Bills or Ravens? Here’s who Chiefs could (and should want to) play in AFC Championship
The Chiefs are in the AFC Championship Game.
Again.
A 23-14 win against the Texans on Saturday secured the Chiefs a seventh straight appearance in the AFC title game, the second-longest streak in NFL history.
They’ll trade one rematch for another.
Bills. Or Ravens?
There are some obvious similarities between the two division winners. There are the MVP quarterbacks. They are the terrific running games. It should go without saying, but you don’t get easy games this time of year.
Or last year. The Chiefs had to beat the Bills and Ravens in last year’s postseason.
For what it’s worth: The Ravens are favored 1 1/2 points in Buffalo, so it’s slightly more likely they’ll be the team traveling to Kansas City.
But let’s take a look at what a Chiefs matchup with either team might entail. (The statistics and data on each team is comprised of a combination of FTN Fantasy, Next Gen Stats and PFF.)
Buffalo Bills (13-4, No. 2 seed)
What to know: It all starts with Josh Allen, but there’s a misconception to think that’s all the Bills are.
They actually ran the football at the fifth-highest frequency in the NFL over the regular season. James Cook tied O.J. Simpson’s franchise record with 16 rushing touchdowns. But a lot of that run game comes from Allen, too. He has scrambled on 19% of his dropbacks and also run 27 touchdowns over the last two years.
None of that is news to the Chiefs. Allen is the only quarterback to beat Patrick Mahomes this season, a game he clinched with his legs on a fourth-down play, not his arm. The Chiefs, by the way, have allowed the third most yards on quarterback scrambles this year.
Allen’s dual-threat ability underscores the importance of defensive linemen staying in their rushing lanes, but that’s easier said than done — Buffalo has one of the best offensive lines in the league. Couple that with Allen’s league-best sack avoidance numbers, and he has been sacked 14 times all season. Remarkable.
Just as they implement their quarterback in the running game, the Bills love to involve their running backs in the passing game — even on downfield throws. It’s notable, then, that the Chiefs rank third in DVOA coverage of running backs.
On the other side of the football? The Bills have shown some cracks, particularly in the secondary. They have struggled all year defending top wide receivers, ranking 28th in DVOA against opposing No. 1s and 29th in DVOA against opposing No. 2s.
That helps explain why they refrain from blitzing— only 20.2% of the snaps this year — and drop five defensive backs into coverage more than any team in football. They need the help on the back end.
Up front, the Bills led the league in stuff percentage of opposing runs, but oddly, they gave up the highest rate of explosive rushes too. How do you explain that? Well, once you get by the first level, they struggled to tackle at the next. They had the fifth most missed tackles in the league.
That’s a factor in the passing game too — the Bills allowed the most yards after catch of any playoff team. The Chiefs offense produced the third most yards after catch in the league. It’s a spot they’d undoubtedly look to exploit.
Baltimore Ravens (12-5, No. 3 seed)
What to know: The hottest team in football — you know, other than the one in Kansas City.
The Ravens are the DVOA darlings for a second straight season, a metric that measures teams on a per play basis, accounting for difficulty of opponent and other items.
But you don’t need analytics to say this: The Ravens offense is dominant. They averaged 6.85 yards per play, which was 0.62 better than any other team.
They’re steady. And they’re explosive. They had 88 explosive rushes this season — 15.9% of their attempts — which was 12 more than second place. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry combined for 3,000 rushing yards.
So how did this team lose five games? Well, the defense struggled. Early. Not as of late.
Since Week 11, when they moved safety Kyle Hamilton to the back end, Baltimore’s defense ranked first in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per opposition dropback. And they also allowed a league-low 3.6 yards per carry over that same time frame. To be clear, the schedule provided some assistance on those numbers.
As the Chiefs showed last year, the Ravens are a team that needs to play from ahead. And they typically do. The Ravens did not trail by double digits once during last year’s regular season, but when the Chiefs got a 17-7 halftime lead in the AFC Championship Game, Baltimore escaped its run-first game plan, a form of panic that justifiably drew criticism.
Wouldn’t bet on that mistake again. The Chiefs would need to be prepared for a heavy dose of rushing attempts, and that’s the area in which the defense has vastly improved, allowing just 4.14 yards per carry (7th in NFL).
Jackson’s legs give a lot of teams fits, but the Chiefs in particular. He ran for 122 yards in the season opener and has rushed for 79.8 yards per game in six meetings.
This story was originally published January 18, 2025 at 6:38 PM.