Patrick Mahomes dominated the Chiefs opener. It won’t be that easy anymore. Here’s why
The blitz came from both sides of the perimeter, purposeful deception after the Cardinals had placed just three of their big bodies along the defensive line.
But it deceived, well, nobody.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes spotted the pair of cornerbacks barreling toward him immediately, and after an initial nine-yard drop into the pocket, he stepped forward and flicked a ball over the middle of the field. Travis Kelce stood there waiting — open, by the way, because one of those blitzing cornerbacks was lined up across from him at the snap.
Eighteen yards later, the Chiefs were in field goal range seconds before the end of the half, and a 13-point locker room advantage instead became 16. The Chiefs would roll 44-21 in the season opener.
That play — that one example — is tightly wrapped into a larger story that emerged in Week 1 but will remain relevant from Weeks 2-18. The story we’ve been wondering about since the Chiefs overhauled their wide receiver room this offseason.
How will teams defend a new-look Patrick Mahomes offense?
It will get tougher in the future. We know that.
Because in the first reply, the Cardinals did something ill-advised, and that’s as kindly as I can put it. Something that required a willful ignorance of history.
They blitzed Mahomes.
Like, a lot.
And they got burned.
Like, a lot.
Mahomes finished NFL’s opening week as the most frequently blitzed quarterback in the league, and he shredded them for it. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 143 yards, and all five of his touchdowns came against extra pass rushers.
“That’s kind of their identity,” Mahomes said.
A year ago, though, that wouldn’t have mattered. A defensive coordinator prefers to bring heavy pressure? So what? He would gladly break from his defense’s own identity, just a weeklong departure, for the option to defend Patrick Mahomes the way every other defense in the league was defending Patrick Mahomes. In other words: As few blitzes as possible, and as many extra defenders on the back end as you can afford.
But after an offseason in which the Chiefs altered their offensive personnel more significantly than any other in the Mahomes Era, you couldn’t help but wonder if that would receive an alteration in response.
It did. One time. And that one time might prevent it from happening again. The Cardinals bypassed the deep shells and instead stuck to their ways. They just went after him. And after him. And after him. Mahomes was blitzed on 54% of his dropbacks, per Next Gen Stats.
“You kind of get to games sometimes where it’s ‘do they change their identity’ or ‘do they believe they can go out there and play the way they play?’” Mahomes said. “And they went out there and played.”
Again, let me reiterate: This is not the way to go. It’s long been known it’s not the way to go. And Mahomes proved Sunday it’s still not the way to go, regardless of the new personnel that surrounds him.
Which means the schedule is likely to grow more difficult, if for no other reason than scheme. Or a lack of blitzes within future schemes. When it’s all said and done, we might look back at Week 1 as the beginning of the repeat cycle of those deep shell coverages. Because the Cardinals so kindly offered 30 other teams the blueprint of how not to defend this year’s Chiefs.
The Chargers will provide a good test run for the theory Thursday. They don’t mind bringing pressure, but they have all the evidence in the world not to do it in Kansas City — and they need only to look at their own two meetings with the Chiefs last year.
Mahomes dropped into the pocket 100 times in those two matchups. On 74 of the dropbacks, the Chargers settled with three- or four-man rushes, and Mahomes produced an 83.6 passer rating against them. He averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt. On the 26 others, in which the Chargers sent five-plus rushers into the mix, Mahomes compiled a 123.6 passer rating. The yards per attempt ballooned to 11.7, using data from Sports Info Solutions.
It’s not exactly a coin toss.
It’s a choice of which side of the coin you want — with statistical evidence that, hey, it’s best if it comes up heads this time.
“They’ll have a good game plan. They do a good job of not only playing the same coverages but, through their scheme (evaluation), being in the right spots,” Mahomes said of what to expect Thursday against the Chargers. “So it’s about us counteracting that and going out and executing. They’re going to play, obviously, probably more zone and not as much pressure.”
After that Week 1 outing? Yeah, that’s probably a safe bet.
This story was originally published September 14, 2022 at 5:30 AM.