Win or lose Super Bowl LIV, this Chiefs offseason will shape their future for years
Godspeed if you ever find yourself negotiating a contract with someone who possesses the leverage of Patrick Mahomes or Chris Jones.
The bidding starts with their current salaries octupling (that’s multiplying by eight, and find someone else who worked that word into a Super Bowl column this week) and goes up from there.
Each Chiefs star has been a model professional. Mahomes has been the league’s best quarterback since becoming a starter and an unwavering leader adored by teammates and coaches in Kansas City. He will soon sign the biggest contract in league history.
Jones pushed for a contract extension last summer and, when that didn’t work, reported to training camp on time even with precedent existing for a holdout. He led the Chiefs in sacks while playing around two injuries, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ No. 6-rated interior defensive lineman.
Mahomes is eligible for an extension for the first time. Jones is likely to sign an extension, receive the franchise tag, or perhaps be traded. Neither player has generated even a drip of drama about one the biggest moments of their respective families’ lives.
“I didn’t want to make a media frenzy on the contract,” Jones said. “It will all handle itself. I’ll deal with it after the season and hopefully I’m a Chief for life.”
The deserved raises will be a severe challenge to the Chiefs’ salary cap, and even as it must be said that this is one of them good problems, well, eventually it will be a problem.
Not just Mahomes and Jones, either. Travis Kelce will almost certainly want a (deserved) raise. Charvarius Ward has earned one, too, though the sides could wait a year. Fellow defensive backs Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller have been important parts of a much-improved pass defense. Both will be free agents. Same with Mike Pennel, an important part of the run defense, as well as Demarcus Robinson, Anthony Sherman, Emmanuel Ogbah and others.
Regardless of what happens in Super Bowl LIV the Chiefs are relatively well positioned to keep this championship window open. But even with the salary cap set to increase by $8 million to $13 million next season, the Chiefs’ space is expected to be around or slightly more than $20 million.
That can be increased with certain moves (more on that in a minute), but Jones’ franchise tag as a defensive tackle would be $15.5 million. There goes most of that space.
Success comes with a price.
“Kind of a double-edged sword,” Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said. “We’re going to have a lot of people want to be here, but we’re going to run out of money eventually. That’s another good problem to have, right?”
Preparation for an offseason begins months before the final game, so the Chiefs’ front office has what can be vaguely described as three or four divergent plans for how this will work.
No decision is made in a vacuum, which means the Chiefs’ offseason — their follow-up to this Super Bowl run — will be a series of micro-decisions, each informing the next.
Mahomes is the biggest, obviously. Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt kept open a timeline of 12 to 15 months on the contract extension (technically the Chiefs could push it even further with the franchise tag).
That left the impression to some that the Chiefs are open to pushing this into next offseason, but the likeliest outcome is an extension in the next few months. The timing could depend on other players’ deals with their own teams — Deshaun Watson, for instance — but it is justifiably the KC front office’s top priority.
Jones’ situation is sort of 1b on the priority list, and this is where the Chiefs’ offseason takes on a Choose Your Own Adventure path. The sincere wish on both sides is for a long-term extension. For Jones it’s the only certain football play and the most direct path to generational wealth; for the Chiefs it’s retaining an elite pass rusher and could include a structure that would maximize short-term flexibility.
But their talks never gained traction a year ago, and both sides need to be prepared for that possibility again. The Chiefs would weigh trade offers; Jones would gauge his leverage in an extended holdout. Neither outcome is ideal for either side.
After that, Kelce is in line for a new extension and raise. The superstar tight end’s current deal calls for a $11.2 million cap hit next season.
The Chiefs will have ways to create room. Receiver Sammy Watkins can be cut for a $14 million cap savings, or signed to a renegotiated contract. Reserve quarterback Chad Henne was a $4.1 million cap hit this year, and running back LeSean McCoy $3 million. Corner Morris Claiborne, linebacker Darron Lee, defensive lineman Xavier Williams, safety Jordan Lucas and Breeland each also counted $2 million or more on the cap this season.
All teams also have what executives sometimes call “money hidden under rocks” — existing contracts that can be renegotiated relatively simply to create immediate cap space.
When the Chiefs get to this point of their offseason they will be several steps into one of those pre-set game plans, or (more likely) borrowing pieces from several of them.
The Chiefs are, in many ways, the envy of much of the rest of the league. They have an elite quarterback surrounded by plenty of other stars and a culture and coaching staff that makes the whole greater than the sum of their parts.
That will continue to be true into the future, regardless of this Super Bowl’s outcome, but for the first time the NFL’s financial realities will tangibly affect the roster. The Chiefs’ front office is well-positioned, but difficult decisions will be required.
The effectiveness of those choices will largely determine whether, how quickly, and how often the Chiefs return to the Super Bowl.
This story was originally published February 2, 2020 at 4:00 AM.