Mellinger Minutes: So this Chiefs-Colts thing is really going to happen
The ball hit the upright, and then the crossbar, and here is an incomplete list of the things out of Cody Parkey’s control that might have turned his worst professional nightmare into his best day:
- The wind shifts a little.
- Treyvon Hester doesn’t shoot his left arm to the sky and deflect the path ever so slightly.
- The Bears’ offense gets a little closer.
- Eagles coach Doug Pederson doesn’t call timeout before the first kick.
One of the many reasons football is so amazing is that at the highest level the outcomes can turn on the most frivolous detail. NFL rules dictate parity, so games swing on a kick, or a call, or a catch, or a drop.
We all know this. We’re adults, we’ve watched football. But the point was undeniably amplified in a wild card weekend. The Colts’ win over the Texans was the most convincing, but even then the outcome may have been different if a few shots downfield to DeAndre Hopkins hit, or a big fourth down at the end of the second quarter went the other way, or Deshaun Watson saw a corner cheat off his man to make an interception.
The others were closer to a coin flip. The Chargers got the benefit of a close call near the goal line, the Eagles needed a last-minute touchdown and missed field goal, and the Cowboys survived a flurry of calls and still needed some clutchiness from Dak Prescott.
Again, I don’t say any of this as a revelation. You know all this.
I don’t say any of it to make you feel better, if you’re a Chiefs fan. If anything, the unpredictability should make the next four days of waiting for your favored team in a familiar spot of failure all the more agonizing.
I only say this as a reminder. We can all get caught up in the minutiae of football. That’s part of the fun, and part what we’ll do in the rest of this time suck. But the reason most of us got to this point in our lives where we care this much is that the games are fun, and the unscripted drama intoxicating.
This is as good as (legal) entertainment gets in America, and you’re lucky enough to have a turn with your team in the middle of it. The outcome is the most important thing, but if you can take at least a moment or two and make sure it’s not the only thing. Watch with friends. Make something amazing to eat. Whatever.
This is supposed to be fun. Make sure it is.
This week’s eating recommendation is the pig wings at Rock Hill Grille, and the reading recommendation is my friend Adam Kilgore on the Bears-Eagles game. What a lede.
Please give me a follow on Facebook and Twitter, and as always, thanks for your help and thanks for reading.
The Chiefs and Royals have a parking lot in common and not much else, but it’s worth remembering that there was a time not long ago that the Royals winning playoff series felt much more unlikely than the Chiefs winning playoff games.
The Royals turned 30 years of bupkis into Kansas City’s greatest party in a generation through a group of young friends who saw their franchise’s historic failure not as an anvil but an opportunity.
They talked openly about it. They made championship memories together in the minor leagues, and saw the same thing happening in the majors as when and not if.
The sports are different. The teams are different. The personalities are different. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce did not play together in Arkansas. But I do think the Chiefs’ breakthrough is going to come with a similar attitude, and a similar feeling of a tectonic shift.
We should also pause here to point out that as many memories as the Colts and division round at Arrowhead might bring up, the metaphorical gorilla on your back isn’t going anywhere this weekend.
Beat the Colts and lose to the Patriots (or Chargers) and what have you actually done?
Put a dent in the historical failure, I suppose, but you haven’t really made it vanish.
Playoff football is amazing. The success of the sport is built on the potential significance of each play, both in turning the outcome of a game and a season. That magic is only amplified now, where a kick hitting the upright and then the crossbar can be the difference.
I’m repeating myself a little here, but it’s the whole point: sports are designed to break your heart. You have to know that once you get in. There are no guarantees, in football or in life, but if you can’t be optimistic about a home game with a generational quarterback then sports might not be for you.
I want to be as clear as possible here: The Colts offense is an awful matchup for the Chiefs’ defense.
You can make your joke about hahahaha isn’t anybody, and your joke might even be funny, but I mean it beyond the obvious. The Colts’ offensive line is one of the best in the NFL. Every stat and ranking they have should be taken in the context of a soft schedule, but their line is fourth overall by Football Outsiders, and second in pass protection.
That means they should be able to hold up against the Chiefs’ strength defensively, which is the pass rush, and if that happens you have one of the best quarterbacks in the league with time to throw against a secondary that’s given it up a lot. Colts running backs have more than 100 receptions this year, and their tight end has 66 catches and 13 touchdowns.
You don’t need much imagination to picture the Colts matriculating the ball downfield slowly and steadily. The Colts have one of the league’s best red zone offenses, too, so bend-but-don’t-break might not be the best strategy.
All that said, I am sitting here typing words into my computer that say the Chiefs’ defense will be better than you might expect.
