Three things the Chiefs still need to improve if they want excel in 2nd half of season
Nine months after Harrison Butker’s game-winning kick split the uprights in Glendale, Arizona, the Chiefs and Eagles are scheduled to meet in a different location — but in a very similar spot.
It’s still the best against the best.
Each of those two points — a look back at the last game or the anticipation of the next one Monday night — is receiving a lot of attention this week.
But some note the distinction between the two. Like, say, those involved in the game.
While Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni, for example, said he encouraged his players to use the Super Bowl as motivation “if it’s good,” he quickly moved to the following point: “If we’re going to get up more for the Kansas City Chiefs because they beat us in the Super Bowl, what the heck was I doing the previous nine weeks? I’m not getting up for those games?”
It’s his way of saying something that his veteran leader, center Jason Kelce, basically repeated on the weekly podcast he does with his brother Travis, the Chiefs tight end. Which is this: These kinds of high-profile rematches are occasionally relevant inside locker rooms, but they tend to be made into a bigger deal outside of them.
Especially now. Both teams are coming off their bye, which theoretically should’ve allowed their focus to be internal, not external, even if the external has the allure of a Super Bowl rematch. The Chiefs’ record is where it needs to be, 7-2 and atop the AFC standings, as the hopes of their perceived top challengers (such as Buffalo and Cincinnati) grow dimmer.
Even so, there are some things that needed to be addressed during the bye week. Or at least tweaked. What’s most unusual about this list? It’s all about the Chiefs’ offense.
In that realm, here are three avenues in which a Chiefs team with Super Bowl aspirations needs to find some solutions over the second half of the season.
1. The short yardage
At some point Monday night, the Brotherly Shove, Tush Push or whatever moniker you prefer for the Eagles’ well-executed quarterback sneak will be a topic of debate.
But what it really highlights: The Chiefs don’t have that luxury. They refuse to even try that luxury. Which has exacerbated an issue that predates this season.
While the Eagles lead the NFL in short yardage (third or fourth down, 1-2 yards to go) over the past two seasons, the Chiefs sit 20th.
If you’ve come to this space before, you’ve read this next sentence: The problem isn’t that the Chiefs have been too cute on short yardage, as the narrative would have you believe; it’s that they feel they have to be cute in order to win in those spots, and they just might be right about that.
They have converted only 62% of their short-yardage opportunities since the start of last season — 62.3% when Patrick Mahomes throws the ball, and 61.5% when they try to run. The two options are equally below average for a team that has been exceptionally above average on all other third downs.
It’s like a dominant basketball team that can’t make free throws. You hope it doesn’t bite them in a game that really counts. It might if it’s not corrected.
Which leads me to an uncomfortable suggestion.
I do think the quarterback sneak is somewhere in the Chiefs’ playbook, perhaps saved for the most important of circumstances. But I’d argue it would be most effective for the Chiefs to run it in a relatively meaningless spot — forcing the opposition to at least think it might be coming and therefore have to account for it.
It would help alter the Chiefs’ success on all the other calls if the sneak had been in the recent Rolodex. Just once. That’s all.
2. The not-so-short yardage
OK, OK. I’ve talked a lot about that first item.
And it’s overshadowed the next, which is almost the exact opposite of short yardage.
The deep pass.
The Chiefs are one of the least successful teams in football when throwing the ball downfield. Let’s re-phrase that: The team that employs Patrick Mahomes as its quarterback is one of the least successful teams in football when throwing the ball downfield.
It was the 2020 season that we really began to analyze opposing defenses filling the back end of the secondary and forcing the Chiefs to nickel and dime their way down the field. It was 2022 that the Chiefs first had to play without one of the league’s best deep threats in Tyreek Hill.
Still a thing today.
But worse.
It’s 2023 that has proven their least efficient year when throwing the ball deep — and it’s not strictly because of a lack of opportunity (though there is a lack of opportunity). They’re still trying to throw the ball deep.
They’re not connecting.
On passes that travel at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, Mahomes is just 12 of 36 for 403 yards, one touchdown and five interceptions, with data collection from Pro Football Focus. That represents Mahomes’ fewest completions per game, fewest yards per game, fewest touchdowns per game and most interceptions per game on deep throws in his career. His 46.2 passer rating on 20-plus yard attempts is better than only Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
It’s bad.
Some of that is forced by the opposition’s schemes. Some of it falls on the Chiefs’ receivers. But some of it is on the quarterback, too. He’s missed some shots.
We’ve talked a lot about those reasons for the Chiefs’ offensive downturn — which still finds them conveniently above the middle of the pack — and they’re plentiful. The wide receiver-quarterback relationship probably tops that list, but it’s not the only item on it.
But this is one effect of the list that we’ve overlooked.
“You have to adjust to what defenses are giving you and what they’re not giving you,” Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy said. “I think when you look at it right now with our downfield numbers, we’re still taking shots, right? The biggest thing we want, however it is, we want to be able to be a little bit more efficient with those numbers. You still need to keep defenses honest, however you do it.”
3. When the Chiefs’ offense really goes cold
The oddest first-half storyline?
The second half.
Or halves.
Hard to believe this is true, but the Chiefs are the NFL’s lowest-scoring team in the second half of games. They average just 5.9 points over the third and fourth quarters. That’s a full point lower than every team except the Arizona Cardinals, who are at 6.0. Miami, by contrast, is at 14.9 points per second half.
What makes this so unusual? Well, the Chiefs are second in the NFL in first-half points at 17.2 per game.
I’m actually not quite sure where to place the solution for this one — you could certainly point to scripted plays vs. non-scripted plays — but it’s something the coaches should know. And maybe they have identified it.
“I give credit to Fraz, because he does all that,” head coach Andy Reid said, referring to Mike Frazier, the team’s statistical analysis coordinator. “He’s on top of all that all the time. I can’t tell you exactly why. He probably could, but I’m not going to let him talk to you.”
This story was originally published November 19, 2023 at 5:30 AM.