Why the Royals haven’t called up Jac Caglianone (yet). And when they might
The best prospect in the Royals organization hit a baseball onto a rooftop over the weekend, and just in case you missed it, Major League Baseball social media managers made sure to post the clip across all of their accounts.
Of a minor league home run.
A day later, that same prospect, Jac Caglianone, crushed another homer, though this one fell short of the roof.
The first drew the highlight.
The encore — the shorter blast, by comparison — carries more relevance for this column.
Why? It came off a left-handed pitcher, and it came only after Caglianone worked the count into his favor against that left-handed pitcher.
Before we go any farther, there needs to be an understanding in every Caglianone discussion, and that understanding should be obvious: The Royals have long known he can obliterate a baseball. You know, that just might have had something to do with why they picked him sixth overall in the 2024 MLB Draft. They didn’t need to see one bouncing on the roof for confirmation.
The other parts — his approach at the plate, his ability to hit in unfavorable matchups and obliterating the tough pitches — form the foundation of the evaluation now. And they’re driving a question that is beginning to hover publicly (but perhaps not yet privately) over an increasingly promising major-league season:
When will Jac Caglianone get called up to Kansas City?
The quick answer is that it’s to be determined. The Royals have talked about his next step — which probably but not necessarily remains a promotion from Double-A Northwest Arkansas to Triple-A Omaha before the trek to KC. But they haven’t mapped out a precise timeline.
The long answer? It’s complicated.
And, well, these things should be.
“We like what he’s doing. We’re happy with what he’s doing,” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo said. “We’re trying to allow him to develop properly as a hitter, and when this offense settles in, that might be a proper time for him to come up.”
The urgency lingering from the outside the organization, I totally get it. It’s not unfounded. The Royals finished dead last in the American League in runs scored in the opening month of the season, largely because their outfield isn’t hitting. At the same time, their most intriguing prospect since Bobby Witt Jr. looks every bit the part.
The decision with Caglianone, though, has to prioritize what’s best for his development during the Royals’ six years of major-league control, not what best fixes a one-month slump.
At some point, those two things will match, and that time is probably sooner than later. He’s rapidly forcing the issue.
We — you, me, anyone with an internet connection — can look at the numbers, and they’re pretty, and they’re especially pretty lately. In his last 15 games, Caglianone is hitting .431 with five home runs and a 1.202 OPS.
He hit two more home runs Tuesday afternoon, four in his last three games, and those two both went to the opposite field. That, too, catches the eye of the Royals.
The day is coming. It’s when, not if.
Same as his stat line, he literally looks like a big-leaguer at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds. As columnist colleague Vahe Gregorian learned during a recent trip to Springdale, Arkansas, Caglianone conducts himself like a big-leaguer too.
All that stuff matters. In some cases, it matters a lot.
But it’s not everything.
What is? That sparks an interesting conversation inside the team’s front office meetings, the very conversation that, at least so far, as kept him beating up on Double-A pitchers. The crux of the discussion centers around the hitting piece, by the way, not whether he’s ready to play right field. The early returns on the latter are good, or at least good enough.
This is probably too simple a summary of how the Royals analyze it every day, because they rely on a wide-ranging combination of input that encompasses reports from their coaches, scouts and personnel, along with lots and lots of data to make these decisions — but there are four metrics that seem to stick at the forefront of the analysis.
Think of these as four items that, if you talk with someone either closely or loosely associated with this sort of decision with any minor-leaguer, they’ll get brought up — Caglianone included, but not Caglianone exclusive.
• Hard-hit rate
• Chase rate
• Swing-and-miss rate
• In-zone swing-and-miss rate
There’s no doubt, none, about Caglianone’s hard-hit ability. The home run off a lefty departed his bat at 115 mph. That’s harder than any Royals player has hit a baseball this season — and only Witt hit a ball harder last year, per Statcast.
The ball comes off Caglianone’s bat with real velocity.
That leaves the other three items. The Royals haven’t criticized any of them with Caglianone, at least not publicly, but they have pointed out their importance. Maybe it’s on us to draw the inferences, but it’s not as though that requires a leap.
“In-zone swing and miss is going to be a factor, because when you get a strike thrown to you in the major leagues and you don’t do something with it, that’s a missed opportunity,” Picollo said. “You might get that second opportunity in the minor leagues, but you’re not going to in the major leagues.”
That begins to illuminate the rest of the picture. Caglianone swings and misses more frequently than the Royals would like, which is entirely in rhythm with a player who has stepped to the plate all of 250 times in the minors.
His 14.4% swinging strike rate is 20th highest in the Texas League among 75 qualifying hitters, according to Fangraphs stat-tracking, and it’s higher than any current member of the Royals (who are facing MLB pitching, mind you). He has struck out multiple times in a game (eight) more often than he’s escaped a game unscathed (six).
That happens. Those numbers are improving. But it’s noteworthy that the pitching is better in the majors, of course. So are the game plans, scouting reports and the ability to pick your late-inning matchups.
Caglianone, for example, isn’t facing left-handed specialists out of the bullpen. Heck, he only recently finally faced a team for the second time this year, and his coaches reported back to the Royals that he was pitched drastically differently in the second series than the first. A couple of games, and even one particular pitch, prompted some bad swings. The pitchers had made an adjustment.
Caglianone’s adjustment will need to come next, and he’s a good enough hitter that there’s all the reason in the world to believe it will. In fact, it’s getting harder and harder to find reason to believe it won’t.
But that’s the precise kind of the back-and-forth the Royals are eager to see him experience — the kind of back-and-forth that layers some logic into a patient approach.
Well, can we even consider this that patient?
Caglianone is just 22 years old. He was drafted 11 months ago. He has played in only a third of the minor-league games that Witt did, and that’s even with Witt getting zero games during the COVID season.
If you want a college-to-college athlete comparison, how about one from his own university, Florida? Pete Alonso had four times the amount of plate appearances in the minor leagues that Caglianone has to date, and Alonso had a .940 OPS in the minors.
This is early, and it’s a credit to the player that we’re even having this conversation — and a bigger credit that the Royals are actually having it. He’s forcing it more every day.
Back to the metrics for a moment, though, because I need to add some context. The Royals are going to accept some of the swing and miss with Caglianone. They have to. With power of that magnitude, it can often be a packaged deal. The baseballs he puts in play do enough damage that you can live with an uptick in swing-and-miss.
The combination of swing-and-miss and chase rate draws important scrutiny, knowing those rates will almost certainty jump after call-ups. They are common indicators of preparedness. And can we at least agree that best preparing your top prospect, a potentially significant piece of your future, to be ready for the next step is a good thing?
There’s a lot there, I know.
That’s the point.
It’s a lot more to consider than the stat line, even if the stat line is among the things to consider most.
When will the rest of the package be enough?
The numbers will never reach perfection. There is no precise threshold for the exact right metrics or even mixture of the data that will prompt his call-up. The Royals are looking at trends in the numbers as much as the exact numbers themselves, and, again, that prompts a question related to any minor-leaguer: Is he improving?
Yes, he is. The evidence comes in the last three games alone — not in the rooftop, but in opposite-field home runs and a blast off a lefty.
Caglianone will probably receive the benefit of the doubt earlier than other prospects because of his raw power. His fly balls are home runs. His batting practice sessions are a real treat.
That’s the allure.
It’s the reason for the anticipation.
The rest of the package is the reason for the wait.
Well, for now.
This story was originally published May 6, 2025 at 3:05 PM.