Here’s what the Vegas odds say about the Kansas City Chiefs-Houston Texans game
A league that loves to sell its parity, the NFL actually has some data to bolster the case. Well, so long as it ignores one outlier.
Only five NFL games this season have featured betting lines of two full touchdowns. Three of them have involved the Texans.
That includes this week.
The Chiefs are favored by exactly 14 points in Houston on Sunday, the largest line in the NFL this weekend.
It is the third time in the last four weeks alone that the Texans will enter a game as at least a 14-point underdog. They did cover a 17-point line in Dallas a week ago, which represented the largest spread in the league this year.
If nothing else, we learned last week how difficult it can be to cover two-possession spreads — when the Chiefs scored the initial 27 points in Denver but won by just six — but that’s not a Kansas City-specific problem. The Chiefs are 2-3 against spreads larger than one possession this year; the Bills are 3-4; and the Eagles, losers of just one game this year, are 1-2 in those scenarios.
Which means I’m expecting something of an exception Sunday.
On paper, the Chiefs-Texans is about as lopsided of a mismatch as they come in the NFL. Pro Football Focus rates the Chiefs as the third best team in the league and the Texans as the very worst. Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric also rates Houston as the worst team in football, though that metric isn’t quite as high on the Chiefs, ranking them seventh.
But you get the idea.
The Texans have the 31st-ranked offense, the 29th-ranked rushing attack and the 31st-best passing game. Their offense ranks in the bottom three in interception rate, first downs, third-down percentage and red-zone efficiency.
The defense has allowed the sixth most rushing yards and the eighth most passing yards in football.
There’s a reason the line is 14 points. And there’s enough to justify the pick, despite the large spread.
Because I’m sure you were wondering: Houston was the first team this season to cover a two-touchdown point spread last week. The three previous massive underdogs were 0-3.
The line: Chiefs -14
The pick: Chiefs 33, Texans 16
Last week’s pick: Chiefs -9
My record against the spread this year: 7-6
PLUS THREE
1. Isiah Pacheco, over 68.5 rushing yards
Been riding this one for a month now, and it’s cashed five straight weeks. Why stop now?
Sure, it’s the largest number on the board in Pacheco’s rookie year, albeit slightly, but if the Chiefs get out to a decent lead in the second half (and you can see from the above pick that I believe they will), we could see even more of Pacheco than usual.
2. Travis Kelce, under 6.5 receptions
For starters, Kelce has not had more than six catches in a game in any of the last five weeks. Beyond that, this could be a game in which he sees fewer snaps if it’s out of hand late.
3. JuJu Smith-Schuster, over 50.5 yards
Smith-Schuster’s numbers took a dip in late November, but that was an injury and playing-time induced slump more than anything. In the last five games in which he’s played at least 35 snaps, Smith-Schuster has at least 75 yards in four of them.
Prop bet record last week: 2-1
Prop bet record this season: 20-17