What the Vegas odds say about Saturday’s noon Kansas City Chiefs-Seattle Seahawks game
As the Chiefs stay in the mix for the AFC’s top seed and its lone postseason bye, they do have one thing in their favor — the back half of their schedule.
And one thing, well, not so much — the Bills still need to drop a game at some point.
But in a conversation about the former, this perhaps illustrates it best: The Chiefs are projected to be favored by more than one possession in four straight games.
This week included.
The Chiefs are favored 10 points against the visiting Seahawks on Christmas Eve at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
One thing you should know, though: Kansas City isn’t exactly tearing it up in these situations. Or any situation in the betting market, for that matter. The Chiefs are 2-4 when favored by more than one possession this season, and they are the AFC’s worst team against the spread overall, at just 4-9-1 this year.
The Seahawks (7-7) have not been a double-digit underdog all season, a statistic imposed by their offense. They rank top-10 in the NFL in both rushing and passing yards on a per-play basis. They’ll be without wide receiver Tyler Lockett, but DK Metcalf remains a tough matchup on the outside. Really, their only glaring weakness offensively is they tend to give up a lot of sacks — 7.82% of their drop-backs results in sacks. The Chiefs did play one other team with a similar weakness — Cincinnati three weeks ago — and struggled to take advantage.
The Seahawks defense, on the other hand, should make for a big day for the Chiefs, regardless of the cold weather. They’re bad against the pass, and worse against the run. Read on, because you’ll see that reflected in this week’s prop bet picks.
The line: Chiefs -10
The pick: Chiefs 33, Seahawks 24
Last week’s pick: Chiefs -14
My record against the spread this year: 7-7
PLUS THREE
1. Isiah Pacheco, over 69.5 rushing yards
I might get bored with this bet at some point — but certainly not before it stops cashing. Pacheco has appeared on this list for a month now, topping his Vegas rushing number in six straight games. The streak has to end at some point, but as long as the over/under remains below 70, I’ll keep on it. The Seahawks allow 4.9 yards per carry.
2. Patrick Mahomes, over 295.5 passing yards
It seems like a big number but Mahomes has topped 300 passing yards in eight of the last nine games. There’s not a lot of reason to think this Seahawks’ defense becomes the exception. The secondary is ranked in the bottom half of the league in just about every category.
3. JuJu Smith-Schuster, over 53.5 receiving yards
It’s a first for this column — picking three Chiefs individual players to hit their overs — but I don’t envision the cold weather playing as much of a factor as some do. As Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders pointed out Friday, teams tend to find a way to score in these conditions. And as for Smith-Schuster specifically, in five of the last six games in which he’s played at least half the Chiefs’ offensive snaps, he has topped 70 receiving yards.
Prop bet record last week: 2-1
Prop bet record this season: 22-18
This story was originally published December 24, 2022 at 6:30 AM.