After Joe Thuney, Trey Smith moves, here’s where the Chiefs stand for free agency
Joe Thuney is gone.
Trey Smith will stick around.
The Chiefs have been as active — or at least as headline worthy — as any team in the NFL over the last week. They’re one of just two teams to use the franchise tag on a player. They’re the only to depart with a four-time All-Pro.
So what’s left?
Oh, just accounting for about 6,000 snaps.
The free agency period will open Wednesday, with the legal tampering period preceding it by 48 hours. Before the Chiefs make decisions on what to add — and there are some needs — they must first determine what to retain. In some cases, of course, the two go hand in hand.
It’s a long lot to manage in this particular offseason. The Chiefs’ impending free agents combined for 6,065 offensive and defensive snaps in 2024.
They can’t keep everyone — though nor should they replace everyone just because it all went poorly in New Orleans.
They’ll likely need to create some cap space with some roster conversions, but let’s keep in mind — or keep top of mind — that the salary cap is the driving force of the decisions with their high-profile free agents.
It’s not just about the player.
It’s player and price. Oh, and the need and the market.
Here’s a look at the Chiefs’ unrestricted free agents set to hit that market in a matter of days:
Justin Reid, safety
What the Chiefs should do: Let him test the market
The explanation: Scroll back up to the mention of the salary cap. We have our first relevant example.
I’ve said it before, but Reid might’ve been the most underrated player on the Chiefs defense this season. He was terrific late in the year, and he’s entering free agency at the second time at just 28 years old.
The versatility will be an attraction. He lined up in the box more than any safety in the league. He played slot cornerback a fair amount, and he still stepped back as a free safety at times too. There’s probably not a system he can’t fit.
If Reid gets paid elsewhere, and he very well could, it would be a bigger loss than people realize. But he’s likely looking at least a similar deal to the one that brought him to KC (3 years, $31.5 million). After rookie Jaden Hicks showed some late-season promise, that’s going to be a tough world for the Chiefs to compete. Add to that, safeties often reach free agency. The cupboard there is not bare.
Nick Bolton, linebacker
What the Chiefs should do: Let him test the market
The explanation: See the first couple of sentences above. It’s applicable here, too. The Chiefs would love to retain Bolton. They should. But at what price? I’ve seen some projections that have Bolton, who turns 25 on Monday, receiving a four-year deal worth $12-15 million.
That ... would be a tough buy.
Bolton has been the quarterback of the defense and terrific in the run game. His 57 stops, a PFF statistic that tallies tackles resulting in an unsuccessful play for the offense, ranked 7th in the NFL.
He’s less effective, though, as a coverage linebacker, allowing a 101.3 passer rating in his four years. Some teams might view him more as a two-down linebacker than three. If that’s the case and his price drops, I wouldn’t rule out a reunion. But it only takes one team to pay him like an every-down linebacker, because that’s what he’s been in KC.
The bottom line is the Chiefs paid Drue Tranquill a year ago, and it’s unwise to pay big money to two linebackers on a unit that should prioritize defensive lineman and cornerbacks first. Absent a weak market or a hometown discount, the Chiefs will have to make the hard decision here.
Hollywood Brown, wide receiver
What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a 1-year deal with incentives to sweeten the pot
The explanation: After missing eight games between 2022-23, Brown missed all but two last year after a rare collarbone injury on his first catch of the preseason.
There’s an extensive injury history there, and it should be factor into the Chiefs’ comfort to pay Brown.
So why bring him back at all? Well, if you watched training camp, you’d know. The snaps in camp don’t count, I realize, but there was a real connection between Brown and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. If Brown is enticed by the chance to see that through, the Chiefs can take advantage and alleviate some of the risk by luring him with some incentives based on playing time. A trio of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown could do some damage.
DeAndre Hopkins, wide receiver
What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk.
The explanation: Hopkins will be 33 in June. That’s first and foremost. But while he had his moments in Kansas City, he was always an unusual scheme fit. Mahomes throws fewer tight-window passes than any quarterback in football, per Next Gen Stats, and Hopkins thrives on contested catches. This offense, in other words, doesn’t prefer to utilize his greatest strength.
Look, I wouldn’t mind seeing an extension of that experiment — to gauge if Mahomes can unlock a different dimension to his game (and therefore the offense) with some back-shoulder throws, for example. But if that’s a direction they go — it’s unlikely — they can get younger here.
Charles Omenihu, defensive end
What the Chiefs should do: Let him test the market
The explanation: There’s going to be some pushback on this one, but Omenihu should still be considered as coming off the knee injury that robbed him of most of the season.
Why? Because after his return, he wasn’t the same player. Not really, anyway.
Omenihu had just a 7.6% pressure rate in his six-game stint, according to Next Gen Stats. For reference, he was at 12.6% during his first year in KC and 13.2% his final year with San Francisco.
He’s a motivated player, though, and if the market doesn’t develop as he hopes, the Chiefs would have reason to return to this conversation. But it’s unlikely to be a top priority.
