Here’s what the betting line says about KC Chiefs-TB Bucs game. And why it’s unusual
In December 2019, the Broncos visited Arrowhead Stadium in the midst of a snowstorm, the field covered in white flakes in an eventual 23-3 Chiefs win.
The weather had been anticipated, and so the oddsmakers in Vegas adjusted accordingly, setting the over/under for the game at just 43 points.
It remains the lowest over/under total for a game started by Patrick Mahomes.
The second lowest?
That’s coming on Sunday.
The over/under for the Chiefs-Buccaneers game in Tampa Bay is set at 45 points, which might not be a low number relative to the rest of the NFL this week, but it sure is for Kansas City.
It’s not necessarily an indictment on where the Chiefs offense stands after back-to-back lackluster outings (though it’s not a compliment), but it’s also commentary on the defenses. The Bucs and Chiefs defenses both rank in the top-10 in yards allowed. The Bucs have yielded the fourth-fewest yards in football at 289 per game, and the Chiefs are ninth at 314 yards per game. Add to that, Tampa has struggled to move the ball — only the Bears, Steelers, Panthers, Texans and Seahawks have gained fewer yards through three weeks.
A couple of hundred words into this, let’s finally get to the spot we usually lead off: the spread. After the Chiefs opened as a small favorite, the line has moved to a pick ‘em for the week. Some sportsbooks are actually favoring Tampa Bay now.
It’s not as though any line makes for an easy bet — that’s the whole purpose, after all — but I’ve had more difficulty determining the pick on this line than any other in the opening month.
Ultimately, I’m going to lean on something I wrote this week: Patrick Mahomes has every reason in the world to be at his best mentally in this game, and that usually leads to good things on the field.
For what it’s worth, the Chiefs are 1-2 against the spread this year, and the Bucs are 2-1. Only one of the three Chiefs games has hit the over, and none of the Bucs games have. Make note of that if the low over/under number seems enticing. Always a reason for it.
The pick: Chiefs 23, Buccaneers 20
Last week’s pick: Chiefs -5 1/2 points (loss)
My record against the spread this year: 2-1
PLUS THREE
1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 9.5 rushing attempts
Edwards-Helaire is now the Chiefs starting running back in technicality only. Jerick McKinnon is getting more snaps than Edwards-Helaire, who, by the way, has not had more than eight carries in a game this season. There’s no reason to think that changes Sunday, a week after he turned seven rushes into 0 yards.
2. Tom Brady, longest completion is less than 38.5 yards
And under-the-radar improvement from the Chiefs defense is the lack of explosive passing plays it has allowed. It helps to not have Dan Sorensen in the back end of the secondary. Who knew?
The Chiefs have allowed only one completion of more than 38.5 yards, and it was all of 39 yards. It also required a remarkable catch from Mike Williams in Week 2.
Look, when you make these kinds of wagers, literally one play gets you. One busted coverage. One miraculous catch.
It’s a stressful side down to the final play, but the odds are against it, so I’m sticking with that.
3. Travis Kelce, over 67.5 receiving yards
While the Buccaneers have changed head coaches since these two teams met twice in the 2020 season — once in the regular season, once in the Super Bowl — the defensive philosophy remains the same. Todd Bowles still calls the shots, after his promotion from defensive coordinator to head coach. Kelce shredded the Bucs in both meetings two years ago. He even had 10 catches for 133 yards in a Super Bowl loss in which the Chiefs didn’t score a touchdown. And now more than then, it’s clear he’s Mahomes very best option in the passing game.
Prop bet record last week: 1-2
Prop bet season record: 4-5