I think they can be disruptive up front, and I believe that Charvarious Ward is an upgrade in the back. You might think I’m crazy for this, and I won’t argue, but I believe Eric Berry will play and make a positive difference. My friend Seth Keysor has pointed out that the Chiefs’ defense performs much better at home than on the road, even when accounting for quality of opponent.
Let’s be clear. I’m not predicting a dominant performance. But I do think there’s enough here that the Chiefs can hold the Colts below 30, and if that happens, you take your chances.
It includes some sacks, a few huge plays by Luck (and probably Hilton) and some moments where Marlon Mack looks unstoppable. But it also includes at least one turnover, and probably more.
Mostly, it includes at least three jaw-hits-the-keyboard plays by Patrick Mahomes. It includes a HUGE game from Travis Kelce, carving up a defense that’s been vulnerable to tight ends.
Also, it includes a loud party Saturday night, and guilt-free viewing Sunday, when the Patriots will beat the Chargers and Bill Belichick will privately grouch about having one fewer day to prepare for a road game.
They’re similar. I obviously don’t watch Luck as often or as closely as Mahomes, but he’s bigger. A little more committed to the pocket. He’s six years older, and I think that experience matters. A little better feel for when to bail, or where to step up.
Mahomes is more dynamic. Bigger arm. Quicker release. More willing to press the issue. Luck is terrifically talented, but he doesn’t have quite the velocity or distance. Mahomes is more creative. He’s better when a play doesn’t work. Never panics, always believes.
I believe Mahomes is better, but it’s not just because of how they’re different. It’s also because of how they’re similar. Mahomes had a (slightly) lower interception rate this year, his first as a starter, as Luck did in his seventh as a pro. Luck has just one season with a lower interception rate than Mahomes in his first year.
Luck is a really good athlete, enough legs to hurt you on a scramble. Mahomes has the same ability, but his default outside the pocket is to go for the throat with a throw instead of the body punch with a run.
Think about it from the other side, and you’d probably rather face Luck.
It’s wild how these things work out. When the Chiefs stunk so bad in 2012 that they picked first overall in 2013, I remember thinking how very Chiefs it was to have the first pick in what was widely believed to be the worst draft in recent memory, and the year between two incredible talents — Luck in 2012, and Jadeveon Clowney in 2014.
And if the Chiefs would have drafted Luck, they’d have been ecstatic, and a usual playoff team. But missing out on him that year was part of a long line of dominoes falling that eventually meant Mahomes.
And you would not trade quarterbacks now.
We focus a lot here on the fan side of things, and we should. I don’t write for the players or coaches, and you don’t read for them either.
And I know you’re making a joke here, but I want to emphasize a point from the most recent column:
“One of the biggest disconnects between fans and athletes is perspective. Fans obsess over history; athletes focus on execution. Fans can remember each loss in gory detail; athletes recall specific matchups.”
Those questions will be asked, and the players will range from polite to playful to dismissive, but believe me when I tell you that as impossible as it feels for us to separate history from Saturday it will have a 0.0 percent effect on how the actual game is played.
Mitchell Schwartz made the point the other day that Patrick Mahomes was in high school when the Chiefs blew 38-10 in Indianapolis after the 2013 season, but it goes even deeper than that. Chris Jones was injured against the Titans, and he is now a star. Tyreek Hill has never been this good. Dee Ford, too. Justin Houston is a different player. Darrelle Revis isn’t out there quitting anymore.
The same is true of the Colts, too, of course. They’re better than they were in 2013.
You know the history that doesn’t matter on Saturday? Peyton Manning winning a game without punts, or Lin Elliott missing field goal after field goal, or Luck scoring on a fumble that bounced off a lineman’s helmet.
You know the history that will matter on Saturday? That Patrick Mahomes exists, and that the Colts are first in record, scoring defense, point differential, and fewest sacks allowed since their 1-5 start.
Again, I suspect you’re making a joke, which is what this is all about. Chiefs fans have every reason to be terrified. That is learned behavior.
But I do hope that if you’re terrified, you remember that it has no impact on whether Patrick Mahomes makes that throw or Kendall Fuller knocks down that pass.
I don’t mean this dismissively, just honestly: I don’t think any defense is a particularly bad matchup for the Chiefs.
We haven’t seen the Chiefs against the Bears (and we won’t), but we have seen them play five games against teams that finished in the top eight in defense*.
* Ravens, Jaguars, Patriots, and Chargers twice.
In those games, the Chiefs are averaging 32.6 points and 393.6 yards. Project that over a full season, and that would rank second in points (a fraction behind the Rams) and fourth in yards.
Put another way: the Chiefs would be the highest-scoring team in the AFC if they were only allowed to play the NFL’s best eight defenses.
