The case for the Chiefs’ defense: How it could be much improved in 2018

The words that follow are the case for the Chiefs’ defense, and perhaps before we start it’s important to be clear on what that means. The defense was rotten last year, we all know that, and not just because of the second half of the playoff game.

Coach Andy Reid has been clear about this.

Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton has been clear about this.

General manager Brett Veach has been clear about this.

This is a good roster, and what has become a solid organization again. Lots to be excited about, and so far most of that has centered on the offense. That’s understandable, and natural, particularly with the talents of new starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

But this is also true: The Chiefs are unlikely to be more than an entertaining 8-8 team if the defense isn’t significantly better.

The case for why that could happen involves many factors, many men, many technical points and also some broad ones. It involves Justin Houston’s strength, Dee Ford’s back, Eric Berry’s recovery, a critical upgrade from the 35-year-old version of Derrick Johnson to the 26-year-old version of Anthony Hitchens, and the ability to better cover receivers when the pass rush is slowed.

The case, then, centers largely around Steven Nelson and a group of his fellow cornerbacks who are long on confidence if short on name recognition.

“We’re locked in,” Nelson said. “We have a great group. I think people on the outside get caught up in big names but, like, so what?”

Again. Let’s be clear. The need isn’t for the Chiefs to field a top five defense, and the players and coaches hold the burden of proof. But the path exists to an effective unit, closer to the unit that in Sutton’s first four years ranked an average of 13th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric than the one that was dead last in 2017.

First, a quick assessment of last year’s defense. The run defense was among the league’s worst, and without more threats, opposing offenses were allowed to focus on stopping Houston. Sutton was agonizingly unable to cope with Berry’s injury. His replacement at safety, Daniel Sorensen, was allowed to be exposed far too long, because Sutton didn’t have a better idea.

But Nelson’s injury is often overlooked, the absence of a good NFL cornerback over the first seven games further stretching an already thin secondary.

There are three main jobs of a defense, then, and the 2017 Chiefs stunk at each: stopping the run, rushing the passer and covering receivers.

But look:

The run defense improved as Reggie Ragland played more, and signing Hitchens at inside linebacker turns a weakness into a strength.

The pass rush improves if outside linebacker Dee Ford is healthy, Breeland Speaks makes the impact expected by coaches, or Tanoh Kpassagnon improves off a virtual redshirt season. Chris Jones’ primary job is not pass rushing, but he’s shown an improving consistency in that area from the interior of the line.

And, perhaps most importantly, the coverage improves with Nelson healthy and leading a group of talented if unproven or uncertain corners behind newcomer Kendall Fuller.

The Chiefs will lack a cornerback with the playmaking history of Marcus Peters, and if that trade had not occurred they would have perhaps the league’s best pair of corners. But even those of us who saw the Peters trade as a mistake can recognize his reputation for freelancing, and that he could disrupt his own team at times as well as the opposing side.

The Chiefs made a fascinating bet as an organization. Their defense was a problem pretty much all season, and the franchise decided the problem was the players.

Four of the six Chiefs who played the most on defense last year are gone. Seven of the top 14 are replaced, as well as others who featured in the playoff collapse, like recently retired Darrelle Revis.

You can understand the logic. Reid is fiercely loyal to his coaches, and Sutton has a history of production with a group built around Houston, Berry and a top cornerback.

That’s what Sutton has now, and assuming these players’ health holds, the Chiefs have their best pair of corners since Peters and Sean Smith in 2015.

At that point, the improvement will likely have to come from a pass rush less reliant on outside linebacker Justin Houston — 29 years old, and fully available for just 30 of 48 regular season games since 2014 — being Superman and more on pass rush by committee.

Most matters of luck went against the Chiefs in 2017, and a much improved unit in 2018 probably needs more fortune than you’d want to rely upon.

But this is the time of year for optimism, and the path for one of the league’s worst defenses last year to be critically better this year does not require a stretch of what’s reasonably possible.

This story was originally published July 30, 2018 at 2:59 PM.