The Kansas City Chiefs picked a really bad time to miss the playoffs. Here’s why
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs conclude season early after playoff miss; Reid finally notes the end.
- Broncos and Patriots claim conference contention amid weak opponent slates.
- Mahomes injury and late-season struggles cost Kansas City January playoff work.
It’s New Year’s Day, and the Chiefs’ season has only days, not weeks, remaining. The most unusual part? We know the exact end date.
The Chiefs have mostly avoided acknowledging their end-of-year reality, with head coach Andy Reid insistent on focusing instead on the next game, even if the next games have been among the least important he’s coached in 13 seasons in Kansas City.
But this week, at long last, Reid recognized the contrast for a team that has hung three Super Bowl banners in the last five years.
Isn’t it a strange feeling to be playing for virtually nothing in January?
“I want to keep that a strange feeling,” Reid said, nodding along to the question. “You don’t like ending right now, obviously, but that’s what it is.”
It’s different.
Here’s what else will be: On Monday, Chiefs players will return to the practice facility for exit physicals and locker room clean-outs.
Soon thereafter, the team’s returning coaches will embark on preparations for another year, all the while 14 other staffs are preparing for another opponent. A league that waits for no one will march on its postseason without the Chiefs for the first time in a decade.
There’s never a good time for these kinds of seasons, never a good time to miss out on the playoffs altogether, but, man, the Chiefs sure picked a bad time for their whiff.
Why?
Never has the top of the AFC — what would have been the Chiefs’ competition this month — been so vulnerable.
I don’t say that simply because the top of the AFC won’t include the Chiefs. I say it because of where everyone else sits.
Inconsistent.
Beatable.
Flawed.
It will make for a competitive, if not compelling, postseason. It will also make it a particularly frustrating one to miss.
I’ll put it in the best numerical form I can: DVOA, FTN’s all-encompassing down-by-down measurement based on situation and opponent, is scored in percentages, with the higher percentages reflecting better teams. In terms of DVOA, the best team in the AFC playoff field this year will be the Houston Texans at 16.8%.
The percentage, not the team, is the relevance here, because it underscores the point: The Chiefs picked a really bad time to skip the dance.
In every year of this Chiefs dynasty, there has been at least one and usually two stronger teams in the AFC playoff field, and almost always at least one far stronger team in the field.
As measured by that same DVOA metric:
• Last year, the Ravens (41.4%) and Bills (22.7%) eclipsed that number, and even the seventh-seeded Broncos were about equal to it. The Chiefs had to beat the Bills on their way to the Super Bowl.
• A year earlier, in 2023, there were three other teams (in addition to the Chiefs) graded better overall than anyone in this year’s AFC bracket: the Ravens (45.5%), Bills (24.1%) and Dolphins (17.6%). The Chiefs had to beat them all to reach the Super Bowl.
Imagine that. In terms of the DVOA measurement, the Chiefs had to beat three tougher teams in the 2023 playoffs than any AFC playoff team this year. And that was just to reach the Super Bowl.
• In 2022, there were also three that topped this year’s Texans team: the Bills (38.9%), Ravens (21.0%) and Bengals (20.9%). The Chiefs needed to beat the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game before eventually winning the Super Bowl.
• In 2021, the Bills (27.3%) eclipsed anyone in this year’s field, and met the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
• In 2020, it was both the Bills (27.0%) and Ravens (22.2%). The Chiefs needed to beat the Bills that year, too.
• And finally, in 2019, the Ravens (38.5%) and Patriots (24.2%) were graded higher. The Titans did the Chiefs’ dirty work that year and beat both those teams, easing the Chiefs’ path to the Super Bowl.
That 2019 path was the exception. In the ensuing five seasons, the Chiefs played a tougher team than this year’s bracket can offer.
Every. Single. Year.
And they did pretty well in those postseasons, you might recall.
The Broncos and Patriots are in the mix for the conference’s No. 1 seed this weekend. (The Jaguars also have an outside chance, but they need to win and see both the Broncos and Patriots slip.)
The Broncos (13.0% DVOA) have beaten quarterbacks Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Justin Fields, Jaxon Dart, Davis Mills, Geno Smith, Marcus Mariota, Geno Smith again and Chris Oladokun. That list accounts for nine of their 13 wins, and only one of those nine came by more than one score. They have squeaked by some of the league’s worst competition. It’s why their DVOA isn’t higher. It accounts for that.
And the Patriots (5.5% DVOA) have played a historically light schedule, which is most certainly factored into the metric. Their slate is nearly twice as easy as the next-softest schedule.
Yet the Broncos and Patriots have something the Chiefs envy: a credible shot to make the Super Bowl.
There have been many frustrations in this Chiefs season — initially, their inability to turn fourth-quarter fights into wins, and more recently a season-ending injury to quarterback Patrick Mahomes that would’ve made this conversation moot anyway.
But this is at least on the list, if not near the top: Their work in January, at long last, might have been a tad easier.
Turns out, they won’t be working Sundays in January at all.
This story was originally published January 2, 2026 at 6:00 AM.