An AFC Championship without Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen? Could’ve seen it coming
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Playoff exits show top-paid quarterbacks don't guarantee postseason wins.
- Chiefs' cap burden forces reliance on drafting and asset accumulation.
- 2026 outlook: Kansas City needs major draft haul to restore championship odds.
The most significant fallout in the NFL came Monday in Buffalo, nearly a thousand miles from the three-time defending AFC champion that’s been home for a couple of weeks.
But there’s still a correlation in Kansas City.
The Bills fired head coach Sean McDermott after nine seasons. It’s probably time, even if it was Josh Allen who didn’t cash in against the Broncos over the weekend — and Josh Allen who turned the ball over four times, and whiffed on a chance to build a cushion late in the fourth quarter, or win the game in the fourth quarter, or win the game in overtime.
Allen owned that afterward.
But here’s the other fallout, and the correlation: It leaves the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Bengals home for the AFC Championship Game, the four teams that the Vegas sportsbooks gave the best odds to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Those four teams have something else in common besides early vacations. They have top-flight quarterbacks, four of the very best in the NFL, and they pay their top-flight quarterbacks.
The four teams are each in the top half of the league in quarterback investment. Yet they’re all home.
It’s not just a story of these playoffs.
It’s the story of most playoffs.
The Rams have invested more in the position than any team in the league and are still playing football, but they are the exception among those left standing — or those who even made the dance in the first place. The next seven teams on the list in terms of 2025 quarterback cap hit, per Spotrac — the Cowboys, Cardinals, Bengals, Falcons, Ravens, Raiders and Dolphins — didn’t even reach the playoffs.
The Seahawks, the favorite to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, rank 22nd in the NFL in quarterback investment. The Patriots and Broncos are among the lowest five in the league. That’s who’s representing the AFC. (Even if you include the dead weight of the Russell Wilson contract, the Broncos are still outside the top-10.)
That does not make this postseason against the grain. The last three were.
Because the Chiefs were.
For three decades, no quarterback had occupied more than 13.1% of his team’s salary cap and won the Super Bowl.
Then Patrick Mahomes did it. Twice. He occupied 17.2% of the cap in 2022 and won, then took up 16.9% of the cap when the Chiefs beat the 49ers to repeat.
But the league’s most exceptional is the exception.
This season fits neatly as a reminder of how difficult, even unlikely, the recent Chiefs run has been. The system is designed to prevent the kind of stranglehold the Chiefs had on the AFC in particular — you know, until their 6-11 collapse this year.
But it’s a reminder too of how difficult the future could be. The Mahomes cap number isn’t shrinking — even if his contract has some flexibility of when the large number hits, there is little question it’s coming.
How can the Chiefs overcome that? Well, take a look at how they already did.
When you’re in this spot, paying a premium for the most premium of positions in sports, you have to draft well. There are no shortcuts because you can no longer afford the shortcuts.
The Chiefs rode the success of their 2022 NFL Draft class — one of the best in their history — to two Super Bowls and a third appearance. The Rams implemented a strategy to stockpile picks, and they plucked five starters from the 2022 draft and five more from the 2023 draft.
That wasn’t a luxury for a team that employed Patrick Mahomes, same as it’s not been a luxury for the team in L.A. that compensates its quarterback room at a higher rate than any in the league. It’s the requirement.
Which is why this is more than a recognition of the Chiefs’ past accomplishments. It’s an underscoring of the importance of what comes next.
If they want to buck the trend again, they need another boost from the draft, or a larger boost than they’ve had from the last few.
They do have one thing at long last working in their favor — or at least that’s how we can describe it now, after the frustrations of a season in which they couldn’t close out games. The Chiefs have better draft capital than they’ve had since 2013, Andy Reid’s first season in Kansas City.
Among the teams that currently rank in the top half of the league in projected quarterback investment in 2026, (which is certainly subjected to change) only three have what the Chiefs have: a top-10 pick.
The construct of the NFL typically reserves those picks for the teams still searching for the quarterback, not those who have already figured it out. The quarterback gives you a high floor, even if paying the quarterback has historically proven to alter the ceiling this time of year.
The Chiefs broke through that ceiling for a half-decade, ignoring the league’s conventional wisdom. They fell through the floor this year.
The Bills — and the Ravens and Bengals, too — are proof that it’s designed to be hard with this formula.
Even if the Chiefs once made it look easy.