The state of the 2020 Kansas City Royals: reality approaches with hope in the distance
The Royals’ two primary problems are a lack of talent when compared to their rivals and a lack of knowledge on how to win when compared to playoff competitors.
Let that sink in. It’s something less than awesome.
The truth is harsh, but it is also the truth, and even with less than two full weeks of baseball having been played, Royals officials must be honest about what they have and what they don’t.
General manager Dayton Moore, along with many others around the game, traditionally sees a season’s 40-game mark as the point at which a team’s identity and potential can begin to show.
This year, the 162-game season’s 40-game equivalent is 15, which for the Royals will be Friday, which means the judgments are being expedited even without the same level of information. Not coincidentally, team executives and scouts are meeting this week to discuss the state of the 2020 team.
Also not coincidentally: The trade deadline will be just 25 days away.
The Royals’ 2020 playoff chances were always based more on hope than realism. Hope is not a strategy, and even as a dismal record leaves them looking up at a spot in the expanded postseason, team officials are clear-minded here.
That means they will be open for trade business this month.
That means they see both the foundation and holes for a potential contender, perhaps as early as next season but more likely 2022.
Lets do those in order.
The Royals’ most obvious trade pieces are Danny Duffy, Trevor Rosenthal, Ian Kennedy and Greg Holland. Duffy is the team’s most proven starter and would help the rotation of many contenders.
Rosenthal, Kennedy and Holland are each impending free agents, and contenders can always use bullpen help.
Moore’s front office has often put higher prices on trades than other teams have been willing to meet (including with Duffy) in the past and the general belief around the sport is that the return from buyers will be lower this year. So nothing is certain.
But Duffy has the highest value of any player the Royals would likely to consider trading, and would clear $15.5 million from next year’s payroll (if there’s a full season).
Duffy is unfailingly loyal to the Royals, and the Royals are perhaps baseball’s most loyal team. That’s been their identity, prioritizing homegrown players and a culture they believe played a major part in their 2015 world championship.
Also worth noting: rosters won’t expand at the end of this season, so trading too many relievers could make it difficult for manager Mike Matheny to protect his young starting pitchers. That would factor into the organization’s thinking, even if it seems a small thing on the surface.
But, notably, owner John Sherman has directed the front office to sustainable success, rather than the (inherited) valley and (thrilling) peak and (ugh) valley again that’s defined Moore’s time in charge. That may mean lower peaks and higher valleys, but either way it means a more transactional approach to personnel decisions.
The recent trade of lefty Tim Hill (an organizational favorite) for Franchy Cordero and Ronald Bolaños could be the clearest example of that altered approach.
In most years, the Royals would be looking for young pitching or international signing money to anchor the return. But if teams are less willing to part with specific prospects, and with international money barred from trades this year, the Royals might have to get creative or abstain from trades.
Either way, this is looking more and more like a (truncated) developmental season.
The positive is that the shorter schedule limits the Royals’ exposure to push their young starters too hard and (just being honest here) more losing would bring another needed high pick in next year’s draft.
The negative is less time to develop young players. That’s particularly true with hitters, who need those live game reps, and particularly true with the Royals since their draft prioritization on arms leaves a smaller margin for error in developing position players.
The early returns on the pitchers are overwhelmingly positive. Brady Singer was a big-leaguer from his first pitch. Kris Bubic is intensely competitive, with lots of deception, and still just 22. Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, Austin Cox and others are giving team officials reasons for optimism. Asa Lacy is likely better than all of them.
The hitters need to keep coming. Whit Merrifield, Sal Perez, and Jorge Soler are each clearly good enough for a championship team. Adalberto Mondesi is in that group, too, but needs to find another gear to approach his potential. Bobby Witt Jr., Hunter Dozier, Nicky Lopez, Kyle Isbell, Khalil Lee and others are in varying stages of establishing their place.
A sober comparison to this group and the one that earned the 2015 parade would show today’s pitching prospects superior, and the hitting prospects inferior. The biggest difference — and this is particularly significant with the organization’s philosophy — is what we talked about in the first line of this column:
They don’t know how to win.
The group headlined by Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Perez needed to learn how to win in the big leagues, but they arrived with more team success in the minors and a more palpable competitiveness often illustrated in emotional celebrations and that sometimes left opponents angry.
A small — and, if we’re honest, often compelling — price.
Generally speaking, club officials believe the collective competitiveness will come with more individual confidence, and that the strong starting pitching will provide more stability as the group attempts its rise. A tough loss is easier to move past when the next day’s pitcher is strong, for instance.
But that’s tomorrow stuff.
The Royals must deal with today, and at least so far, the 2020 season is exposing many more flaws than strengths.
The club will churn the bottom of the roster more than it has in the past, looking for low-risk high-reward ways to supplement the homegrown centerpieces, but for the most part this the first wave of the group that will either drag the Royals back to the postseason or make 2014 and 2015 look more and more like a mirage in a desert.
The warnings about small sample sizes are justified, but so far this season is showing the Royals will not pass through a loophole and into the 2020 postseason. They’ll need to earn their success, same as they did before.
This is the group that will do it, or not. Club officials still believe. They also believe much work remains.
This story was originally published August 6, 2020 at 5:00 AM.