Who the Chiefs could play next week in NFL playoffs — and who they should want to play
The NFL playoffs are here, and same as a year ago, Kansas City is enduring the effects of some harsh winter weather from the outset.
Oh, but a key difference this year: The Chiefs don’t have to endure it.
After beating the Dolphins in record-cold temperatures last year, the Chiefs can kick up their feet and watch the opening round of the NFL playoffs on TV.
With interest.
Their Divisional Round playoff opponent next week will be determined by the outcomes of the three games set for this weekend: Denver (the No. 7 seed) at Buffalo (2); Pittsburgh (6) at Baltimore (3); and L.A. Chargers (5) at Houston (4).
You should recognize all six. The Chiefs played every member of the AFC playoff field during the regular season.
As the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs will play the lowest remaining seed on Jan. 18 or 19, which rules out any possibility of seeing the Bills or Ravens until a potential AFC Championship Game matchup.
The other four are in the mix.
If the Broncos beat the Bills, it will be settled — they would travel to Kansas City the following week. If the Steelers are the lowest seed remaining, they’ll head to KC.
But if the Bills and Ravens hold serve at home, as the odds suggest they will, the Chiefs will face the winner of the Chargers-Texans game, which will be played Saturday afternoon.
The odds of each? That’s included in the capsules below, calculated based on the implied odds from the betting market. The statistics included are compiled from a combination of data available via FTN Fantasy, Next Gen Stats and PFF.
Recognizing there are no guarantees in the NFL, I’ve ordered the teams by what should be the Chiefs’ preference for their next opponent.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, No. 6 seed)
Possibility of Chiefs’ Divisional Round opponent: 16%
What to know: We saw this matchup just a couple of weeks ago, and we know how it turned out. The playoffs could not come at a much worse time for the Steelers, who were punching above their statistical weight for three months before the luck-factor odds (notably, turnover margin) caught up to them. They’ve lost four in a row, and while the offense has taken a lot of heat for it, it’s the free-fall of the defense that ought to be most concerning. They have allowed 27 points per game over those four losses. They can pressure the quarterback with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith on the edges, but they are susceptible to quick throws and have questions at cornerback, as the Chiefs demonstrated on Christmas Day.
The Pittsburgh offense doesn’t instill much fear, except for one spot: the deep shot. While Russell Wilson hasn’t yet adjusted (or even accepted) that his legs aren’t what they once were — he takes far too many sacks — he is one of only two quarterbacks who has completed at least half of his downfield attempts. Some 9.3% of the Steelers’ completions turn into explosive plays, the seventh-highest rate in the league. That’s an area where the Chiefs have shown some blind spots — they’ve allowed the ninth most explosive passes in the league.
Houston Texans (10-7, No. 4 seed)
Possibility of Chiefs’ Divisional Round opponent: 26%
What to know: It still feels as though the Texans’ reputation is benefiting from the surprise success of a year ago, and that’s particularly true of quarterback C.J. Stroud and the offense.
This offense is just plain bad.
The Texans are 31st in the NFL in rushing success rate, ahead of only the Raiders. A defender reached running back Joe Mixon before the line of scrimmage on more than half of his rushing attempts, per NGS, the highest rate of his career.
The passing game hasn’t picked up the slack, ranking 25th in pass DVOA. They relied on the downfield passing game last year, when Stroud finished second in the league with 1,111 yards on 20-plus yard throws, to go along with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. This year, though, those deep passing numbers have dropped to 696 yards, four touchdowns and six picks. There’s a reason for that, and it’s not all on Stroud. The offensive line is perhaps the worst in football.
So how are the Texans here? They’re dominant defensively. They are first in the NFL in pass rush win rate, per ESPN Analytics, which is why they rarely blitz. They simply don’t need to bring extra rushers, and the ability to shift those extra numbers in coverage has logically led to a lot of success in defending the pass (No. 3 in the NFL). They’re just as good against the run, by the way.
It’s why some of us anticipated a lower-scoring game when the Texans visited GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium a few weeks ago.
Denver Broncos (10-7, No. 7 seed)
Possibility of Chiefs’ Divisional Round opponent: 20%
What to know: The defense can flat-out get after it. The Broncos allowed only 4.93 yards per play, second in the NFL. They play a ton of man coverage (most in the league), which is a tad easier to do when you employ Patrick Surtain II, the presumptive favorite to win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. The Chiefs were hot-and-cold against man coverage, but they did pace the NFL in yards after catch in those situations. So there’s a formula there.
The Broncos’ game-plan is quite simple: They try to beat you up front on both sides of the ball.
For all of the attention on rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who can make plays with his legs too, the offensive line is still why they’re here. The Broncos ranked first in pass rush and run block win rate, per ESPN.
That physical style of play — coupled with the questions about the Chiefs’ offensive line and defensive pass rush — is why I’ve ranked the Steelers and Texans as preferred matchups to Denver.
L.A. Chargers (11-6, No. 5 seed)
Possibility of Chiefs’ Divisional Round opponent: 38%
What to know: It’s kind of funny. The Chargers replaced a defensive-minded head coach with a former quarterback in Jim Harbaugh, and their defense took off, allowing the fewest points per game in the league. Go figure.
The Chargers were aided by the fifth-easiest schedule, and it’s notable they went just 2-5 against playoff teams, with both wins coming against the Broncos. They’ve struggled against top-tier teams, and the Chiefs would certainly qualify as one of those.
But in the 16 games that Mahomes started, the Chiefs’ second and third lowest point totals of the season came against the Chargers.
The reason: The Chargers are strong in the areas the Chiefs typically like to exploit. L.A. has asked safety Derwin James to operate as a slot cornerback, and he’s been terrific in the role; the Chiefs run a lot of offense through their slot receivers. The Chargers are also second in DVOA in defending short throws; the Chiefs attempt a higher-percentage of short throws than any team in the league.
The Chargers are a heavy run team and a play-action team, but the Chiefs were one of the five best teams in the NFL at defending the run.
Still, Justin Herbert is the best quarterback of these four teams, and if you couple that with their No. 1 scoring defense, the Chargers present the toughest possible matchup. And as you can see, they also represent the most likely Divisional Round game.
It wasn’t an easy path a year ago. The Chargers’ coming to KC next week would make for the start of another difficult path.
But who said a three-peat should be easy, right?