Tershawn Wharton, defensive tackle
What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a short-term deal, but avoid a bidding war
The explanation: A bidding war? That’s relatively speaking. But Wharton will have a market. He had 6 1/2 sacks in the regular season, and then two more in the playoffs. He was a bright spot in a Super Bowl that went dark early. There will be a team comfortable offering Wharton at least a two-year contract. He is actually probably more likely to get three years than just a one-year pact.
And good for him. It would be a heck of a story for an undrafted free agent out of Missouri S&T.
But it’s deep draft class at defensive line, and it could be very likely that when pick No. 31 arrives, the top of the Chiefs board will be an interior defensive linemen. A cap-strapped team should consider what could be available at a cheaper price a month later.
Carson Wentz, quarterback
What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk
The explanation: You know the old Tom Moore saying about the backup quarterback. If Mahomes were to get injured, the Chiefs aren’t reaching their goals anyway. It’s just not a position in which they should devote a ton of resources.
I was intrigued by the Wentz signing, given he is one of the league’s most adept players in executing the quarterback sneak, but that didn’t intrigue Andy Reid, apparently.
Wentz could get a shot to compete for a starting job, which would price him well out of the Chiefs’ range.
D.J. Humphries, left tackle
What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a one-year deal
The explanation: At the NFL Scouting Combine last week, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach described a “nightmare” draft scenario in which pick No. 31 arrives, and the top players on the board are defensive linemen but the top need on the depth chart is an offensive tackle.
That’s not strictly a commentary on the draft. It’s a comment on free agency, too. The best way to avoid that scenario is to have a plan in place, even if you consider that a Plan B, and a healthier D.J. Humphries could offer that.
Kareem Hunt, running back
What the Chiefs should do: String it out until the summer
The explanation: Kareem Hunt’s revival was a great story. But the age showed. That age will begin with a ‘3’ in training camp, a dreaded number for a running back. He lacked explosion last year, particularly as the season wore on. He did, however, have terrific success in short yardage, converting 15 of 18 attempts into first downs.
The Chiefs can afford to wait and see where the depth chart is as training camp opens, and assess the need then.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, wide receiver
What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a cheaper one-year deal
The explanation: I wouldn’t break the bank to retain Smith-Schuster, but I’d be stunned if that was the requirement. There’s some value in having a veteran presence in a room that will be increasingly younger next year. Rashee Rice (24) and Xavier Worth (21) will be atop the depth chart.
Smith-Schuster, an eight-year vet, could provide insurance at a low cost. Even if I don’t think these forthcoming numbers are repeatable, I still find them noteworthy: Mahomes had a 110.6 passer rating when targeting Smith-Schuster, who also delivered 9.2 yards after the catch per reception.
Justin Watson, wide receiver
What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk
The explanation: I’ve been a bigger believer than most in Watson’s selflessness on the field creating some openings for teammates. And I just mentioned the value of having a veteran or two in the wide receiver room. But among the 118 receivers targeted at least 30 times last season, Watson ranked 114th in yards per route run.
Samaje Perine, running back
What the Chiefs should do: Let him test the market
The explanation: There might not be much of one for Perine, who was cut out of the Broncos training camp and turns 30 in September. Perine provided some value, catching 28 passes, including the game-sealing play in the AFC Championship Game. But Perine is also proof that running backs of his sort can be obtained late, even after training camp.
Derrick Nnadi, defensive tackle
What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk
The explanation: The Chiefs have all of one interior defensive linemen on the roster who played in Super Bowl LIX, but Nnadi hasn’t graded well for three years now. He’s a three-time champion, but it’s time.
Mecole Hardman, wide receiver
What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk
The explanation: As I mentioned at the top, the Chiefs can’t just let everyone go. They do need some depth. But they obtained Hardman in June last year, and they can afford to wait and see how the draft and free agency unfold before turning to him on the edge of camp, if need be.
Mike Pennel, defensive tackle
What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a one-year deal at the veteran minimum
The explanation: Pennel will be 34 in a couple of months. He’s nearing the end. But he did provide a need for the Chiefs a year ago. He was part of one of the league’s most-improved run defenses. He’s double-teamed quite frequently on run plays, which shows you defenses are still aware of what he can do. This wouldn’t be expensive.
James Winchester, long snapper
What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a one-year deal
The explanation: We haven’t heard the name of James Winchester in games for a long time now.
That’s a good thing.
It is worth noting, though, that he will be 36 in August.
Joshua Uche, edge
What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk
The explanation: The Chiefs were interested to see how a smaller but quicker edge rusher might fit into the scheme.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, apparently, was not.
Uche couldn’t even dress on game days. This is an easy one.
Jody Fortson, tight end
What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk
The explanation: If the need for depth arrives in training camp, Fortson will likely still be available after coming off a season-ending injury. If he’s back in 2025, the Chiefs can certainly afford to wait to make that call.
Marlon Tuipulotu, defensive tackle
What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk
The explanation: He played all of 61 defensive snaps after arriving from Philadelphia. They can invite him to camp as part of the 90-man roster, but he won’t be a priority in March.