Why the Kansas City Chiefs’ 2023 schedule is harder than you’ll hear it is
Maybe the Chiefs caught a break with their 2023 schedule.
A one-year reprieve.
That’s what the traditional strength-of-schedule formulas want you to believe — that after opening last season with one of the hardest slates in the NFL on paper, the Chiefs have fallen back to the middle of the pack in 2023. So, hey, maybe the path toward repeating as a Super Bowl champion will be easier than winning the thing last year.
But there’s one problem with those traditional models.
They’re dead wrong.
Always.
But particularly about this year’s Chiefs.
Kansas City is not in the middle of the pack but rather actually has one of the most difficult schedules in football this season — a lot more difficult than it did a year ago — regardless of what those traditional strength-of-schedule rankings might suggest.
Really. Google it. You will find result after result, even from notable websites and news organizations, ranking the Chiefs’ 2023 slate as the 16th most difficult; they calculate the combined 2022 winning percentage of the 17 opponents to arrive at the conclusion.
The problems with using those rankings are quite obvious — they tie a team’s current value to what is actually last year’s value, and as a nice bonus, the only metric they use is win-loss record.
In the small sample size of the NFL, the record tells part of the story, to be sure, but it just as surely it does not explain the full story. (That’s why analytical sites like Football Outsiders have become dependable, diving deeper into team evaluation on a play-by-play basis to help determine how good they really are.)
Still, even that would have its problems if we’re using last year’s figures alone. Should we judge this year’s Jets, who added quarterback Aaron Rodgers, based on how Zach Wilson played with the franchise last season? Of course not. The Chiefs’ Week 4 trip to play the Jets on Sunday Night Football got a lot more difficult after the Rodgers trade.
So how do we incorporate the fuller picture of what a team looks like in the present tense? Well, there’s one metric that certainly includes that in all of its models.
The betting market.
That just so happens to be what demonstrates that the Chiefs have just about as tough of a draw as anyone in 2023, which opens with a home date against the Lions to kick off the NFL season on Sept. 7.
If you calculate the Vegas win projections for every opponent, the Chiefs’ schedule is actually the third most difficult in football, rating behind only the Patriots (most difficult) and Bills (second hardest), according to data compiled by Sharp Football Analysis. The historical data, compiled by the same site, shows a correlation with this formula — one that is completely absent from the traditionally-used strength-of-schedule ratings that circulate this time of year.
In case you’re wondering, the Raiders are fourth hardest, Chargers seventh and Broncos 13th.
The Super Bowl champions shouldn’t have it easy, of course. Part of the reward of their AFC West division championship is a first-place schedule. But they actually did end up having it easy a year ago. Largely due to the division shortcomings, the Chiefs had the fourth-softest blueprint in football last season, which aided their 14-3 record that secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed and eventually home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
There would have to be some similar surprises — some similar opponent shortcomings — to catch that same break. The betting markets don’t see it happening.
That’s the broad picture.
A dig into the finer points shows a couple other things working against the Chiefs, albeit on a much more minimal basis. For starters, they are making a Week 9 trip to Frankfurt, Germany, to play the Dolphins. Not only are they giving up a home game for the trip abroad, but teams playing in the international game have seen some fallout on the back end. Since 2018, teams playing in Europe are just 5-15 in their following game after returning stateside, even though most of them receive a bye. It’s too small a sample size to be overwhelming, but there’s a trend forming.
A trend, though, that the Chiefs bucked eight years ago, I should point out. In 2015, after beating the Lions at Wembley Stadium in November, the Chiefs didn’t lose again for the remainder of the regular season, part of a 10-game winning streak that eventually led to the first playoff victory in 23 seasons.
Nothing says they can’t do that again.
The data just suggests it will be more difficult this time.
Some other standout notes on the Chiefs 2023 schedule:
• It’s rare to be surprised by a schedule announcement, but have to say I didn’t expect Tyreek Hill’s return to Arrowhead Stadium to be squashed by the Chiefs-Dolphins being the game plucked for Germany. One more reminder to be cautious of way-ahead-of-time schedule leaks, by the way.
• The Chiefs drew a Christmas game against the Raiders — because what better fit for the holiday season than a rivalry of hatred — but they’re probably not thrilled that falls on a Monday. It will make for a short week against the Bengals in Week 17, a date that could have some top-of-the-AFC seeding at stake. A year ago, teams playing with less rest than their opponents were 47-56 in the NFL. Again, it’s not decisive. But it’s not nothing.
• The Chiefs have six prime-time games, including the season opener. They have only two noon kickoffs in 18 weeks, and one of them is the aforementioned Christmas Day game with the Raiders. There’s perhaps no better example of the draw quarterback Patrick Mahomes has become.
CHIEFS SCHEDULE
Week 1: vs. Lions (Thursday Night Football, Sept. 7)
Week 2: at Jaguars
Week 3: vs. Bears
Week 4: at Jets (Sunday Night Football)
Week 5: at Vikings
Week 6: vs. Broncos (Thursday Night Football)
Week 7: vs. Chargers
Week 8: at Broncos
Week 9: vs. Dolphins (in Frankfurt, Germany)
Week 10: Bye week
Week 11: vs. Eagles (Monday Night Football)
Week 12: at Raiders
Week 13: at Packers (Sunday Night Football)
Week 14: vs. Bills
Week 15: at Patriots (Monday Night Football)
Week 16: vs. Raiders (Christmas Day)
Week 17: vs. Bengals
Week 18: at Chargers