What the Vegas betting line says about the Chiefs-Broncos game Thursday night
An identical storyline has provided the backdrop for Chiefs-Broncos games since, well, before Patrick Mahomes even entered the equation.
The winning streak, of course.
The one-sided rivalry stands at 15 straight to the Chiefs, though they’ve accumulated a few of those in pretty bizarre fashion. Even so, it probably goes without saying that the Vegas betting line indicates that number will climb with relative ease Thursday night.
The Chiefs are favored by 10 1/2 points, their second consecutive home game with a double-digit line. (They quite easily covered that one against the Bears three weeks ago.)
While you might look at the Broncos’ 1-4 record and assume they’re a similar team as what they’ve been recently, they’ve actually arrived in last place in the division with a different mode of transportation.
For the better.
And for the much, much worse.
In his first year under head coach Sean Payton, quarterback Russell Wilson has improved — albeit a low bar — and the Broncos offense has come along with him for the, ahem, ride. They are operating like a middle-of-the-pack unit, and while you can look at the traditional metrics to see some improvements, one of the most important areas is his sack avoidance.
His pressure-to-sack percentage, second-worst in football a year ago, has dropped 7%, per data available on PFF. Wilson must look to get the ball out of his hands more quickly as he creeps into his mid-30s.
But what in the world happened to the Broncos defense? They are ranked dead last in DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. It would be notable regardless, but it’s baffling when considering they were a top-10 unit by most metrics just last season.
What gives? Well, a lot in the back end, apparently. The Broncos are the worst coverage team in the league, graded at 41.2 per PFF a year after receiving a 89.3 grade in the same category.
That’s a free fall that makes for an enticing matchup for Mahomes. But the Chiefs have opened the season with more than a few enticing matchups for their passing game, and it’s still been rather inconsistent.
And that passing game will encounter one wrinkle, as The Star’s beat writer, Jesse Newell, noted in his prediction: The weather forecast could be a factor, the wind more than anything. If you ask most quarterbacks, the wind bothers their throws more than precipitation. There could be some heavy gusts inside Arrowhead Stadium.
And although the Chiefs have won 15 straight, the previous three (and four of the past five) have been one-score games.
The betting line: Chiefs by 10 1/2
The pick: Chiefs 30, Broncos 20