What the Vegas odds say about the Chiefs-Titans game. Should series history matter?
You won’t see me start many of these weekly betting columns by capturing series history because, frankly, it’s close to irrelevant.
Close to.
The Titans and Chiefs recent history is so unusual that it bears mentioning. Heck, it bears studying.
In the last six meetings between the two, the Chiefs have been favored by more than a field goal all six times. Yet they’ve won just once — the AFC Championship Game that sent them to the Super Bowl in January 2020.
It might feel like we should learn our lesson at some point, but to predict how the Vegas sportsbooks will read a game, refer back to the end of the first paragraph. The series simply isn’t much of a factor and often none at all.
Thus, the Chiefs are still favored 12 points Sunday against the visiting Titans — the largest line of any meeting between the two teams since Andy Reid arrived in Kansas City as the Chiefs head coach nearly a decade ago.
My advice: Follow their lead, hard as that might be when some of these past games are fresh in your memory. Like, say, the one last year.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has twice walked off a football field without leading a single touchdown drive.
Super Bowl LV.
And last year’s trip to Nashville.
“We’re definitely thinking about that, for sure,” tight end Travis Kelce said Friday afternoon. “It drives the mind-set for this game.”
When it comes to actually picking a side on this game, the difficulty is the unknown of the Titans’ quarterback. Starter Ryan Tannehill is questionable, and backup Malik Willis didn’t exactly inspire much confidence in his first career start last week. He threw for 55 yards, only attempting 10 passes.
If Willis is the guy and the line stays stagnant, the Chiefs are a pretty easy pick for me here.
If it’s Tannehill, it’s more of a coin toss. Sure, the Titans are 5-2, but same as a year ago, most of the advanced metrics don’t think much of them. None of their five wins have come against teams that currently have winning records.
In fact, their five wins have come against teams ranked 25th, 26th, 31st (twice) and 32nd in Football Outsiders’ overall DVOA ranking. The 5-2 is a bit misleading, in other words.
Some relevant info, as always provided here:
The Chiefs are 3-4 against the spread, and the Titans are 5-2.
The over/under for the game is 46 points.
The line: Chiefs -12.5
The pick: Chiefs 33, Titans 13
Last week’s pick: Chiefs -2 at San Francisco
My record against the spread this year: 5-2
PLUS THREE*
1. Patrick Mahomes, over 281.5 passing yards
The Titans are an above-average defensive team, but that’s not because of the pass defense.
They allow 254.7 pass yards per game (24th in NFL), and their last four games have come against these quarterbacks: Davis Mills, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan (again).
Patrick Mahomes is a bit of a step up in competition this week. He has averaged 308.4 yards per game this season, including 351 over the last three weeks.
*Note: While usually I pick three prop bets, with the uncertainty of the Titans’ quarterback situation, all player props remain off the board and unavailable, except the Mahomes number listed above. So we’ll have to stick with just that one for now.
Prop bet record last week: 1-2
Prop bet record this season: 10-11