Kansas City Royals pitching staff has its share of problems, but let’s start here
By the time starting pitcher Brad Keller departed the mound Sunday at Kauffman Stadium, he had allowed as many runs as he’d recorded outs. The Orioles brought 13 hitters to the plate against him — three of them homered, four singled, and another walked.
His final trip to the dugout came before the second inning finished, and by the end of a 10-7 loss, the outing effectively spoiled a bright afternoon from a lineup that has made significant strides over the last month.
If you’re thinking that this sort of thing seems to be happening a lot, particularly recently and particularly with Keller, just as the Royals have figured out something at the plate, you’re on to something. In his 12 starts, Keller has allowed eight first-inning runs.
Trouble is, he’s actually one of the Royals’ most effective first-inning pitchers.
The Royals have combined for a 7.32 ERA in first innings this season, not only the highest in baseball by a considerable margin but the highest of any team in the past 16 seasons. The 2006 Pirates were at 7.39, and the 2006 Diamondbacks were at 7.33. The Royals are in the race.
It’s an unnerving trend for any rotation, but especially so for a team with the fewest wins in baseball entering Monday. There’s a significant mental component to the game, a bigger factor than some want to credit, and a team that loses so frequently probably doesn’t have the best feeling about seeing crooked numbers on the scoreboard before it even brings its leadoff hitter to the plate. The proof is in those numbers, too — 610 Sports Radio’s Josh Vernier pointed out the Royals are 0-30 this season when trailing by three-plus runs, one of only two teams in MLB yet to erase such a deficit. An even larger deficit arrived in the top of the second inning Sunday.
The Royals are, of course, not a good pitching team as a whole (28th of 30 teams in ERA), so it stands to reason they struggle in the first inning. But it’s how badly they struggle that’s of note here.
The Royals season ERA of 5.18 is 1.19 runs higher than league average over the full nine innings. Teams tend to perform better in the opening frame considering their best hitters are atop the lineup — imagine that — but the degree to which the Royals are allowing runs is alarming. Their first-inning ERA of 7.32 is 2.86 higher than league average. Heck, it’s 0.79 worse than anyone else.
The Royals are at least two runs better in the second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth innings than they are in the first.
You’d like to pinpoint something in this trend — perhaps in the pre-game preparation — to tidy things up, but that’s probably an oversimplification because there are multiple variables at play.
Besides, Keller told reporters in the clubhouse Sunday, “I felt pretty good in my bullpen, which is kind of crazy.”
Another factor: It seems to be one more indication of a pitching staff that looks as though it’s attempting to be too perfect. Manager Mike Matheny has acknowledged signs of that, and they tend to show up the better hitters you face — which, go figure, you see a lot of them in the opening inning. That would help explain the walks.
This isn’t isolated to Keller. As mentioned earlier, he’s one of the least blameworthy members of the rotation to the early-game struggles. As a whole, the staff is allowing opponents to bat .307 in the first inning, with a .953 OPS. Those are All-Star numbers. Teams are slugging .576 against them in the first — only seven hitters in MLB have a better slugging percentage this season.
Kris Bubic has a 21.00 ERA in the first, with Daniel Lynch at 9.82, Carlos Hernandez 7.71, Jonathan Heasley 4.50 and Zack Greinke 3.60.
Brady Singer is the lone outlier in this equation. Through Monday, he’s yet to allow a first-inning run in six starts and has given up just one extra-base hit.
There’s some advice Singer could impart on his teammates in the rotation.
Throw strikes.
Outside of Singer, the rest of the staff has combined to walk 28 hitters in 54 games. That would compute to 4.67 per nine innings. For comparison’s sake, the Reds have walked 4.12 per actual nine innings this season, the worst of any team.
Singer’s first-inning walk totals in five starts?
Zero.
Start there.
And you might start better.
This story was originally published June 13, 2022 at 3:04 PM.