Why the Chiefs’ dud in Houston is not the cause for concern it appeared to be
The Chiefs beat a one-win football team in Houston and actually needed overtime to do it. Maybe without the benefit of the turnover that preceded Jerick McKinnon’s game-winning touchdown run, this column is about the biggest upset of the NFL season.
But it isn’t.
Heck, it isn’t even about the Chiefs making so many self-inflicted mistakes that you’d run out of red ink if you took the time to correct them.
Sorry in advance, but if you came here hoping to read about how the Chiefs are doomed in January — because, come on, if they can barely squeak by the Texans, they don’t stand a chance against the likes of Buffalo and Cincinnati — you’ve arrived at the wrong space. The correlation is absent, and that explanation is forthcoming.
First, some honesty: As I walked into the visitors’ locker room after the 30-24 final at NRG Stadium, that thought crossed my mind. On the surface, sure, it’s logical.
But it’s not supported by what we just saw unfold, which was bizarre, frustrating and discouraging— but not at all predictive of the Chiefs’ future.
The Chiefs dominated the game Sunday in the areas that are good indicators of what type of team they could be when it matters most, even if the final score didn’t indicate as much. And their quarterback was just about as good as he’s been all season. The final score, to be sure, is the most important element of a game — duh — but it’s not the most important element in advancing where this Chiefs season might finish.
Which is a worthwhile exercise on the day the Chiefs clinched the division, and along with it a playoff spot.
To be clear, when quarterback Patrick Mahomes stepped to the lectern after the game and opened with this, he was absolutely right: “We know we have a lot to work on — to clean up — at least with the turnovers and the penalties.”
The Chiefs played a really sloppy game. They cannot, of course, play a similarly chaotic game and expect the result will be identical. The opposition is almost universally better than the team they played on Sunday.
The Chiefs turned the ball over twice, and both turnovers prompted touchdown drives from the Texans. They committed 10 penalties that totaled more than 100 yards, and five resulted in Texans first downs. That’s why it was close.
But look at it from this point of view, and keep in mind that some numbers will follow: The Chiefs were as unlucky as they’ve been all season, in the areas that qualify more as fluky than repeatable, and they still won an NFL game.
They gained 502 yards of offense, their second-best outing of the season. They allowed just 219 yards, the defense’s second-best outing of the season — and better than any outing a year ago, playoffs included.
Sounds like a pretty good day, right?
More telling, the Chiefs were at 6.61 yards per play over 76 snaps. And they held the Texans to a measly 3.8 yards per play.
Since 2007, teams that have met both criteria — yards per play and yards allowed per play — are 59-0.
59-0!
In other words, teams that perform like the Chiefs did Sunday don’t just generally win — since 2007, they always win. Against bad teams. Against good teams. Against any teams.
These are the kinds of numbers that are generally repeatable — the kinds of numbers that demonstrate what a team will be even more than what they were on any given day.
Turnovers and penalties, from a historical perspective, are not. They’re closer to bad days at the office, especially when the turnovers are fumbles.
The Chiefs had a bad day at the office, but not one that suggests that the entire operation is falling apart.
Mahomes was terrific on Sunday — another repeatable measurement — a week after we were supposed to freak out because he threw three interceptions. He finished the game having completed his final 20 passes, and based on the degree of difficulty, that streak had a less than 1% probably of taking place, per Next Gen Stats. His 10.3 completion percentage over expectation is his highest of the season, too.
Guess what — the turnovers in Denver were not the best way to anticipate what his future might be.
Same with the Chiefs this week.
I get it — you should not have sat on your couch and sweated about whether the Chiefs were going to blow their chances at the No. 1 seed by losing to football’s worst team. After a difficult first-half schedule, this was supposed to, at last, be the time to relax.
It wasn’t that. The Chiefs will have to be better. But all of the evidence suggests they will be.
This story was originally published December 18, 2022 at 7:13 PM.