Analytics show Chiefs-Broncos game will have massive impact on AFC West race
The Denver Broncos won a fifth straight AFC West title in 2015 on their way to being crowned Super Bowl 50 champions.
Since the Broncos last won a division crown, the Chiefs have hogged the spotlight. They’ve won nine straight AFC West titles, but their chances of getting No. 10 could be significantly altered by their game Sunday in Denver.
Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy shared how simulations are affected by who wins the Chiefs-Broncos game.
For starters, the FTN Fantasy simulations showed the Broncos winning the West 58% of the time following Denver’s victory Thursday over the Raiders. The Chiefs were at 32%
But if the Broncos beat the Chiefs on Sunday, Denver’s chances of taking the division jump to 82% in those simulations, while the Chiefs drop to 9%. Should the Chiefs top the Broncos, Kansas City wins the AFC West 51% of the time in those FTN simulations and Denver drops to 37%.
That’s quite a swing, right?
Another outlook
The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator shows the Chiefs currently have a 25% chance of winning the AFC West, while the Broncos are at 47%.
If the Chiefs win Sunday, their chances of topping the division increase to 38%, while the Broncos would fall to 33%. Should Denver top KC, the Chiefs’ chances will drop to 7%.
This story was originally published November 10, 2025 at 8:57 AM.
