Tyler Tolbert’s hit streak was less likely than being struck by lightning twice
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- Royals defeated the Mets 16-12 in a wild, error-filled game in New York.
- The Royals allowed three runs on a 39-foot batted ball and made three throwing errors.
- Tyler Tolbert tied an MLB record with 12 straight plate appearances resulting in hits.
The night began with a play made for Little League.
It concluded with a stat line never before bested in the big leagues.
The Royals beat the Mets 16-12 on Tuesday night in New York in their wildest game of the year. The Royals allowed three runs on a baseball that traveled all of 39 feet and made three throwing errors on one play. They trailed 9-4, scored the ensuing 12 runs and then needed to hang on for the final margin.
And we haven’t even arrived at the most improbable part of the night.
Tyler Tolbert, a 28-year-old utility man with fewer than 100 major-league at-bats to his name, tied an MLB record by turning 12 straight plate appearances into base hits.
Or extra-base hits. He hit a home run for the second consecutive day — he had one in his career prior to Monday — as part of a 5-for-6 night. That follows a 5-for-5 day against the Phillies. And that followed a 2-for-2 day against the Phillies two days earlier.
The 12 straight hits tied a modern-day MLB record before he popped out to right field in the ninth inning. His final three hits didn’t leave the infield, the last of which came on a half-swing that prompted a laugh as he reached first base.
That’s probably not the surprising part — his speed has always been in play.
His bat? Rarely.
A dozen straight hits is obviously highly improbable for any player, considering no modern-day player has ever bested it. But the fact this player did it? Even more improbable.
How so? Well, before the streak began, Tolbert was hitting .200 this season and .247 for his career.
So in the most simplified version of the exercise, in this year alone, his previous chances of recording a hit were 20%.
The chances of a .200 hitter recording 12 straight hits: 1 in 244.1 million.
The proverbial odds of being struck by lightning twice: 1 in 234.1 million.
You’re more likely to get struck by lightning — twice! — than Tyler Tolbert was of stringing together 12 straight hits.
That’s the oversimplified math. But there’s a reason it ties an MLB record. Walt Dropo last did it in 1952, per the Royals telecast. Tolbert is the third player in MLB modern history with back-to-back five-hit games, per Stathead data.
But let’s give Tolbert a little more credit, even if just a little. He was a career .247 before the streak, and a career .246 hitter in the minors and a .236 college hitter. If you use the high-water mark of the three as the expectation, his odds of getting 12 straight hits were roughly 1 in 19.4 million.
So, you know, super likely.
By the way, if you want to get really technical about it, you could point out Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sánchez started Monday’s game, and he was second in baseball in ERA, which made the feat even more difficult. Well, he was second in ERA before the Royals tore him up.
Before Tyler Tolbert tore him up.
Tolbert raised his average from .200 to .404 during the streak. It fell all the way to a pedestrian .396 after his ninth-inning out.
After Mets lefty AJ Minter forced him to pop out to right field in the ninth, the Royals dugout gave Tolbert a standing ovation. As he stepped into the dugout, they reached out to clap his hand, as though he was arriving after a home-run swing.
He’d already hit one of those — after he hit another Monday.
He’d hit only five home runs over the past two years across all levels.
And yet, this was far, far more unlikely.
This story was originally published July 7, 2026 at 10:22 PM.