That’s ridiculous, you guys.
The Chiefs should score a lot of points. The Colts don’t have a great pass rush (38 sacks and the 26th pass rush according to Pro Football Focus) and they’re 20th in net yards per pass attempt.
They’re a bit Chiefsy in that they’re 29th against tight ends and 25th against running backs in the passing game, which seems like it could be a problem against Travis Kelce and Andy Reid’s play calling.
If you don’t get pressure on Mahomes, that means the field becomes bigger for him, and you just can’t cover all those skill guys for too long.
So, again. I understand the point. And, yes. There are some specific ways the Colts defense is a great matchup for the Chiefs offense.
I’m just not sure what the bad matchup for the Chiefs looks like.
Are you asking because you think the Chiefs will need it?
Sorry guys. Low blow.
With time and perspective and a year of Mahomes to think about it, I believe the whole Andy-gets-too-conservative thing is somewhere between overplayed and total hogwash.
Because has he really gone conservative this year?
The last series against the Chargers, maybe, I suppose, but that’s one possession out of 171 this year, came against one of the NFL’s best defenses, and besides, Plays Didn’t Work does not necessarily equal Conservative Playcalling.
I think what we’ve seen is that Mahomes’ talent opens a lot of the field, and expands the playbook. That’s part of the point in the weekend column — some of what looked conservative in the past was a product of a conservative quarterback with ordinary arm strength.
What we have now is a flame throwing quarterback who can throw it over them mountains.
I believe Andy Reid has waited his whole dang life for a quarterback like this. I believe Mahomes naturally makes Reid even more creative, and even more willing to take risks, because he knows the quarterback can make it all work.
I also believe that there are rather pedestrian play calls that end up with a Fran Tarkenton loopy-loop around the 49ers defense.
Well, the worst outcome surely comes with some massive injury to Mahomes that affects his 2019 season. Sort of like Carson Wentz last year, but instead of Nick Foles coming in and winning the Super Bowl anyway, the season crumbles with Chad Henne giving a valiant but ultimately un-Mahomesian performance in a 24-13 loss.
Kelce’s injury was a real factor last year, but in relative terms, the Major Injury To Star Player is an unexplored motif in the ballad of Chiefs playoff failure.
They’ve had missed kicks, clueless offense, hopeless defense, blown leads, freak plays, and bizarre penalties. That’s a pretty comprehensive list, so I’m not sure what’s left, other than perhaps a boneheaded fake punt that leads to a game-losing pick-6 or something.
Maybe a guy can twist an ankle in a sinkhole?
Or, well, you guys. We should probably just move on.
This is not just a line I came up with, it’s the truth: nobody has hired away the Chiefs offensive coordinator because the Chiefs offensive coordinator is Andy Reid.
Teams have hired away the assistant offensive coordinator, and when they do it with Bienemy — and it’s when — they’ll be doing it with a guy who has not called an NFL play.
Andy Reid’s coaching tree really is magnificent. A quarter of the league. You don’t do that unless you’re able to replace good assistants with more good assistants, and at least here in Kansas City there’s always been a ready and rather obvious Next Coach Up.
Doug Pederson goes to Philadelphia, and Matt Nagy was the clear choice. Nagy goes to Chicago, and it’s Bienemy. Whenever Bienemy is hired away — I’d expect it to be this offseason, but maybe next — it’ll almost certainly be Mike Kafka.
He played quarterback at Northwestern, was drafted by Reid in Philadelphia and spent time with six other teams before beginning his coaching career. Players and coaches have long been complimentary of his mind and manner.
He’s only 31, but the league is getting younger all the time, and others have shown that’s no longer the obstacle it may have once been.
It’s a quality of Reid’s that easy to overlook. His reputation means some of the best coaching candidates in the sport want to work for him.
I’ve vowed to get healthier. Weight loss, sure, I guess, but more than that just get healthier. Signed up for a half-marathon, and I haven’t really started training but I know there’s going to come a point about three weeks in where body starts to ask for more time on the couch with nachos.
That’s a crossbar. Get over it, and you can score. But many an effort has banged right off, falling dejectedly to the turf.
I have a hard time finding the right pillow. Maybe you think that’s a dumb thing to complain about, but if you do then I wish this stiff neck on you forever. Crossbar.
Work-life balance is a crossbar. You’re not really living your best life until you at least get close.
Come to think of it, at various points in my life, I’ve felt like I banged off the crossbar trying to make friends, asking a girl out, learning how to cook, and trying to learn Spanish, and at this point we’re only up to about my 19th birthday.
Dad crossbars include but are not limited to: plastic toy assembly, bedtime, questions you can’t answer and aren’t close enough to your phone to slyly Google, and Legos that are diabolically placed exactly where you want to walk barefoot.
