to the Alamo Bowl.
Well, they survive as long as the TV contracts dictate the schools each receive tens of millions of dollars in revenue.
But we both know that’s taking your question too literally.
This made me whoa:
Kansas has won 21 games since 2010, a span that covers four head coaches (not including eight games by an interim). Seven of those wins have come against FCS schools, and just six have come in the Big 12.
It is a mind-boggling combination of awful decisions compounded by other awful decisions, low investment, some bad luck, geographic and demographic disadvantages and the shadow of the basketball program.
I do not know what the fix for that is.
I used to believe the fix could come in finding the miracle coach, even if he left after four years, because at least then you’d have a better chance at finding sustainability.
Now, I wonder why the heck a coach capable of a miracle would take this job.
Turner Gill was in over his head, Charlie Weis was a testament to the gullibility of Sheahon Zenger, David Beaty was a mouse trying to lift a pickup truck, and we can say a lot about Les Miles (and will) but for now let’s be kind and say he does not inspire confidence.
Fixing KU football requires money that can’t be raised to sign recruits who won’t come to play for a coach that has better options.
You guys, let’s not shorthand this with Coastal Carolina being a Sun Belt team.
Coastal Carolina was 2-6 in the Sun Belt last year. Coastal Carolina has gone 2-6 in the Sun Belt in each of the last three seasons since moving up from THE BIG SOUTH IN FCS.
Also, Coastal Carolina was clearly the better team in Lawrence on Saturday.
I think about it like this. At a minimum, the types of recruits KU needs to be competitive would presumably also have access to programs like K-State and Iowa State.
Why would a high school kid pick KU over those programs?
Playing time is usually the answer, but unless a recruit is convinced a critical mass of other recruits are making the same decision, why would getting squashed by Coastal Carolina as a freshman be more appealing than playing as a sophomore for a bowl team?
What a giant mess.
The answer is always win. Flags fly forever. Etc.
But it’s closer for me than I suspect it would be for most.
I suppose part of it depends on what the postseason looks like. You can make a case, if you want, that winning this year’s World Series is more difficult than a normal year. That case would highlight keeping relatively healthy from COVID-19, and surviving an extra round of the postseason.
But the nightmare scenario for MLB is very much in play: some combination of Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Clayton Kershaw, and Walker Buehler test positive before the playoffs.
They miss the games, the Dodgers lose, and some team that finished a game below .500 makes it to the World Series, where they play the Yankees, who survived their midseason crisis and got their stars healthy again only to lose Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres to positive tests.
The possibility exists for baseball’s finish to turn into a bad caricature of 2020.
In which case I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather have a team that went 162, then made it to the World Series, proving its legitimacy with some extra motivation to do better the next year.
This week, I’m particularly grateful for all this sports in our lives. There was a time it did not feel realistic, and even now there are some who believe it’s foolish. But it’s here, approved by public health officials, and it is glorious. It might be true that we have more forms of major sports on TV right now than at any point in history. Making up for lost time.
This story was originally published September 15, 2020 at 5:00 AM.