After beating Miami, here’s who the Chiefs could play next week & when we’ll know
The Chiefs are moving on.
Yet stuck in place.
The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 late Saturday inside GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Dominated from start to finish, really, in sending Miami home.
And now they wait on a challenger.
The Chiefs will either head to Buffalo to face the Bills — which would mark the first road playoff game of Patrick Mahomes’ career — or they’ll stay home to play the upstart Texans.
The Steelers-Bills game got moved to Monday because of, ironically, the weather — though it’s notable snow, not strictly the cold, that prompted the move.
If the Bills win, they’ll host the Chiefs next weekend, presumably a Sunday kickoff. If the Steelers win, the Chiefs get the Texans.
I analyzed each opponent earlier this weekend. But for your convenience, you can find that information below:
Buffalo Bills
Possibility of Chiefs’ next opponent: 82%
What to know: The reason the Chiefs path is probably tougher than it’s ever been with Patrick Mahomes? This is a big part of it. If the Chiefs get past Miami, the odds above show they will likely have to travel to Buffalo — which would mark Patrick Mahomes’ first career road playoff game.
The Bills are rated as the third best team in football, per FTN DVOA. Josh Allen has played about as well as any quarterback in the league, finishing second in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play, according to Sumer Sports. He had the most interceptions in the AFC (18), but his turnover-worthy play percentage actually ranked in the middle of the pack. The Chiefs finished second in the NFL with 57 sacks, but Allen is statistically better than anyone at avoiding sacks. Only 10.3% of his pressures turn into sacks, per PFF. (Mahomes is second lowest at 11.2%, by the way.)
Oh, and they’re pretty good on the other side of the ball. The pass defense is just inside the top-10 by most metrics, but if there’s a spot you beat them, the numbers show it’s down the field. The Bills have struggled defending the back end, which would present an intriguing matchup for a Chiefs team that have only rarely connected on downfield shots.
In fact, there’s a lot within this potential matchup that would force the Chiefs to play unlike they’ve played most of the season. The best ways to attack the Bills are in the running game and deep in the passing game. The Chiefs have been pass-heavy more than run-heavy, and Mahomes has the shortest average depth of target in the league.
Houston Texans
Possibility of Chiefs’ next opponent: 18%
What to know: The accelerated pace of the Texans’ rebuild – aided by the easiest schedule in the AFC, though, I’ll mention— points in one direction.
C.J. Stroud.
He had one of the best rookie seasons of any quarterback in NFL history. He has particularly preference of attacking the field: Deep. Stroud finished with an average depth of target of 9.4 yards, the highest in the league. Which played true to form in their 45-14 blowout against the Browns in the Wild Card Round earlier Saturday. Stroud, who had a near-perfect rating, needed only 16 completions, in part because three of them were downfield shots.
His favorite target all season, Nico Collins, is second in the NFL in yards per route run, per PFF; and he trails only Chiefs rookie Rashee Rice in yards after the catch per reception.
It would be strength on strength, in that case. The Texans don’t run the ball effectively, forcing them into pass-heavy looks. Well, the Chiefs defend the pass quite well — they allowed the third-fewest yards per pass play and finished with the highest sack rate in the league, the only team turning more than 10% of dropbacks into sacks.
The Chiefs might like their offensive matchup here. The Texans are far weaker in the secondary than they are up front — 23rd in pass defense DVOA and second in rush DVOA. There’s one particular area the Chiefs would really want to exploit — the Texans allowed the second most catches and yards to tight ends of any team in the league, per FTN.
This story was originally published January 13, 2024 at 10:35 PM.