Chiefs’ playoff picture: KC got good and bad news Sunday in postseason race
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs rallied to win in overtime but dropped to 10th in AFC standings
- Five teams ahead of Kansas City hold tiebreakers and block seeding moves
- Playoff odds sit 42-64% across outlets while schedule ranks 22nd to finish season
It’s been a weird season for the Chiefs, and we got another example of that Sunday.
Statistically, the Chiefs have been better than a season ago, when they won 15 games and advanced to Super Bowl LIX. The Chiefs got their first one-score victory Sunday after being 12-0 a year ago (including the postseason).
They rallied from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter against the Colts and won 23-20 in overtime. That snapped a two-game losing streak and the Chiefs improved to 6-5.
Oddly, the Chiefs lost ground in the playoff race despite winning Sunday. Yeah, it’s been that kind of season.
The Chiefs entered the weekend in ninth place in the AFC conference standings. But they dropped to 10th on Sunday, which was bad news for KC.
That’s because the Ravens beat the Jets 23-10, while the Steelers lost 31-28 to the Bears. Baltimore, 6-5, moved into first place in the AFC North, supplanting Pittsburgh, which also has a 6-5 record.
The Chiefs held a tiebreaker over the Ravens based on KC’s win earlier this season. But Pittsburgh has a 5-2 record in conference games, while the Chiefs are 3-4 in that category. Thus, the Steelers are ahead of KC in the wild-card race.
Here are the AFC playoff standings:
- 1) Patriots 10-2
- 2) Broncos 9-2
- 3) Colts 8-3
- 4) Ravens 6-5 (leading AFC North)
- 5) Chargers 7-4
- 6) Jaguars 7-4
- 7) Bills 7-4
- 8) Steelers 6-5
- 9) Texans 6-5
- 10) Chiefs 6-5
The five teams directly ahead of the Chiefs currently hold tiebreakers over KC.
Chiefs playoff odds
Here are the Chiefs’ chances of making the playoffs from three outlets.
- The Athletic: 64%
- Playoff Status: 42%
- NFL Next Gen Stats: 59%
If the Chiefs lost Sunday, their playoff chances would have been just 31%, according to Next Gen Stats.
Strength of schedule
The Chiefs have the 22nd-ranked strength of schedule to finish the season, according to Tankathon.com.
That’s good news for the Chiefs because only one of the wild-card contenders has an easier slate to finish the season: the Jaguars.
Jacksonville’s remaining strength of schedule is 26th. But the Jaguars have two games against the Colts and one versus the Broncos. KC fans could be rooting for Denver at some point.
The Chargers (ninth), Ravens (11th) and Texans (12th) have the most difficult slates to finish the season among wild-card contenders.
Up next
Here are the Week 13 opponents for the Chiefs and the teams in the wild-card race.
Chiefs: at Cowboys on Thursday
Texans: at Colts
Steelers: vs. Bills
Bills: at Steelers
Jaguars: at Titans
Chargers: vs. Raiders
This story was originally published November 24, 2025 at 9:07 AM.
