The Kansas City Chiefs finally caught a break with their schedule. Kind of
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs gain timely bye week; Reid and coaches conduct focused self-scout.
- Mahomes remains 11-0 after byes vs rested opponents; edge matters now.
- Bye allows Chiefs to dissect Buffalo loss and adjust schemes before Denver.
The allure of an NFL franchise with three Super Bowls in the past six seasons, with the only back-to-back title run over the past two decades, and with nearly double the home playoff games of any other franchise in their quarterback’s tenure is perhaps best exemplified by, well, ratings.
The Chiefs are not only a draw but the draw for a league that already draws plenty. They are dangled in front of network executives who want them wherever and, more to the forthcoming point, whenever.
For the past two years, a take-no-prisoner schedule has locked the Chiefs into holidays, short rest and just about every day of the week.
But at long last, the Chiefs have caught a break in the schedule. OK, we’re probably going to have to call it a mini-break.
But just the same: Their bye week could not have arrived at a better time this season.
That’s because of the recent past.
And because of the very near future.
This sentence won’t be the first time you’re learning that Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is historically good following a bye week. He’s 22-4 in the regular season, which is the best in the business, per the Elias Sports Bureau.
But let’s dive a bit deeper. Like most things, you typically find an even more impressive statistical output when you plug quarterback Patrick Mahomes into the equation.
Since employing Mahomes, the Chiefs are 11-0 when they are coming off of a bye and the opposition is not. (That includes the playoffs.)
Thus, there is statistically no set of circumstances in which the Chiefs would rather find themselves than this week. They’ve been literally perfect in these conditions.
So why is it a break if the schedule offers the Chiefs that set of circumstances every year?
Because of what comes next, and because of what came last.
Up next: The Chiefs will play the first-place Broncos on Sunday in Denver, a game that will have greater influence on their chances to win the AFC West than any in the Mahomes era. They trail the Broncos by two losses, and a three-game deficit with just seven to play would be darn near insurmountable.
If you have one opportunity to stack a historically-perfect advantage onto the outcome of a game, why wouldn’t you prefer it be now?
Mahomes has never needed a game more on a path to winning a division, and he’s never lost when granted the extra week of rest in comparison to his counterpart. Which brings up the mini break — the asterisk, if you will. Although the Broncos played last week, they got the Raiders on Thursday night, offering them some extra rest of their own.
But the fact the Broncos are the team waiting on other end of the bye represents just one aspect of the well-timed advantage anyway.
The other is baked into the very reason for the 22-4 record. The reason for the 11-0 record.
Reid gives players the week off, but the Chiefs’ coaches stay home and scout. And for a few days, they’re focused mostly on a particular subject — themselves.
They’re not unique in the way they spend that time, but it’s becoming evident they’re unique in just how well they utilize it.
Just two weeks ago, if they had conducted the self-evaluation, the exercise would have illuminated film of the league’s No. 1 offense over a six-game stretch this season. They were rolling.
Then came a trip to Buffalo.
The Bills pressured Mahomes on more than half of his dropbacks, per Next Gen Stats, the first time that’s been true in five years. They played a heavy dose of defensive backs on every snap, no matter what personnel the Chiefs lined up. They basically dared the Chiefs to run the ball, and the Chiefs tried to throw through it.
The Buffalo secondary added some wrinkles to coverage and perhaps took advantage of Mahomes’ emboldened desire to look farther down the field than he has in years.
That mixture isn’t altogether unique. But it was effective.
So instead of delving into the reasons behind a red-hot offense for six weeks running, that’s what the Chiefs coaches had the opportunity to analyze over the bye week.
The reasons for their struggles.
If you’re thinking the Bills might have provided a blueprint for other teams to study — because why wouldn’t you study the first team to shut down the Chiefs in nearly two months — well, now the Chiefs get to study it first.
That’s why it all makes for good timing.
And by the way, there’s a remarkably similar story on the other side of the football. The Chiefs defense had allowed just two scoring drives over the previous 2 1/2 games.
They’d pitched a shutout in eight of the previous 10 quarters. Then Buffalo became the first team all year to hang 400 yards on them.
“We looked at obviously all nine games and put it all together. We didn’t feel great in the last one,” defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said of his own self-scout. “We were feeling pretty good about, I guess, the previous games there. All in all, I don’t think we’ve played our best football. I’d like to think we haven’t.”
That conclusion is drawn from the Buffalo outing, and that Buffalo outing if followed by enough time to search for the reasons why it fell apart for one afternoon.
Makes for pretty good timing, yeah?