What the betting line says about the Chiefs-Jets matchup Sunday night in New York
While literally every NFL prediction starts with an assessment of the quarterbacks, the Chiefs’ trip to play the Jets on Sunday is about three of them.
The two who will play.
And the one who won’t.
The Jets-Chiefs matchup looks a heck of a lot different than it did a month ago, when the Vegas oddsmakers marked it as the most difficult challenge on Kansas City’s schedule.
Uh, about that ...
The Chiefs are 8 1/2-point favorites, a massive swing from the preseason, because, well, the Jets have a massive swing at quarterback. Aaron Rodgers was injured in the opener, as you know, and Zach Wilson is not only a less than adequate replacement, it’s hard to argue he’s an adequate NFL quarterback at at all. The Jets have scored only 20 points in Wilson’s two starts.
Still, while it would be easy to put all of the blame on Wilson — though you can put a lot of it — the Jets’ issues stretch beyond him. The also have one of the league’s worst pass-blocking units through three weeks.
They are better with the run, which means all Willie Gay did this week was speak truth, not provide trash talk. But I digress.
If the Jets are going to have any chance Sunday night, it’s going to be because the defense not only gets some stops but some key turnovers too. They’ve won with Wilson once, but they intercepted Josh Allen three times in an overtime win against the Bills. Allen is turnover prone. Patrick Mahomes is not.
And as I mentioned earlier, this comes down to the quarterbacks.
The line: Chiefs -8.5
The pick: Chiefs 24, Jets 13
PLUS TWO PROPS
1. Rashee Rice, over 25.5 receiving yards
It wasn’t an accident that Rice totaled more snaps last week than he did in the first two combined. He also just so happened to respond with his best game — five catches for 59 yards. While the Jets’ secondary presents the toughest matchup the Chiefs have seen, there’s a point to get Rice more involved.
2. Travis Kelce, anytime touchdown
It’s not about the stuff off the field.
Really.
As mentioned previously, the Jets secondary is quite good, but that’s because Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed lock down the outside. They have struggled to defend tight ends allowing 56.3 yards per game, fifth most in the league. While they’ve hinted at using Gardner on Kelce, I’ll believe it when I see it — especially in the red zone.