The Chiefs’ potential playoff flaw: what it is, what it isn’t and how to fix it
Criticizing the Chiefs’ offense is a little like criticizing the sand on the beach. Maybe it’s not perfect, and maybe there are parts you’d prefer to avoid, but it’s still better than most other places you could be.
The Chiefs aren’t quite as prolific as they were a year ago, and that inherent comparison has controlled the discussion. First it was injuries, then man defense, always something, but even through all that they remain fourth in points, fifth in yards, third in yards per play and third in DVOA.
So they’re still really good, but really good isn’t enough for a Super Bowl chase, and this is all said as an entry into a conversation about their red-zone offense .... and that’s when Laurent Duvernay-Tardif interrupted.
“I thought your question would be, ‘What can you do to be even better?’ ” Duvernay-Tardif said. “And that’s what I would’ve said, for sure.”
If the measure of the 2019 Chiefs is whether they reach the Super Bowl — spoiler alert: it is — then part of the discussion should be about defining their likeliest roadblocks.
So, here, with all due respect to a vulnerable run defense, we find a new potential fatal flaw for the Chiefs’ upcoming postseason:
A red-zone offense that’s gone limp.
Some numbers: The Chiefs have already scored more touchdowns from outside the red zone than they did all of last season. In fact, even with injuries to Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill and others, the Chiefs have scored more touchdowns from the 20-yard line or farther out than any other team in the league.
It’s when they get close that they’re struggling. A year ago, they scored touchdowns on 71.8 percent of their red-zone attempts. That ranked second in the league. This season, they’re at 51.1 percent, which ranks 24th in the league.
That’s the equivalent of nine fewer touchdowns, or 2.6 points per game.
Taking into account nothing else — injuries, schedule, an improved defense keeping the Chiefs from Pac-12 After Dark shootouts — 35 percent of the difference in scoring between last year and this year is found in diminished efficiency near the goal line.
And not for the reason you might suspect, either.
Penalties aren’t the problem
We’re all friends here, so I can admit that the research for this column began with the idea of proving a hypothesis: that this was mostly the run game’s fault.
One thing is obvious. Any talk of penalties being the problem is nonsense. The Chiefs have been called for just three penalties with the ball in the red zone, and all three were either declined or offset. The Chiefs have actually benefited from penalties in the red zone — their opponents have been whistled 12 times, including a few that led directly to touchdowns.
So it’s not penalties.
But it’s not the run game, either.
Did you know that Patrick Mahomes has completed just 50 percent of his passes in the red zone? That his touchdown rate there is below both the league average and quarterback emissaries such as Daniel Jones, Mitchell Trubisky, Case Keenum and Marcus Mariota?
Success rate accounts for down and distance — whether a play gets 40 percent of the yardage needed on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth. The Chiefs have a 47 percent success rate on runs in the red zone, and just 35 percent on passes, according to Football Outsiders.
They’re above average on runs, and 28th on passes.
So, forget the theory that the Chiefs’ struggle to run the ball with power is the culprit. This is actually rooted more in the passing game.
There are reasons for that. The Chiefs have a tremendous advantage with the skill and speed of their playmakers, and Andy Reid is effective in using those edges to put defenses in bad spots. Once the field shrinks, so does that advantage.
A year ago, the Chiefs made up for this in many ways, including misdirections with some creative shovel passes.
They’ve done some of that this year, most memorably at New England when Travis Kelce took a direct snap on a zone-read play. He kept the ball and scored.
But they haven’t been quite as efficient or prolific in using those plays this year. That’s part of it. More, though, is execution.
That can be a vague term, a cliche, and indeed it’s packed with nuance. The Chiefs scored a red-zone touchdown against the Ravens with a screen call that faked to the right and then went left to LeSean McCoy. They scored in the same game on a unicorn throw by Mahomes before Demarcus Robinson’s break toward the sideline, a play finished with a one-hand catch. They scored against the Texans when Mahomes scrambled away from pressure, pressing the defense long enough for Hill to break open.
Those plays just haven’t happened as often as they did last year, and in particular they haven’t happened recently.
We saw a couple examples in the Broncos game. On a third-and-goal from the 5, the line held up well enough as the Broncos rushed four. Mahomes’ internal clock told him to throw after about 5 seconds, but a rusher was in his preferred passing lane and Mahomes scrambled. Had he waited just another half-second, he may have seen Kelce open near the back of the end zone.
To be sure, it would have been a great play by Mahomes, but for a quarterback of his talent it would not have been an unusual one. For a team built like the Chiefs, it’s a play he needs to make in the playoffs.
Another missed opportunity came on a play that Austin Reiter brought up after the game — “that one pissed me off,” he said. It was third-and-goal from the 6, and the Chiefs lined up four receivers and sent running back Spencer Ware into the flat, leaving the line alone to protect a four-man rush.
The Broncos executed a stunt well, challenging Reiter and Tardif. Reiter didn’t see the rusher looping around until it was too late, forcing Mahomes to scramble to his right.
Again, with just a beat more Mahomes could have had Kelce in the end zone. Once Mahomes was forced to scramble, the throw was somewhere between impossible and inadvisably risky.
The Chiefs did score one touchdown in four red-zone attempts. It came on, basically, a rub route. Robinson lined up wide to the left, with Hill in the slot. They crossed, and Robinson executed his assignment perfectly — getting in the way of Hill’s defender, but not touching him.
The Broncos didn’t switch, and the touchdown was relatively easy.
These are small things, and football is hard, but these are examples of the differences between touchdowns (like last year) and field goals.
In the playoffs, that could be the difference between advancing and fishing.
OK, now for some optimism
The good thing for the Chiefs is that the problems should be correctable. This is not a matter of poor talent, and it’s not a matter of bad coaching.
It’s execution — a half-second of timing by the receiver, or the quarterback bailing the pocket too soon, or a lineman missing a stunt.
If you’re an optimist, there are reasons to believe the Chiefs will be better. Because if the problems are about timing and execution, it’s worth emphasizing that the Chiefs have basically had two or three games with all of their core starters on offense.
No insults intended to the Next Man Up mantra or the men who were next, but the numbers include snaps with Matt Moore dropping back with Cam Erving at left tackle. Reid’s offense has always been about timing, and it would be logical that timing is the last thing to come back fully.
One thing two Chiefs sources brought up on their own in separate conversations: Ware should help. He’s big and strong between the tackles, and he’s instantly the Chiefs’ best blocking back.
The above clips aside, Mahomes was much sturdier in the pocket overall against the Broncos and the Chiefs’ last three games are among their six highest-graded pass-blocking performances of the season, according to Pro Football Focus.
Those indicators are positive, but the results need to catch up. The Chiefs’ defense is improved enough that they shouldn’t need quite as much from their offense, but in the games that will determine whether this season is a success, they’ll need more than they’ve had so far.
Especially in the red zone.