KC Chiefs starters look great, but there’s still one question they’ve yet to answer
The hole emerged, clear as day to anyone watching from afar, at the moment Patrick Mahomes stuffed the football into the belly of Isiah Pacheco. Seven yards shy of the goal line, right guard Trey Smith and tackle Andrew Wylie created enough separation to allow Pacheco to waltz in the end zone without even hitting full stride.
If only he’d seen it.
Instead, Pacheco darted immediately just left of center, ignoring the running lane to his right. He gained zero yards (and points) on a play that should’ve gained seven yards (and points).
Others saw the crease. Like, say, Mahomes.
As Pacheco ran left of center, Mahomes raised his arm to point toward the actual opening, in the same manner he might point toward a receiver who ran the wrong route. The message had been clear: This way.
It’s one play. It’s one play, from a rookie, in a game that won’t count toward the standings by year’s end.
But it’s symbolic of where the Chiefs’ running game stands — too often in the wrong direction.
“It can be a lot better. It can be a lot better,” Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy repeated.
The preseason is just a tad small-sample-size to frame the running game production as alarming, but this particular preseason has done nothing to silence that ringing.
The Chiefs first-team offense — the offense when Mahomes is present on the field — has rushed nine times for all of 19 yards. Actually, fullback Michael Burton has two of those carries for six yards, which leaves Pacheco and starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s share as seven rushes for 13 yards.
Who cares? Preseason, right? Well, the stats don’t mean much, but some of the film does. The Pacheco run is a fitting example, and its most alarming aspect is he missed a hole that’s exactly where the play is designed to go. It’s not as though he missed a cutback lane. This is where he was supposed to move his feet.
“Yes, he had an opportunity to make a huge hit,” Bieniemy acknowledged when I’d asked if the play was blocked correctly. “But at the end of the day, it’s a great learning lesson for him, and this is why you play the preseason.”
To be clear, the Chiefs are cycling through a vanilla offense in the preseason. If they have made significant changes to their running game design, the initial two exhibition games aren’t exactly a desirable time to roll them out.
So I’m not saying the Chiefs are necessarily in a bad spot. What I am saying, however, is that even if the Chiefs do plan to add some flavor in the regular season, they haven’t executed the vanilla yet, and that’s got to come first.
It’s more than one measly run from Pacheco, who should only improve after seeing these types of plays on tape. But let’s do return to the tape for telling information. On the opening drive in Chicago, Edwards-Helaire failed to execute 2nd-and-1 carry, bypassing a running lane that would have easily sprung him past the first-down marker. He was stopped for no gain, and the Chiefs had to return to Burton to gain the first down on the following snap.
Those missed opportunities aren’t about the bland preseason play sheet. It’s about the execution of the plays themselves. Or lack thereof.
This is all nitpicking at a top-five offense and one that has scored touchdowns in each of its three possessions this month — I’ll grant that — but the Chiefs offense basically confronted two questions at the conclusion of this offseason.
Will the new batch of receivers be enough to overcome the loss of Tyreek Hill?
And can the Chiefs do enough to draw teams out of their deep shell?
The run game is part of the solution to the latter question, and I can’t underscore the word “part” enough, because you’d like for most of the solution to include the ball in the hands of Mahomes. But wouldn’t it be beneficial if the ball didn’t have to be in his hands to produce a big play? In that vein, this is less about advocating for more runs and more about advocating for higher efficiency when the Chiefs do run.
Teams will offer them the opportunity. At least they have in recent seasons. The Chiefs faced the highest percentage of light boxes in the NFL a year ago — in layman’s terms, teams dared them to run the ball. So if you want to point to the fact the Chiefs averaged a quite-good 4.54 yards per carry a year ago, well, they should have. (And I’d also mention that Mahomes’ 5.8 yards per attempt on 66 rushes helped their cause a bit.)
Edwards-Helaire saw the most favorable running situations in football — only 8.4% of his rushes were against eight men or more in the box, per Next Gen Stats. That was nearly two percent fewer than anyone else. And Darrel Williams, who finished as the Chiefs leading rusher in 2021, saw eight-plus defenders in the box on just 13.2% of his carries, the sixth lowest number in the NFL.
When the Chiefs do elect to run the ball, in other words, they have to better execute the plays than what we’ve seen this preseason. Can they? Sure. If you entered this season with the run game execution as a worry, though, there’s been little evidence from camp to throw you off course. That could be an important detail.
And just keep in mind, that’s ultimately a defense’s goal every time it steps on the field against the Chiefs — to throw Mahomes off course.
How? By playing defenses that dare the Chiefs to run the ball.
They will have to do it at some point. And do it better than what the evidence suggests so far.
This story was originally published August 23, 2022 at 5:00 AM.