Why Lucas Erceg has had a most unusual season as the KC Royals’ closer
The latest Lucas Erceg collapse began with a baseball twirling through the air at just 36.8 miles per hour — and it left a batter holding only a small fragment of the bat he’d swung to hit it.
The play-by-play in the box score is almost deceitful:
Paul Goldschmidt singles on a popup to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.
Singles. On a popup. To the shortstop.
The latest Lucas Erceg collapse concluded with a baseball rolling down the third-base line at 35.2 miles per hour, off the bat of a check swing, flirting but never quite taking a left turn into foul territory.
The box score play-by-play is nearly as confusing:
J.C. Escarra singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Lucas Erceg.
The two softest contacted baseballs of the toughest loss of the Royals season — to be followed up with perhaps the most humiliating Tuesday — arrived in the ninth inning, part of a rally that burned Erceg for his fourth blown save of the season. And if you watched the Royals’ closer closely, you could see a faint smirk, as though you could probably read his mind, too.
The forthcoming column began as an exercise designed to dig into the root of a question front-and-center of a Royals season:
What’s wrong with Lucas Erceg?
The answer pushed back on the premise itself — well, at least to some degree.
What’s wrong with Lucas Erceg?
A year ago, Erceg posted a 2.64 earned run average in his first full season in Kansas City. His role was less about owning the eighth inning in front of closer Carlos Estevez and more about throwing when most needed.
This year, as an encore, Erceg has posted an ERA that ballooned to 5.06 after the outing Monday. The Royals have the second-worst winning percentage in baseball when leading after eight innings, and Erceg is not only part of that but a leading character in the plot. As evidenced by the blowout Tuesday, they needed a win Monday after carrying a 3-2 lead into the ninth.
It’s a complete contrast in a single year.
Or is it?
This year, Erceg has had days like Monday. His expected earned run average (xERA), per Fangraphs — which uses metrics like exit velocity and launch angle to measure pitching performances based on the quality of contact — is far lower than the reality. The xERA sits at 3.83.
His expected ERA last year: 3.83.
The exact same.
In fact, when you compare the past two seasons, you’ll find a lot of similarity between them. His expected batting average allowed is actually slightly better this year (.243 compared to .248); and his expected slugging percentage allowed is far better this year (.328 compared to .388 a year ago).
It’s symbolic of the fortune, or misfortune, built into the game itself. That goes for both seasons. After all, if he’s been unlucky this season, he had to be a little lucky last season, right?
Well, yes. Indeed, he was.
Among the 336 pitchers who have fired at least 300 pitches this season, Erceg ranks in the bottom-10 percentile in luck.
Among the 479 most-frequently used pitchers a year ago, he ranked in the top-15 percentile in luck.
To be frank, the development shouldn’t be terribly surprising, considering his whiff rate dipped below 25% last year, and his strikeout rate ranked 124th out of 144 relievers. There was bound to be some regression, and shoved into a closer’s role after the injury to Estevez, there was likely to be some exposure, too.
Some.
He’s pushed well past the norm. And there’s a metaphor in there for the way the initial third of the Royals’ season has unfolded.
The expectation is fine.
The reality lately has been grim.
Where Lucas Erceg can improve
It’s not all luck. Or bad luck.
There are aspects of it within Erceg’s control that need to improve, and one most obviously:
The first pitch.
Erceg is throwing fewer first-pitch strikes (58.1% after 64.3% last year), and the punishment for the dip has been significant.
When he falls behind 1-0 in the count, Erceg is allowing opponents a .303 batting average, .410 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage.
Here were those numbers in 2025: .215 batting average, .311 on-base percentage and .304 slugging percentage.
There’s more than one reason for the change, but his four-seam fastball — the pitch he throws most frequently — has been pounded, to the tune of .370xBA, per Statcast data. That’s 100 points higher than a year ago. When you don’t have a great feel for the fastball, or at least not the typical feel for it, it magnifies the difficulty in working from behind in the count.
It’s not as easy as just grooving a first-pitch strike over the plate, either. On first-pitch contact, opposing hitters are 7-for-14 against Erceg. That’s already more first-pitch hits than he allowed all of last season.
The entire package has been thrust into an expanding spotlight, with Erceg occupying the closer’s role. It speaks to why the Royals rank 24th in bullpen ERA.
On Tuesday, as a follow-up, the Royals didn’t need a closer. Bailey Falter allowed five runs before the Yankees even completed their first cycle through the order.
The exit velocity on the first eight trips to the plate: 92.8, 109.6, 105.1, 106.2, 107.4, 101.2, 105.9, 103.1. Unlike a day earlier, the runs were plenty earned.
The Royals dropped to 22-33, stuck in an unsettling spot before the calendar has even reached June. There are a host of reasons why. We’ve been talking about them for weeks.
For a struggling team, when they are actually leading a game late, they have to hang on.
And, apparently, they need a bit of better fortune to do so.