Here’s the outlook for Kansas, Mizzou basketball as March Madness begins
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Mizzou found a working rotation; metrics improved strongly in last 5 weeks.
- Kansas needs time to jell with Darryn Peterson and find on-court rhythm.
- Conference tournaments are key; Kansas may need them more than Mizzou.
The latest era of college basketball has revolutionized the sport — or, more specifically, the roster-building within it — but for all the focus on money and the identification of talent, it’s also required something else.
Time.
The effect of a high roster turnover rate is that teams need more time in a season to jell. They need time before they put it all together.
In Missouri’s case, that’s time to figure out exactly how — and who — you play best. In the case of Kansas, after Darryn Peterson looked about as healthy as he has in weeks, you still need more time with the full group together before you feel comfortable.
Kansas plays at Arizona State on Tuesday, and Missouri plays at Oklahoma. They’ll each wrap up their regular seasons Saturday before their respective conference tournaments next week.
Where does each team stand as March Madness arrives?
Mizzou’s NCAA Tournament outlook
Where do things stand?
Well, we couldn’t be examining that question at a better time for Missouri.
Over the last five weeks, the Tigers rank 13th in the country in Bart Torvik’s wins-above-bubble metric, a formula that essentially determines the strength of a team’s NCAA Tournament resume. And they are 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency over that same time.
They were 53rd and 64th in those metrics, respectively, before the latest streak — which, considering the automatic bids, would’ve put them on the wrong side of the bubble.
So, what’s changed?
The rotation, for starters — buoyed by player availability. Trent Pierce didn’t play until January, and Jayden Stone missed all of December.
In the aforementioned five-week stretch, Pierce has been the 41st most efficient offensive player in the nation, per Bart Torvik data. Mark Mitchell ranks 21st in points over replacement player (PRPG). Iowa point guard Bennett Stirtz, a Liberty High graduate, is No. 1 in that stat since Jan. 31, by the way.
Mizzou coach Dennis Gates has figured out a rotation that clicks — one that highlights Mitchell, Pierce and Stone and a bench that features more Trent Burns and less of Jacob Crews. Burns, a 7-foot-5 freshman has 21 points and 19 rebounds in 68 minutes over the last four games.
But it’s not just about his numbers. His presence allows Mitchell to remain at the 4, where he is just plain physically overmatching opponents. They can’t guard him. There’s a reason he is 10th in free-throw rate among high-major players over the same time frame. Gates has found a way to secure him more advantageous matchups.
As mentioned, we’re in an era in which it’s going to take some teams some games to figure out how they play best because of ever-changing rosters. It’s a credit to Gates and his staff that a 43-point embarrassment to Illinois didn’t end the Tigers’ season. Heck, it may have even jump-started it.
It took them a while to get here, but Missouri has transformed from a team unlikely to make the tournament into one you’d rather not have to play in an 8-9 or 7-10 game.
Every bracket should now have the Tigers part of the tournament field. Depending on the draw in a couple of weeks, more than a few will want to consider predicting them to advance.
KU’s NCAA Tournament projection
Bill Self pulled out his favorite motivational word over the weekend — “soft” — though it wasn’t strictly motivational.
It was reality.
KU was just plain outworked in battles for rebounds and loose balls in Arizona, a game in which the officials were content to allow physicality.
The irony? One Kansas player has seen that accusation frequently this year, and he looked more competitive than he has all season. Rather, it looked like he had the ability to be more competitive.
He didn’t shoot it well, but Darryn Peterson still led an early second-half surge — not because he caught fire but because of how he responded when he didn’t. He twice rebounded on his own miss, plays in which he looked like the most athletic player on a court packed with athleticism. There was more spring to his game.
The 23-point loss is the Jayhawks’ largest margin of defeat this season, but it might have a better long-term effect than some of their wins. If they get that Darryn Peterson for the rest of the year — the competitiveness and the ability to play that competitive — they could wind up being in a pretty good spot.
That’s a pretty big if, of course.
And one other thing: There isn’t a lot of time left.
Kansas can still look more disjointed with Peterson than without him. If they’re going to make a run later this month, they have to find a rhythm when he’s on the floor. Melvin Council still has to be aggressive in getting downhill. Flory Bidunga has made only three shots in the last two games combined, but the offense hasn’t exactly looked to create easy buckets for him, either, instead deferring to Peterson.
Which is the point. In a condensed time frame that includes two regular season games and the Big 12 Tournament, they have to figure out the best formula with their best player, and still not lose the other parts that make them great. That’s their ceiling — with Peterson — and it could be pretty high.
A lot has been made of KU’s record with Peterson (12-6) compared to its record without him (9-2), but it ignores some pretty key context. The average KenPom ranking of opponents with Peterson in the lineup (48.2) is nearly twice as good as those when he’s out of the lineup (92.4).
We really shouldn’t have to argue KU is better with the No. 1 pick in the draft, but there’s also a reason why that point still exists. They didn’t operate as a cohesive offense Saturday in Arizona.
They have two of the bottom-six Big 12 Conference teams on the schedule to close out the regular season. It’s an opportunity to build some momentum.
The conference tournaments might typically be most important for bubble teams trying to work their ways into the NCAA tournament.
But KU needs it more than most. If nothing else, they just need the games. They’ve played well without their best player. They need to remember just how good they can be with him.