What to make of the Chiefs’ wide receiver struggles, and what it means for the future
It was half an hour after the season-opening loss Thursday when Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes stood before the media, and what would garner the most attention is that he considered it embarrassing to lose — that he always considers embarrassing to lose.
A spicy quote reflected the person.
It did not, however, reflect the crux of a 21-20 loss to the Lions.
That came earlier, nonchalantly and perhaps even not intentionally, during ongoing questions about the receivers, such as Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice and Skyy Moore.
On the last person in that group, Mahomes said, “We didn’t have that connection. We missed connections here and there. But (that’s) something you have to continue to work on.”
Keep that quote in mind as we progress here.
The receivers were a problem in the season-opening loss, but the most pressing question in Kansas City is whether they will continue to be a problem.
Truth? The Chiefs played without their best receiver, not unlike a Major League bullpen being asked to hold a one-run lead over multiple innings absent its closer.
Yes, Travis Kelce is technically a tight end, but he lines up off the line for 62% of his snaps. Sure, it’s not an excuse for their own execution, but the final product probably looks just a tad different with him in the lineup.
But another truth? There are a couple of concerns, even beyond just the astonishing number of dropped pass.
Although I was among those least distressed about the receivers heading into training camp, it’s hard to ignore the recent signals. For starters, the Chiefs kept seven receivers on the roster for the first time in Andy Reid’s tenure, when they usually deem five to be enough.
And despite the added depth, they still rushed Toney into the lineup for last week’s opener. You saw the results. Three drops. (By one metric, those three plays cost the Chiefs nearly 11 points, given that one of them fell into the hands of Lions rookie Brian Branch for an interception he returned for a touchdown.) On Monday, Reid called Toney’s outing uncharacteristic, and then took the blame for why.
“I probably put him in bad positions — in primary positions — there, especially late in the game. He’s still getting his legs back,” he said.
The Chiefs had six other receivers, all of whom completed training camp and preseason games healthy, but they still felt it necessary to squeeze Toney into the lineup on short notice — after he missed all of camp and all of the preseason, leaving his entire preparation for Week 1 to consist of a some practices on game week.
Plus, as Reid said, they didn’t simply mix Toney into the game to get him in a better spot for future weeks. They asked him to play “primary positions” late in the fourth quarter. Does that sound like a team that’s currently confident in its six other options? It felt like the Chiefs thought they needed Toney to play as much as they wanted him to play.
That’s the first sign of concern — before kickoff even arrived.
And it came from the team itself.
The Chiefs’ wide receiver rotation
The second point is about the in-game effects. I criticized the Chiefs for choosing to keep seven receivers out of camp because the data demonstrates they haven’t had much of a need for six, let alone seven. Sure seemed like they’d be stashing someone on the roster, only to never play him.
What I hadn’t considered, though: They’d actually follow through and use all seven. It could produce even worse consequences than occupying an extra roster spot.
We’re spending a lot of time wondering how forcing Toney into the lineup affected his performance, but how might it have affected the entire operation?
The Chiefs wide receiver rotation resembled a training camp practice in St. Joseph. They asked a total of eight receivers and tight ends to run at least 11 routes in the game. For comparison’s sake, that number in last year’s season opener was just five. They never reached eight in any game in 2022 — you know, a Super Bowl season. Heck, they only reached seven once, and by the way, that was a game against the Titans in which they dropped seven passes. Maybe that’s a coincidence. Maybe it’s not.
Either way, it’s fair to wonder how much of a culprit an expansive rotation had on a group that never looked in rhythm Thursday. Scroll back to that Mahomes quote. “We didn’t have that connection,” he said.
Should that come as a huge surprise with so many moving parts? Would we expect any team (in any sport) to reach its peak rhythm while subbing at a rate like it never has in the past?
The Chiefs ask a lot of their quarterback, and a large chunk of those demands come after the snap. Much of Mahomes’ decision-making process post-snap involves knowing how the receivers on the field run routes but also how they see defenses. They’re not all alike. Mahomes acknowledged that is the greatest challenge posed by new receivers; it’s why he’s held his own mini-camp, of sorts, in the summer.
Yet the Chiefs effectively kept their quarterback on his toes with a never-ending wave of substitutions.
Look, the receivers are probably not going to be that bad again in the final 16 weeks. Kelce will help. The dropped passes will regress to the mean.
But the Chiefs are stuck in a weird spot here. As they try to speed up the learning curve for several players new (or new-ish) to the team, they’re limiting the number of available snaps. It’s hard to expedite chemistry with the quarterback.
On one pass to Toney last week, for example, Mahomes stared as though he was waiting to see if Toney would read the defensive secondary in the same manner he was seeing it. Toney kept drifting, and Mahomes finally fired, but a defender got his hands on it.
The genesis of the Mahomes-Travis Kelce connection would’ve shown up in that play. They’ve built that with time. Kelce would’ve sat down in the opening, and Mahomes would’ve fired before he did, knowing that’s how he’d see the play.
This isn’t a question of the talent of the receivers. It’s the need for the connection to catch up to the talent. It certainly still can.
That’s just where they’re in the tight spot that I mentioned. Rice, Toney and Moore have higher ceilings that some of their counterparts in the room — but they’re among those still trying to develop some rhythm with the quarterback. They trust the veterans. They like the upside of the youth. Therefore, they all play.
It’s a short-term versus long-term proposition, and the Chiefs are trying to walk the wire of both. They might have enough talent with the quarterback to fight through the growing pains and reap the rewards of them later.
But there will be some hiccups along the way.
Or at least some missed connections.
This story was originally published September 13, 2023 at 6:00 AM.