Chiefs playoff picture: Two factors working against KC in postseason race
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs are 5-5 and ninth in the AFC; must win key games to earn a playoff spot.
- Poor AFC record and head-to-head losses to Jaguars, Chargers and Bills damage tiebreakers.
- Relatively tough remaining schedule plus rivals’ easier slates shrink KC margin for error.
When you looked at the Chiefs’ schedule before the season, perhaps you thought their Nov. 23 game would be between a division-leading team and another on the cusp of the postseason race.
That’s exactly what we’ve got ... but with a twist.
The Colts will visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday with an 8-2 record and leading the AFC South. The Chiefs, 5-5, are currently ninth in the playoff race and only seven teams make the postseason.
Where things stand in playoff race
While the AFC West title is technically not out of reach, just making the playoffs might be a more reasonable goal for the Chiefs.
The NFL’s website gives the Chiefs a 51% chance of qualifying for the postseason. PlayoffStatus.com has it at 30%, while the Athletic is the most bullish, giving the Chiefs a 57% chance of being in the postseason.
Here’s the current AFC playoff picture:
1. Broncos 9-2
2. Patriots 9-2
3. Colts 8-2
4. Steelers 6-4
5. Bills 7-3
6. Chargers 7-4
7. Jaguars 6-4
8. Texans 5-5
9. Chiefs 5-5
In addition to not having enough victories to qualify for the postseason, there are two factors working against the Chiefs in the playoff race.
Tiebreakers work against Chiefs
The reason for the Chiefs being behind Houston despite the teams having the same overall record is how they’ve fared in conference games.
The Chiefs are 2-4 against AFC opponents, while Houston is 4-2. The good news for the Chiefs is they play the Texans later this season and a win would give them the tiebreaker over Houston. But that conference record could end up biting the Chiefs down the line.
Head-to-head tiebreakers are one of the things hurting the Chiefs, too. The Chiefs lost to three teams directly ahead of them in the playoff standings: the Jaguars, Chargers and Bills. Fortunately for the Chiefs, they get another crack at the Chargers this season, but LA is 3-0 in division games while the Chiefs are 1-2.
Strength of schedule
The Chiefs have the 12th most difficult remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.com. That’s not terrible, but the bigger issue is only three teams ahead of KC have a more difficult slate of games: Colts (No. 4), Texans (No. 5) and Chargers (No. 8).
Jacksonville’s strength of schedule ranks 28th in the NFL, while the Broncos are 21st and Bills 18th.
Although the Chiefs have a tiebreaker on the Ravens, who have a 5-5 record, Baltimore has won four straight and has a slightly easier schedule. The Steelers lead the North with a 6-4 record, and their strength of schedule is also a tad easier than the Chiefs.
The Chiefs will need to win more games — while having other teams lose to boost their playoff hopes.
Here’s a sign of how the Chiefs season is going: Tankathon has KC as one of the easiest opponents other teams will face.
This story was originally published November 17, 2025 at 9:53 AM.