We have all been Cody Parkey at one point or another, haven’t we?
By the way, this by Dan Wetzel is pretty good. Cool of Parkey’s teammates to react that way.
Speaking of ...
This reminds me a little of the Red Sox inviting Bill Buckner back, after years of abuse from fans and him feeling like a castoff. Bucker was cheered warmly, and it was really a pretty cool scene, but of course by then the Red Sox had won two World Series.
It’s easier to be gracious after you’ve won.
You have hopefully seen where Vahe talked with Lin Elliott for more than an hour, and if you haven’t I’d urge you to stop with this silly time suck and check it. If you care about Chiefs history, and about the complexity of this particular moment, it’s worth a read.
I want to say: this is a great idea, and I hope it happens sometime, but the Chiefs can’t do it now or else they risk making the situation even worse. Sports make us all crazy, and if the team introduced Elliott before the game and then lost they’d never hear the end of it.
The team has to win this game — both because of the round and the opponent — before you’d even think about a gesture like that. Probably have to win the next one, too.
The Red Sox had it right. Wait to be the gracious winners.
This is bad.
The way they play means they’re usually without a big margin for error, and that’s amplified with Dean Wade’s injury. When Kam Stokes isn’t available, they’re hard to watch.
You’re asking for a prediction, but I’m asking to know when Wade will be back. Without him, they look like a bubble team. Maybe. With him, they’re good enough to make a run.
They have an interesting stretch of games ahead. They need to beat West Virginia at home. A split with road games at Iowa State and Oklahoma would be welcomed, and then another favorable home game against TCU.
The Big 12 lacks great teams at the top, but there’s a glut of teams that look like mid seeds. If you get stuck in that traffic, dropping from third in the league to eighth can happen pretty quick.
One thing that’s been concerning is that nobody on the roster looks significantly improved. That’s critical in college sports. Backups replace starters, and that only works if the backups become as good as the starters.
Wade’s return won’t change that.
Before the season, I thought Wade had a chance to make #Deanwolf more than a funny hashtag, and that Barry Brown would be one of the better guards in the country. Xavier Sneed has the body and skills, but his overall game still needs to take a step.
They need to hit more shots, move the ball a little better, and rebound. Some of that will improve when Wade returns, but injuries can’t be an excuse. This was supposed to be Weber’s best team at K-State. There’s a lot more missing than just Wade.
Max is making a joke, and to be clear, Kansas remains the favorite to win the Big 12 — but man it’s a lot closer than anyone expected, right?
I won’t speak for anyone else. My expectation was that KU would win the league by two games. I thought that Texas Tech would be down, that Iowa State didn’t quite have the talent, and that K-State would be the closest competitor.
Laugh at my wrongness!
Chris Beard is a stud, and I will now just assume Tech is at worst a top 25 team until proven otherwise. Man, they defend like dogs.
Iowa State has way better players than expected. I like and respect C.J. Moore. He knows his stuff. I don’t know that I’d go as far as he did, and say Iowa State has better talent than KU, but I do think the difference is relatively small.
Kansas’ pieces are a bit of an awkward fit, at least as currently constructed. Basketball is increasingly won at the three-point line, and KU is ineffective at both hitting shots and limiting the other team’s opportunities. That’s a pretty good way to get beat, and one mismatch they could always count on is now gone with Udoka Azubuike’s season-ending hand injury.
Now, one of Bill Self’s great strengths is in-season player improvement. Malik Newman is the most recent example. A year ago, he was just kind of there, not really helping, not really making a difference. By the end of the season, he was the best player on a Final Four team.
That’s an extreme example. But if KU can get a similar path from, say, Quentin Grimes then the outlook changes. Dedric Lawson is a problem for virtually any college defender. Devon Dotson has played well, and Lagerald Vick is a monster when his shot is falling. If they get improvement from a guy or two, the rising tide lifts all boats.
Azubuike’s loss can be managed. Lawson has been better without the big man on the floor, and if Silvio De Sousa returns — make a decision already, NCAA — then the strength inside is again a significant advantage.
But none of this guaranteed. Grimes might be one of those freshmen who doesn’t play up to his ranking, and the NCAA could let De Sousa’s situation drag out.
No matter what, Kansas has the best coach and best homecourt advantage. That’s won them titles before.
Maybe it’s closer than some of us thought, but KU is still the favorite.
This has become self-parody by this point but say it with me:
Tim is a Chiefs fan!
This week, I’m particularly grateful for this moment the other day when our 4 year old had two buddies over and I overheard them confirming to each other that they were all best friends. I mean, come on. Week made.
This story was originally published January 8, 2019 at 5:00 AM.