As Patrick Mahomes’ extension kicks in, the KC Chiefs must get this next part right
A month shy of free agency and the ensuing NFL Draft, the Chiefs have publicized their priorities, from the must-haves of replenishing their defensive line to the luxuries of providing their offense with another weapon.
But one tiny hurdle: They currently have only roughly $3.5 million in salary cap space, Spotrac and Over The Cap estimate. That’s less money than required to, say, place the franchise tag on free agent left tackle Orlando Brown.
They do have an out, however.
The quarterback.
When Patrick Mahomes signed the richest contract in league history, he simultaneously provided the Chiefs with flexibility for years to come.
But it’s much different than before. The Chiefs are about to enter a new world next month, one that represents their reality for the next decade-plus.
The quarterback is no longer one of the cheapest positions on their roster. For the next several years, they will spend more on Mahomes and less on the talent surrounding him, even accounting for the aforementioned flexibility of his contract.
Which means what?
They can no longer afford to miss.
Not on their free-agent signings. Not on their draft picks.
An example: Frank Clark and Anthony Hitchens combined to occupy 19.4% of the Chiefs’ salary cap in 2021. Their cap charges totaled $39.1 million. A calculation provided by Over The Cap estimated their production to be valued at $6.8 million. The Chiefs had enough freedom to overpay. They hit on a high percentage of other moves, so they didn’t need all of their expensive players to match their paychecks.
Those days are gone.
A franchise that expects to compete for Super Bowl championships is set to embark on a critical free agency and draft period this spring with less wiggle room than at any point in the Mahomes Era. They have to get it right, because if they don’t, they might not be able to afford a Plan B any longer.
A draft class like the one they produced in 2021 — three potential future Pro Bowl-caliber players — is now more necessity, less sweetener.
That’s even with the benefit of the contract they got really right. The biggest cap-clearing move available to the Chiefs this offseason is converting Mahomes’ $27.4 million guaranteed roster bonus into a signing bonus, a move that would spread that cap charge over five seasons rather than just 2022. It would create $21.92 million in cap space this season.
Similar bonus conversions are built into every year of the contract, but as the money is shoved to the future, the price only increases. The money doesn’t just disappear. It does go somewhere, and that landing space is on next year’s cap. And the next year’s. And the next. And the next. If the Chiefs opt to push the money forward every year, as an example, the 2026 charge would be feeling the effects of the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 bonuses.
That’s a possibility, not yet an actuality. The Chiefs should look for years to avoid kicking the can down the road. They might find a year to save for the future.
They at least have the option. Most teams don’t. They’re stuck with the numbers. The Chiefs are in a more comfortable position than most other teams with elite quarterbacks, but he’s not cheap labor. Or at least not as cheap as he once was.
Mahomes occupied only 4% of the salary cap in 2021. Even if the Chiefs convert his $27.4 million roster bonus into a signing bonus this year, his charge would still be $13.87 million, or 6.6% of the salary cap. That’s as low as it will ever get.
Think the pressure is on the Chiefs after the way the past two seasons ended? You bet. But it’s even more so when you consider that fact.
Future cap figures are not yet settled — they’re expected to rise, perhaps sharply with TV and streaming revenue, which will arrive just in time Mahomes’ charge also increases. The Chiefs could also restructure the Mahomes contract at some point before it expires — and 2027 seems like an obvious spot, given the escalation of his base salary and roster bonus that year — to avoid paying the full bill of their conversions all in one season.
As I said, the contract was deftly constructed.
But it’s still pricier than it has been at any point during Mahomes’ tenure here. There’s just no avoiding that. There’s a reason quarterbacks have won Super Bowls while on their rookie deal (see: Seattle’s Russell Wilson) and struggled to replicate the same success afterward. It’s hard to keep the gang together. Harder still to overcome any missteps in free agency.
And that’s the point.
The Chiefs navigated 2021 with less than $5 million in cap space, a situation made miles worse by an unexpected drop in the cap number due to revenue lost during the COVID-19 pandemic that kept full capacity crowds out of stadiums. But Mahomes occupied only 4% of the cap in 2021.
Those days, too, are gone. Forever.
Don’t criticize the front office for it. This is just part of the deal when you have arguably the best football player in the world. Part of the deal when you’re a Super Bowl contender. You tend to have good players. You tend to retain good players by giving them extensions and therefore more money.
The Chiefs have done the important part. They have a franchise quarterback locked up for the next decade.
Nobody in Kansas City needs to be told that some organizations go decades without that piece of the equation.
It makes it easier.
But not easy.
The Andy Reid-Brett Veach tenure will forever be graded on bringing Mahomes to Kansas City, and a Super Bowl along with him. But the full weight of their achievements rests on what more they can accomplish as the circumstances become tougher.
As in what comes next.
This story was originally published February 18, 2022 at 5:00 AM.