Some troubling stumbling blocks have emerged on Chiefs’ road to a potential Super Bowl
The duties of being a sports columnist and the joys of being a sports fan include having a take, no matter what, but first a truth about these Chiefs in this particular moment that hangs above all:
This ain’t it.
The Chiefs believe they are Super Bowl contenders, and in theory they are, but if they played the season with only the guys healthy enough to play in a 31-24 loss to the Green Bay Packers at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday night, only their mothers would take them seriously as Super Bowl contenders.
There is one takeaway unaffected by injuries, and it’s not positive. We’ll get to that in a minute. But, truly, this injury thing cannot be overstated. The 2019 Chiefs’ most important player is a transformative quarterback, and on Sunday they used their third-stringer who was coaching his old high school two months ago.
The entire left side of the offensive line is injured. Same with their two best pass rushers, and their third-best got hurt, too. Their No. 1 cornerback was also hurt, and another starter left the game.
Next Man Up is a cute rallying cry, but at some point it’s like trying to move a chair with mind control.
We bring all this up not as a dismissal of a third consecutive home loss. The Chiefs remain two wins ahead in the AFC West but looking up in the standings at a first-round bye — the Patriots, Bills, Ravens, Colts and Texans are each ahead of the Chiefs, or even but owning the tiebreaker.
We bring up the injuries as one part explanation and three parts shoulder shrug.
It’s just hard to know what to take from this game. With only Mahomes healthy this might’ve been a win. With Mahomes and a few other injured starters back the Chiefs are closer to Super Bowl contenders.
Even with the injuries, the Chiefs’ defense played well enough to provide a chance. LeSean McCoy’s fumble set up a magic-trick touchdown pass by Aaron Rodgers, and Andy Reid was far too conservative with fourth-down decisions.
But, anyway, enough of the setup.
Here’s the takeaway unaffected by injuries: The linebackers aren’t good enough right now and have emerged as the Chiefs’ likeliest fatal flaw.
The offense will be good enough to be dangerous anywhere, at any time. The secondary has improved dramatically. It’s a physical group that appears to be growing more comfortable with new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, and he’s clearly getting a better feel about what blitzes to call and when.
The Chiefs hit Rodgers 12 times and sacked him five. Much of that came from terrific downfield coverage, but the Chiefs also created pressure with blitzes and players winning individual matchups.
In other words, the Chiefs are playing well in the back (even without Kendall Fuller) and doing enough up front (even without Chris Jones and Frank Clark) to cause problems.
And they are getting torched in the middle.
Rodgers hit all 11 of his passes for 183 yards when targeting linebackers Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson and Ben Nieman in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus.
That means he was 12 of 22 for 122 yards when targeting anyone else.
The Chiefs have been soft against the run, but they’ve also consistently struggled to cover running backs.
Packers running back Aaron Jones caught seven passes for 159 yards and two touchdowns, an exaggeration of a problem that’s existed for most of the last three seasons.
Jones gained 117 of those yards on two plays, each from five-wide formations that allowed the Packers to isolate him against linebackers.
On the first, he burned Hitchens with a double move and was wide open down the left sideline.
On the second, Jones caught a quick pass behind the line of scrimmage after motioning inside a tight end. That allowed a block to wipe out Hitchens, and Jones outran everyone straight ahead to the end zone.
These are the types of plays everyone knows the Chiefs are vulnerable against. The Patriots, in addition to all of their other strengths, remain fully capable of exploiting this weakness with James White.
This is a fluid situation. We’ve already seen the Chiefs’ defense change. This is two weeks in a row they’ve created consistent pressure with regular blitzes, and the progress of the secondary creates tough decisions for the opposing quarterback.
This has always been a group that would rely heavily on creating turnovers. They were close at least twice, with Tyrann Mathieu missing what would’ve been a tremendous interception in the back of the end zone and Bashaud Breeland coming close on another.
But if those turnovers don’t come, the Chiefs are going to need to provide resistance in other ways. They’ve figured out a way to cover and get to the quarterback, and that’s no small feat. Before the season, each of those challenges appeared substantial.
But as currently constructed, the Chiefs’ linebackers are providing a consistent path for the opposition in both big plays and sustained drives.
There are some linebackers said to be available in the right trade, but the Chiefs are running out of capital. And with some current and future contract extensions at hand, they will need the cheap labor available in the draft.
That puts a chunk of the Chiefs’ immediate future in the hands of Spagnuolo and the linebackers already in the building. When healthy, Mahomes and the offense will always have a chance.
It’s up to everyone else to make it count.
This story was originally published October 28, 2019 at 12:42 AM.