Are the Chiefs really in danger of missing the playoffs? Here’s what the odds say
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs sit 5-5 and tied for eighth in AFC as seven teams make playoffs.
- Betting markets favor Kansas City in all seven remaining games, implying recovery.
- Chiefs produce competitive processes but late-game miscues and self-inflicted errors.
Some 20 days ago in Orchard Park, New York, Patrick Mahomes was asked about the possibility of a rematch. It was bound to come up, really.
The Bills had beaten the Chiefs in the regular season once more, an outcome proven hollow in four postseason rematches over the last half-decade. Could he envision that scenario again?
“I mean,” he said, “we’ve got to get there first.”
The response fit a player who, like his head coach, publicly prefers to assume nothing — proverbial coach-speak, if you will.
But three weeks later, we have to ask: Well, will they get there?
The Chiefs are 5-5, their worst record through 10 games since Mahomes took over in 2018. They are locked in a three-way tie for eighth place in a conference that will send its top seven teams to the playoffs.
It’s, uh, different.
They have never not won the AFC West with Mahomes— and therefore never not hosted at least one playoff game. Remember two years ago, when we made such a big deal out of the Chiefs having to win a couple of road games to reach a Super Bowl?
We called that their floor, because traveling to Buffalo and Baltimore to win playoff games literally represented their most difficult path, and it still produced a Super Bowl trophy.
Will the Chiefs have anywhere to visit this January? Or are they really in danger of missing the playoffs altogether?
I’ll open with the markets and the models, those less persuaded by past history and unmoved by eye tests. The betting market still views the Chiefs’ outlook most favorably — their implied odds of reaching the postseason rest at 66.5%. That’s better than the ESPN playoff model, which puts them at 55% — barely better than a coin-toss. The New York Times simulator is similarly at 56%.
A week ago, we made the case the Chiefs were playing the most important regular-season game of Mahomes’ career. After all, their chances to extend a nine-year run atop the AFC West swung from 51% to 9% based on the outcome of the game in Denver.
Let me make the case again.
The PFF model also gives the Chiefs about a 55% chance to make the postseason. But one way or another, that’s about to change. They host the Colts on Sunday afternoon, the most difficult opponent left on their schedule and the opponent most influential to their postseason fate.
If the Chiefs beat Indianapolis, per the PFF model, they will have a 68% chance to qualify for the playoffs. If they lose, that falls to 33%.
It could get dicey.
But it’s certainly not far-fetched yet.
How often do NFL teams make this happen?
On Thursday, describing the situation in which the Chiefs find themselves, KC special teams coordinator Dave Toub called in “uncharted territory.”
It is.
For them.
But this path has been there for the rest of the league — over and over again. At least one team has started 5-5 and later made the playoffs in every NFL season since 2015. That’s a 10-year streak, and keep in mind the playoffs only encompassed six teams per conference until they expanded in 2020.
In fact, on average over the last decade, not one but two 5-5 teams later qualify for the postseason. That streak includes the 2015 Chiefs, who not only started 5-5 but 1-5 before rattling off 10 wins in a row.
There’s another distinction about that 2015 Chiefs team. They are one of only two playoff qualifiers over the last 18 years to start 5-5 and then go undefeated the rest of the way.
The other success stories still lost another game, and the majority of them lost at least two more.
In other words, as the Chiefs preach no margin for error, well, there literally almost always is still some margin for error.
The AFC playoff competition
Or is there?
That part isn’t completely within the Chiefs’ control. It’s dependent on the competition.
If we exclude the Chiefs from the division race — and I’ll note that door hasn’t completely closed just yet, but it’s moving — we can examine a scenario for one of the final three AFC Wild Card spots. Those are currently occupied by the Bills (7-3), Chargers (7-4) and Jaguars (6-4), who hold something in common:
They beat the Chiefs.
Which means the Chiefs aren’t just playing catch-up — they’re playing catch-up without the benefit of a tiebreaker advantage.
The Chiefs do still have a date left with the Chargers in Week 15, so that tiebreaker could change. They would also have to hold off 5-5 Houston, though they get the Texans at home later this year, and 5-5 Baltimore, though they own the tiebreaker with the Ravens, who are also still in the thick of their own division race and could qualify that way.
The playoff models suggest the Chargers would be easier to catch than the Jaguars, and that has a lot to do with the schedule. After this week’s bye, the Chargers have the eighth-hardest remaining slate in the league. (The Chiefs have the 19th-hardest.)
The Chargers, rated 16th in FTN Fantasy’s all-encompassing DVOA model, are vulnerable for a familiar reason: They’re not healthy. Justin Herbert is the most pressured quarterback in the league since losing tackle Joe Alt for the season. In fact, his expected points added (EPA) per dropback is outside the top-20 without Alt.
Again, the Chiefs also have the chance to hand the Chargers a loss themselves when the two teams play at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Dec. 14.
The Jaguars are 15th in both the DVOA metric and the betting market rankings, which is actually a bit higher than I would have guessed. Their early-season wins were buoyed by turnovers, including the one against the Chiefs, which isn’t exactly a predictor of future success. They have the 20th most difficult schedule remaining.
The Chiefs are better than both of those teams, but because of their own slips, they’re playing from behind. At the very least, though, this ought to be safe to say: The Jaguars and Chargers haven’t lost their last game this season. And I’d be surprised if they manage the final stretch without at least two more losses apiece.
Which opens the door.
What about the Chiefs?
Of course, any path to overtake one or both teams — and hold off those chasing — requires the Chiefs to win some games.
They should.
The Chiefs are still a good team, if also a quite evidently flawed team, and for whatever reason, they like to showcase all of their flaws in the fourth quarter.
They didn’t arrive at 5-5 because of mediocrity. They arrived there because they are 0-5 in one-score games and have yet to win a game in which they’ve trailed at any point in the second half.
They are fifth in DVOA — and DVOA creator Aaron Schatz said they are the fourth-highest-graded 5-5 team ever in the formula.
I know it’s been suggested that any belief the Chiefs will reach the postseason is based on past success.
It’s not.
It’s based on this year.
As I mentioned in a column earlier this week, the Chiefs rank third in the NFL in points per possession and second in yards in possession, and they have a higher percentage of drives reach the red zone than literally every other team in football.
You can’t ignore the results this season. They should’ve beaten the Jaguars. They didn’t. They were 28-0 when totaling at least 375 yards and allowing fewer than 350 under Mahomes. They out-gained the Jaguars 476-319 and lost. A pick-6 from the goal line can change some things.
Or any interception at the goal line, for that matter. The Chiefs held the Eagles to 216 yards of offense in Week 2 and lost. It is still the worst passing performance the defending-champion Eagles have had this year, and their second-worst day offensively overall. They won anyway.
I mention those two examples to prove (stuff) happens in the NFL, and the Chiefs’ late-game performances haven’t been good enough to overcome it.
But those kinds of days — the entirety of the processes, not just the result — should breed some optimism about the Chiefs’ ability to do their part. It’s in there.
That’s not just my opinion, but where the money rests. The Chiefs will be favored in all seven of their remaining games. That’s not the betting market’s comment on the difficulty of their schedule. It’s a belief in them.
It’s easy to see the path.
But we’re here, having this discussion, because the Chiefs have spent the year making it anything but easy on themselves.