What the Vegas odds say about the Kansas City Chiefs-L.A. Chargers game Sunday night
The life of a perennial division champion in the NFL can be unforgiving or quite captivating, depending on your viewpoint.
Either way, the effect shows up on a first-place schedule.
Consider, for example, what the Chiefs have already provided this season. We got Tom Brady-Patrick Mahomes in the opening month, Bills-Chiefs two weeks later and a Super Bowl LIV rematch another week after that.
But for all of the circle-the-calendar dates on this Kansas City schedule, this is the one I have marked:
Chargers-Chiefs.
More specifically, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes.
Because it’s about more than hype. More than potential. There’s actual evidence of the intrigue when Herbert and Mahomes share a field. They have met four times. Two went to overtime. The other two were tied into the fourth quarter. None of the four have been decided by more than one possession.
This is trending that way, too, if you’re inclined to follow the oddsmakers in Vegas. The Chiefs are a 5-point favorite against the Chargers on Sunday night.
The Chiefs have beaten Herbert by more than five points only once in five tries, and that’s when they scored an overtime touchdown in Los Angeles a year ago. So let’s place as asterisk on that one.
The Chargers have struggled a bit lately, though they have been ravaged by injuries. What’s new? That could change this week, though partially. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, the Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers, are listed as questionable, but both told local reporters they’ll be ready to play. They’re typically a handful for Kansas City’s secondary. Joey Bosa, on the other hand, remains on injured reserve, and the Chargers’ best matchup in the Week 2 meeting was their ability to pressure with their front-four. Bosa’s absence changes that.
A dive into the Chargers’ numbers don’t tell the story of a 5-4 football team. They have been outscored by 28 points this season. They are 30th in yards per rushing play this season, and 24th in yards per passing play. Defensively, they allow 5.4 yards per carry, second most in the NFL, and their pass defense is exactly average. They’ve struggled to sack the quarterback (20th), and struggled to get off the field on third downs (25th).
The pick against the spread is either dictated by the historical evidence of the matchup or the recent trends. I’ll stick with the latter. The Chargers simply aren’t playing good football.
The Chiefs are 4-5 against the spread this season, and the Chargers are 6-3.
The over/under for the game is 52 points.
The line: Chiefs -5
The pick: Chiefs 31, Chargers 24
Last week’s pick: Chiefs -9.5 against Jaguars
My record against the spread this year: 6-3
PLUS THREE
1. Travis Kelce over 79.5 receiving yards
While Kelce will have to match up against safety Derwin James some Sunday, he has enjoyed some of his best games against the Chargers, including his career-best outing at SoFi Stadium just last year.
In his last four games against the Chargers, Kelce has averaged 7.8 catches for 109 yards.
Add to that, the Chiefs are playing without Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster, so they figure to force feed Kelce.
Speaking of which...
2. Noah Gray over 13.5 receiving yards
Because of their injuries at wide receiver, the Chiefs could employ a few more two-tight end sets. Gray has come on the past two games, with five catches for 65 yards and a touchdown.
The number here is so low that perhaps just one catch, and almost certainly two, eclipses the necessary yardage.
3. Austin Ekeler, anytime touchdown
You have to fork over a bit more cash to get the payout on this one (-150), but it’s worth the juice. Ekeler has scored at least one touchdown in five of the past six weeks and 10 total in that span.
The Chiefs held him out of the end zone earlier this season, but he scored in each meeting in 2021.
Prop bet record last week: 1-2
Pro bet record this season: 12-13