The Chiefs’ (good) Chris Jones problem and what KC can do about it this offseason
Chris Jones wants to stay with the Chiefs, who want Chris Jones to stay in Kansas City.
The NFL’s salary cap and the financial realities of building a roster will likely keep Jones from staying with the Chiefs.
That’s the opinion of Joel Corry, a contracts expert and former NFL agent.
“Can you really afford two $20 million pass rushers and a $40 million quarterback long term?” he said. “That’s tough.”
It’s not what Chiefs fans want to hear, but the likeliest outcome for Jones this offseason is a franchise tag (a contract worth $15.5 million in 2020) and a trade. That’s not just from Corry, but from an agent and two other league personnel men who responded to messages about the Chiefs’ second most pressing issue in the wake of a Super Bowl championship.
Patrick Mahomes will be paid. He’ll be paid a lot. Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt has presented a 12 to 15 month timeline on an extension with Mahomes, but NFL mechanisms mean the price goes up with every day that passes.
Mahomes’ extension will make him the highest paid player in league history, and almost certainly break records for total guarantees. Mahomes’ agent, Chris Cabott, and the Chiefs aren’t speaking publicly about the potential deal but Corry said he wouldn’t consider any offer for more than four years, or less than $40 million annually, $100 million guaranteed at signing and $125 million fully guaranteed.
Any extension for Mahomes would begin in the 2022 season, because two more years exist on his rookie contract — $5.2 million for 2020 and roughly $25 million in 2021. A new deal would, however, include a signing bonus that would impact the 2020 salary cap. That is why this comes up with Jones.
“We’re going to run out of money eventually,” Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said while discussing the offseason generally. “That’s another good problem to have, right?”
The Chiefs are expected to have around or slightly more than $20 million in cap space for 2020. They can expand that some by cutting Sammy Watkins ($14 million in savings) and other housekeeping moves, but Veach is right — at some point the Chiefs will run out of money.
In addition to Jones, free agents or players eligible for extensions include Bashaud Breeland, Kendall Fuller, Charvarius Ward, Stefan Wisniewski, Xavier Williams, Emmanuel Ogbah, Reggie Ragland, Anthony Sherman, Mike Pennel and Demarcus Robinson.
Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett might be a good starting point for Jones’ next deal. He signed a $15.2 million franchise tag last April and then agreed to a four-year, $68 million deal with $42.5 million in guarantees.
Salaries always go up, so Jones’ value would be closer to four years and $80 million with $50 million in guarantees.
Last offseason the Chiefs traded draft picks for Frank Clark, and then signed him to a five-year contract worth $105.5 million and $63.5 million guaranteed.
Jones’ agent, Michael Katz, declined to speak on the negotiation but Jones is undoubtedly sincere in wanting to stay in Kansas City. Still, in NFL circles, that’s read with an unspoken caveat: at the right price.
There is no reason to believe Jones will sign for less than his full value.
“One thing I wouldn’t discount being a real and major problem, because I used to deal with it all the time with clients: you paid an outsider before you paid Chris Jones,” Corry said. “He and his agent may have a long memory about that: ‘Why did they go pay this guy when I’ve been here from day one?’ So if you think he’s going to take any kind of hometown discount you can forget that.”
All of that and we have yet to mention that once the 49ers pay George Kittle or the Eagles give Zach Ertz another extension the tight end market will be reset and Travis Kelce will want a new deal.
This is the cost of success. Figuring out how to pay good players is a better problem to have than trying to find good players, but it’s still a problem, and you can see why many in the sport expect Jones to be on a different team next season.
The Chiefs’ decision may come down to this: after almost certainly giving Jones a franchise tag for 2020, do they trade him for multiple high-round draft picks?
If they keep him, Jones would likely sit out most or all of training camp. He might even miss a game or two, though that would mean a significant financial loss.
Using the tag to keep Jones would maintain stability on defense, but risk the second year of a contract dispute turning counterproductive. Also importantly, if they could not reach a long-term deal next offseason they would receive less in a trade than they would now.
The Chiefs have experience on both sides here. Last year, they tagged outside linebacker Dee Ford and traded him to the 49ers for a 2020 second-round pick. To trade for Clark, they gave up their 2019 first-round pick, a 2020 second-round pick, and swapped third-round picks.
Corry thought that Jones’ return in a trade would be somewhere in between that of Clark and Ford. Doing the deal would be a difficult but likely prudent decision for the Chiefs.
They’ve worked diligently to accumulate depth along the defensive line, and could potentially package picks to move higher in the first-round for another pass rusher.
With Mahomes transitioning to the league’s highest player this is the front office’s most important purpose — to be financially prudent, and ensure enough production from players on rookie deals to keep the roster at a championship level.
The Chiefs gambled last offseason, choosing to keep Jones on a relatively small salary to bolster the defense in other ways. It paid off spectacularly, with Jones finishing as Pro Football Focus’ No. 5 interior defensive lineman and playing the best of anyone on defense in the Super Bowl win.
But now comes the bill. Jones earned his payday, and may have played himself above the price range the Chiefs can functionally afford. Jones is among the players the Chiefs likely could not have won the Super Bowl without.
Now the Chiefs front office might need to make sure the haul he commands in a trade can be part of the next Super Bowl push.