It’s decision time. What should the KC Chiefs do with their first-round draft picks?
In his initial four NFL drafts as the Chiefs general manager, Brett Veach made all of one first-round pick.
In his fifth, he has two.
It’s not only unfamiliar territory for this regime; it’s atypical in the organization’s history. Only once since 1984 have the Chiefs held multiple first-round selections — in 2008, they grabbed Glenn Dorsey fifth overall and Branden Albert 15th overall.
On Thursday night, that changes.
Maybe.
It’s still my belief the Chiefs would like to move at least one of their picks somewhere — whether that means a jump forward in the first round or a move backward is dependent on how the first 15 picks unfold.
The Chiefs will be one of the more intriguing teams to follow in this NFL Draft — beyond holding eight selections in the first four rounds, they will be targeting positions that have a handful of players stacked somewhere in the 20-50 overall range. There are edge rushers, cornerbacks and wide receivers who could foreseeably be gone by the time the Chiefs’ two first-round picks roll around, yet other mock drafts have those same players available by the time their first selection of the second round arrives (No. 50).
The draft, in that sense, isn’t simply about figuring out what you need but also gauging who other teams might covet. And that information will dictate the trades.
For this hypothetical, I have the Chiefs holding onto the 29th and 30th overall selections toward the back end of the first round.
Which two players should they pick?
No. 29: George Pickens, WR, Georgia
Pickens is floating all over the place in national mock drafts, making his destination difficult to predict. There’s WR1 potential, but there was also that ACL injury in March 2021. There are obvious attractive traits like size and speed and catch radius, but there have also been whispers of immaturity since he was ejected for fighting in a game his freshman season.
He could fall.
Or he could be gone.
The interview process with Pickens dictates where he slots on the Chiefs’ board, but there’s a lot that makes sense about matching him in Kansas City. The Chiefs need another receiver after the departure of Tyreek Hill – Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the only wideout under contract beyond this season — but that doesn’t mean they need to go get another player exactly like him.
Pickens isn’t that. He’s 6-3, for starters, with a lanky frame that could stand to add some muscle. That shouldn’t be a problem in the long-term. Beyond his height, he plays even taller because he’s able to high-point the football. His catch radius stands out, and that’s something the Chiefs have missed during the Patrick Mahomes era — receivers who can consistently make contested catches.
A former five-star recruit, Pickens led Georgia in receiving as a freshman (49 catches, 727 yards and 8 touchdowns). He had only five receptions a year ago, his junior season, after the ACL injury in the spring held him out for the majority of the year. He’s deemed healthy now and would fit in nicely as an X receiver in Andy Reid’s offense.
No. 30: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
He just looks — and plays — like a Steve Spagnuolo cornerback. Elam measures 6-foot-1, 191 pounds, and he has shown a preference to play physical. That makes him an ideal fit in press coverage, and he has experience in both man and zone schemes in the SEC. Elam also ran the 40-yard dash in 4.39 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine last month.
What’s not to like?
Well, he didn’t show consistent improvement at Florida. Pro Football Focus graded him at 87.8 as a freshman, 77.4 as a sophomore and 61.8 as a junior. He was bogged down by penalties in that junior year. His physical play, while alluring, can also be a detriment at times.
But cornerbacks without faults aren’t available at Nos. 29 and 30 in the draft. At least three will be gone, and possibly four or five.
Elam can make a good fit. And if there’s one position the Chiefs have developed well, it’s cornerback.
Wait, no edge rusher?
A day ago, I placed edge rusher as the most significant area of need for the Chiefs. No, nothing has changed in 24 hours. But when looking at the group of defensive ends projected to be available at the back end of the first round, there’s not one who separates himself from the pack enough that the Chiefs couldn’t simply wait and see if another in that lot will make it to No. 50, when the their initial second-round pick arrives.
What I’m seeing most often
If there’s a leader in the clubhouse from national mock drafts, it’s Boye Mafe, an edge rusher from Minnesota. Seeing his name a lot, and it makes sense. He is an elite athlete at a position of need. Nothing against Mafe. I’m just more drawn to Pickens and Elam.
Some potential wrinkles
• A lot to like about Daxton Hill, a safety/cornerback combo from Michigan who can play the slot and transition to a deep safety a year from now, when Juan Thornhill’s contract expires. I’d applaud the Hill for another reason — it could allow the Chiefs to send L’Jarius Sneed, their best cornerback, to the outside.
• Some recent notable mocks (Peter King, Todd McShay) suggest Purdue edge rusher George Karlaftis could fall out of the first round. I’d have a hard time believing that, but if he falls to the Chiefs, he’d be hard to pass up. He’s not included in my two picks because I don’t anticipate him being available.
What Vegas says
• Mafe’s over/under for draft position is listed at 30.5 on multiple sites. The bet boils down to this — do you think he makes it past the Chiefs’ two picks? The payout represents a coin flip.
• Similarly, Penn State wide receiver Jahan Dotson’s over/under is 30.5.
• Three cornerbacks have an over/under listed within the 30-33 range — Elam, Clemson cornerback Andrew Booth and Washington cornerback Kyler Gordon.
• And an interesting one: Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder’s over/under is 29.5. While anywhere in front of the Chiefs selections is a winner for the under, it’s interesting the number falls while the Chiefs are scheduled to be on the clock. Why? Because if the Chiefs do make a trade backward, it’s most likely with a team that wants that fifth-year option on a quarterback. So it might not be the Chiefs making the selection after all.
We’ll know it all within 24 hours.