Why Bobby Witt Jr. is struggling in debut month for Kansas City Royals ... and why that’s OK
Bobby Witt Jr. stepped to the plate at Kauffman Stadium this week, though when he looked toward the mound, he didn’t see an actual pitcher. Instead, there stood a machine, stationed to replicate one specific pitch.
A slider.
And another.
And then another.
Two weeks into Witt’s Major League career, pitchers have telegraphed where they perceive his weakness — because in this league, if you have a weakness, any at all, they sure as heck will find it. Witt has been peppered with sliders in his debut month, particularly those arriving low in the strike zone and off the outside portion of the plate. We’ll get to that.
This is part of the learning curve in this journey, that of the league’s No. 1-ranked prospect, whose first taste of the bigs isn’t quite as sweet as he imagined it would be. Or indicative of the bar he set on Opening Day.
And yet...
“You never want to fail or whatever,” Witt said, “but I think this is the best thing for me.”
Because?
“You learn from your mistakes,” he said. “It’s going to help you not just this year, but it’s going to help you for years to come. I just want to keep learning as much as I can, figuring out pitchers, figuring out my strengths and weaknesses and go out there each and every day.”
He’s speaking from experience — OK, maybe not Major League experience but rather personal experience. A year ago at this time, Witt was in the midst of another early-season slump. He had hoped to make the Royals team out of spring training, but after being sent to the minors instead, he struggled. For a few days. And then a week. And then nearly a month.
The emotional jolt of not making the team had affected him more than he realized. He kept notes in case something like that would happen again — actually, he kept notes because he knew something like that would happen again.
Here we are. Another emotional jolt — this time because he’s on the team.
The lesson?
“Just stick to my process,” he said, before emphasizing the point a second time. “Stick to my process.”
At long last, on Thursday, in came another slider from side-winder Joe Smith, and Witt made the adjustment. Shortened his swing. Poked a line drive into right field a turned a sure-fire single into a hopeful double with his feet. (He leads MLB in sprint speed at 30 feet per second, according to MLB Statcast data.)
It’s one swing. It’s only a start — with so much ground yet to cover. Through Thursday’s games, Witt is still hitting just .146 with a .186 on-base percentage and .454 OPS in his first 11 games. It’s been, well, pretty bad at the plate.
But also pretty typical.
There’s another rookie scuffling, the top-ranked prospect in his organization. He’s had only six hits. He’s Julio Rodriguez, an outfielder for the Mariners, and the No. 3-ranked prospect in baseball.
There’s another rookie having a tough go of it in April, yet another player ranked as the best prospect in the organization. He’s had a couple of home runs, but the average has dipped below .200. He’s Spencer Torkleson, a Tigers corner infielder, and the No. 4-ranked prospect in baseball.
There’s another in San Diego. Another in Philadelphia. One more in prospect-rich Tampa Bay.
In all, seven hitters who cracked MLB Pipeline’s list of top 100 prospects have reached the Major Leagues this season. As of Thursday, the two-week mark from Opening Day, exactly zero were hitting better than .200. None. Together, the seven players, including top-ranked Witt, were 34-for-209, good for a .163 average.
Patience.
This is the norm, not some anomaly.
It will probably help that he’s been here before, and it will almost certainly help that he knows he will be here again.
“He’ll be fine,” Royals right fielder Whit Merrifield said. “I just told him (to) keep making plays defensively to help us win, keep doing things to help us win, and the hits will come. He’ll be fine. He’ll adjust. He just needs a little success to kind of get the ball rolling. Then he’ll be fine.”
The learning curve has come in the heavy does of sliders — and the inability, as of yet, to refrain from pulling the trigger when he sees them. Most glaringly, Witt is swinging at 41.9% of pitches outside the strike zone. Only 3 of 182 qualified hitters swing at balls more often.
What’s he chasing? The slider. And he sure sees a lot of them.
Witt sees a fastball on less than half the pitches thrown his way. A slider is actually the most common pitch — hence the machine work — at 36.6%, per MLB Statcast data. He whiffs on 45.5% of them.
The compliment here is he’s being treated like a legitimate hitter. Pitchers aren’t grooving fastballs because they don’t think they can get away with grooving fastballs against him.
But also: Why risk it? They are sticking to a scouting report that hasn’t yet had a need for deviation. They are pounding the lower part of the strike zone — and the area beneath it — until he proves he won’t swing. Twenty of Witt’s plate appearances have concluded with a pitch in the lower third of the zone or below, and he’s produced just one hit from that lot.
That has to change.
It will.
Most all go through it. George Brett is quick to remind you he was 5 of 40 without a home run in his rookie season. After being named the top prospect in MLB, Witt started 5 of 40 without a home run.
I realize the Opening Day success can be a tease. Can make you restless for what’s next.
Two weeks ago, after Witt provided the game-winning hit on Opening Day, Merrifield quipped it would be his teammates’ jobs to remind Witt he was a rookie. In the ensuing 14 days, there’s been no need for the reminder in the clubhouse.
The game has provided it.
But soon enough, he’ll provide a reminder of his own — why his name topped that list.