Here’s what the Vegas odds say about the Chiefs-Jaguars playoff game Saturday in KC
On a mid-November day in Kansas City, the Chiefs arrived at a point in their season that felt like a reprieve from the league’s most difficult schedule. And sure enough, they scored the game’s initial 20 points, and cruised to a double-digit win.
To be fair, the Chiefs made their share of mistakes that afternoon, but quarterback Patrick Mahomes rolled for 331 yards passing and four touchdowns. And frankly, the Jacksonville Jaguars were not good enough to make the mistakes matter enough.
Which is all to say that game didn’t have the feel of a playoff preview.
But, hey, here we are.
The Jaguars have lost just once since, taking advantage of a light schedule to close out the regular season — and they erased a 27-point deficit a week ago against the Chargers for the right to travel to Arrowhead Stadium for this weekend’s AFC Divisional Round.
There are still some non-believers, though. Like those who typically know best: the market.
The Chiefs are favored by 8 1/2 points against the visiting Jaguars on Saturday.
You’ve probably heard a lot this week about how the Jaguars are a completely different team than the one the Chiefs beat up in November. And there’s some truth to that.
But just some.
The betting line in this game is actually only one point narrower than their regular season meeting.
The Jaguars offense has started to click with head coach Doug Pederson in his first season, getting the most out of Trevor Lawrence to date. But the Chiefs are still a far superior team, and their biggest advantage lines up perfectly with the Jaguars’ most glaring weakness. The Jaguars pass defense is rated as third-worst in football, using Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. More apparent, they are the league’s worst team at defending tight ends, Football Outsiders’ metrics show.
Turns out, the Chiefs are OK in the passing game and decent at tight end, too. It’s a game in which the offense should roll if they provide Mahomes enough time to throw — because the Jaguars’ strength is up front. Josh Allen had the seventh most pressures among edge rushers this season, per Pro Football Focus; and the Jaguars are fifth as a team in hurry percentage despite ranking just 15th in team blitz percentage.
The wager below, in that case, is not only a bet that the Chiefs can offer Mahomes enough time to exploit a weak secondary, but that he can do something even when they do not.
The line: Chiefs -8.5
The pick: Chiefs 33, Jaguars 20
Record against the spread this year: 7-10
PLUS THREE
1. Travis Kelce, over 6.5 catches
As mentioned earlier, the Jaguars are the worst team in football at defending the tight end. The bye week should also theoretically aid Kelce, a veteran tight end who has taken some hits this year, as much as it will anyone. He’s in line for a big day.
2. Chris Jones, over 0.75 sacks
It’s against the grain in a very obvious sense — Jones has never recorded a playoff sack.
But it’s very much with the trend in another — he finished the year with sacks in 10 of the final 12 games.
Add to that, the Jaguars have struggled with their interior line. Heck, last time these two teams met, Jones got home twice, earning 1 1/2 sacks. This feels like that day he finally gets one in the postseason.
3. Jerick McKinnon, over 34.5 receiving yards
It’s the type of matchup that should be favorable for McKinnon to see some extra snaps. The Chiefs should be in passing mode frequently against the Jaguars secondary, which would make McKinnon the preferred option. He’s a better pass protector and a better receiver than anyone else in the Chiefs’ backfield.
Prop bet record this season: 26-23